WHAT WILL WHEAT BE WORTH IN 1870?

Hawke's Bay Times, Volume 14, Issue 732, 4 November 1869, Page 3

WHAT WILL WHEAT BE WORTH IN 1870?

(From the Australasian.) With the prospect of some years of plenty after the late seasons of comparative scarcity and high prices, this is a question now being seriously discussed in different parts of the world. The English farmer is tolerably safe, as he has shipping and other contingent expenses in his favor against all competitors but in the great exporting countries it is of the utmost moment to ascertain if prices are likely to fall below the minimum at which wheat can be grown or not. With Europe we have nothing to do, as low prices there only affect us indirectly; but when prices are low elsewhere, Californian shippers watch our markets very closely, and keep them supplied if they see a chance of clearing their freight. For some years the Eastern States required all the surplus from their territory on the Pacific, and the late high prices in Europe afforded a market for it there, so that we have had no reason to notice particularly the magnitude to which the wheat growing interest of California has expanded. But now that they have a few hundred thousand tons of last year's crop on hand still, with prices falling in Europe, and the prospect of this year's crop being greater by a third than that of last, we are likely to be made to feel again rather acutely the competition in breadstuffs from the other great gold-pro-ducing country. Wheat from California before alarmed our farmers, and almost made them forswear the growth of it; and they must now prepare for a still more severe contest, unless present prospects should prove altogether deceptive. The surplus of California is not now reckoned by bushels or centals and by hundreds of thousands of tons, but the harvest now commencing was expected to yield a third more than was ever gathered before. And how will it fare with the farmers here if it should be deemed advisable to distribute half of this surplus amongst the Australian colonies, say 100,000 tons or so of wheat and flour? This possibility renders it a momentous question with us what wheat can be growu at, and we find in a late Californian paper an estimate that will somewhat astonish our country readers. It used to be said that 8s a bushel would just cover expenses here. Perhaps 5s would be the minimum with many now, or possibly holders of very good land might say 43 a bushel would just enable them to pay their rent, and no more, but what would be thought of 6d or Is a bushel, and that in a goldproducing country, with labor rather higher than with us? Yet this is what we find in the market report of the paper before referred to: — " Wheat can be raised and placed ready for market, not only at the low price of 25 cents [ls] a bushel, but it can be grown at a cost of one bit [6.l] per bushel, as the actual cost of ploughing, and planting and harvesting the same; and added to this, the cost of sacks, interest on land, &c, twenty-

five cents will be the outside cost o raising wheat in California by thost who thoroughly understand the of wheat on a large scale, as the businesswill be conducted in future years foj shipping purposes " Tims, the farmer? of California would seem to be prepay ing themselves for low prices, and if those who can grow wheat the lowesi are to win, they will not be easilybeaten. They are going in for the use of machinery to the utmost, trusting to quantity to pay them, and with our pettifogging system of farming we shall have no chance in the competition. Allowing eighteen-pence for for freight and merchant's charges, Californian wheat may be landed here in favorable years at half-a-crown a bushel, and what proportion of our farmers can grow it at that ? It may be long before prices descend to these extreme rates, but the possibility should not be lost sight of.