ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES

Hawke's Bay Herald-Tribune, Volume 81, Issue 29, 28 October 1937, Page 9

ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES

REPLY TO CRITICS 1

Charge That Figures Are Misinterpreted IMPROVEMENT CLAIMED - "Statemcnts recently in newspapers and specches made by Opposition members of Parliament on the extent of unemployment in New Zealand make it necessary for me to draw attention to some further facts in connection with unemployment returns," says the 'Min ister of Labour, Hon. H. T. Armstrong, in a statement issued by him. "The monthly returns published by the Labour Department from time to time are being misinterpreted in an attempt to prove:

"First, that having regard to the improvement in ,the Dominions income, due to higher prices for our exportable products, tho reduction m unemployment has not been as great as it should have been. "Secondly, that by comparison with other countries the increase in emyioyment has not been satisfactory. "Thirdly, that any substantial reduction should have made a reduction in unemployment tax possible. "It has also been suggested that as our economic conditions are somewhat °h a par with those of 1929, unemployment should now have been xemoved completely, seeing that little or none existed before the sltunp period.

In the first place it is necessary to clear up the complete misunderstanding which is revealed in this last assertion, " Mr Armstrong said. " It is quito inaccurate to say that in the pre-crisi3 years there was little or no unemployment in New Zealand. New Zealand economieally involves a larger proportion of seasonal employment in contrast to steady full-time employment than is probably the case in any other known conntry, at least within the British Empire. As a resnlt, considerable unemployment of the normal short-dated character has been evident for very anany years in the Dominion. What the Census Shows. "Prior to tha enactment of the unemployment legislatioa in 1930, under which provision for a more exact rdcord oi unemployment Wa? made for the first time in this country, the oaly complete meana by which the extent of unemployment could be revealed was in the census returns. The census figures show that in 1896 there were 15,000 unem-

ployed wage-earners in New Zealand ou ' the night the census was taken. In 1916 the corresponding figure was 6000, the reason for this comparatively low figure being ihe exceptional conditions associftted with the war. i "In 1926, in which year there was a | Jbuilding boom, the census showed that H there were 10,700 male wage-earners out of employment at the date of the .Census. Nevertheless, unemployment was not at that timo considered a very serious factor in the country 's economy, but two years later still, at the height of New Zealand 's prosperity, the problem had grown fo such serious dimensions as to cause the then Governmerit" to appoint a committee of inquiry, the xeport of which resulted in the preseni unemployment legislatlon. "There was no census in 1931, when the depression had really commenced. Had there been, it would have been more easily possible to demonstrate the improvement to-day as against the depression period.

"It is with the figures indicating normal unemployment that our existing statistics must be compared if a proper comparison showing improvement oi otherwise is to be .made. " What is stated here indicates that during the period covered by these census returns the average number of unemployed wage-earners in the country was 4} per cent. To-day there are 460,090 males between the ages of 20 and 65 who are liable for payment of the levy. At least 250,000 of these are wageearners. It may be safely stated, then, that on the basis of 4i per cent. of always existent unemployment, at least 11,000 under the existing economic system would be normally without work, whether the unemployment legi'slation was on the Statute Book or not. Inflationary Factors. "Beverting to the published monthly return, there are other factors tending to infiate the figures. The return covers not merely the unemployed, but includes, for instanee, gold prospectors who are grub-staked out of the Employment Promotion Fund while working on

their own claims. In this country there has always been a number of men following this occupation. It can therefore be said that they are in normal employment.

"The latest return, set out hereunder, taken as at September 25, includes 11,397 men working in full-time employment under award conditions, many of whom are completely tmawaro of their mclusion in returns of unemployment. The return also mcludes old men over pension age who are unable to follow their usual occupation and are not yet qualified to receive the old-age pension. It includes also many others who through physical or mental disabilitiea are tinfit. to take any normal employment. "Thousands in this latter category are nof properly classified as unemployed, and if and wlien the National Health, and Superannuation Soheme is introduced, would be provided for under that heading. In the absence of this seheme, however, some provision had to be made for them, and this was provided last year by amending the unemployment legislation. "The amendment passed last sessiou allows me to provide assistance in accordance with the other provisions in thq Aet to persons out of employmonlj

assistance7 How many there are on the Employment Fund because they need assistance for reasons other than unemployment I will inddcate later in this statement, and if their number were deducted from the unemployment figures, as might reasonably be done, it would be seen at once that very much greater inroads have been made on the unemployment problem than revealed by the statistics as now published. "With this explanation I desire to set out* the figures for August and September, indicating in greater detail how the figures are compiled. Aug-. 28, Sept. 25, 1937. 1937. Resristered but not elisrible or not placed on relief 2,371 2,229 Receiving rationed reilef work under No. 5 Scheme 4,979 4,714 Receiving sustenanco without work 19,973 18,110 Receiving full-time employment wholly or partly paid from the iimployment Promotion Fund 9,993 11,397 Totals 37,361 36,450

"If the totals of these two columns are taken, the decrease is shown to be 366, but if the figures for those on fulltime employment are ignored in each iolumn and only those on sustenance oi without regular full-time employment taken into account, the September figares show a reduction of 2270 between the period of the August and September agures. Men on Sustenance. "Complaint is continually made about the number of men on sustenance, but it must be pointed out that a great majority of those remaining on sustenance ire more or less physically uofit for ordinary employment, and draw - benefit from the fund only because in the ab-

sence of other adequate forms of relief I have exercised the extended powers alluded to above. How greatly the unemployment figures would be diminished if these men were excluded is shown by the f ollowing faets: — "The September sustenance total is 18,110, and this figure includes 2895 single men and 5604 married men who were quito unable at the date of the return to undertake any normal work; 181 single men and 373 married men, according to the reports of our district officers, were only temporarily incapacitated through sickness, but 2714 single. men and 5231 married men of the abovo totals are reported as being more or less continually unable to accept employment in either normal or light work. It is seen, therefore, that of the sustenance total of 18,110, some 8,499 men were actnally unemployable at the date of the return. "The law, as it stands, has given me power to exclude them from relief or to I accept them as being in necessitous 'circumstances. What I have had to de|cide is whether I would exclude them ;even though they were caused distinct jhardship or whether I would allow the jUnemployment figures greatly to exceed iwhat would be the figure if the real unI employment problem were actually imeasured. J Scheme Five Workers. } Under this scheme to-day the work-l er is employed at standard award ratesi for the timo he works. The weekly amount that he may earn has been in-' creased, and in a number of caaes the local authorities employing the men arel supplementing the wages over andj above that allowed from the Unemploy-i ment Fund. It is disclosed from the' centres that many of these men are carning from relief, plus supplementary " wages paid by the employing authorities or from private employment, up to the basic wage. It must be remembered that many of the scheme five workers to-day are in no worse position than oasual workers in ordinary induktry, where their wages are subject to deduction through wet weather and other causes.

"Having thus explained Ihe figures, I propose to set out the September return as it should appear in order that it may be really comparable with returns published in other countries. As at September 28. On sustenance waiting placement 9661 Registered but not on relief 2 229 On scheme 5 relief 4714 * — Total ( 16,604 On sustenance, totally unfit for employment i'or health or other reasons, but being afforded relief from the employment fund 8499 "The above total, which is a very detailed and absolutely correct statement of the unemployment position, demonstrates beyond question that unemployment to-day is not as widespread or prevalent as is being imputed, and is aow, in fact, no little different in extent from what was disclosed as lhsing normal by the census returns in the years mentioned." I ' ■ •