Will The League Survive?

Hawke's Bay Herald-Tribune, Volume 81, Issue 7, 1 October 1937, Page 7

Will The League Survive?

"Senex")

THRICE FL0UTED Nations Wary of Making Sacrifices AND NOW THE FAR EAST

(By

Tbe Sino-J&panese conflict wbicb bas now reacbed tbe administrative mill at Geneva has come at a particulariy unfortunate time and is a blow wbicb the League of Nations may feel even more keenly than any that precoded it. Mus* solini rebuffed Geneva over Corfu a dozen years ago; Japan brushed tbe League aSide wben it came athwart ber patb in. tbe Far East at the time of Manchuria; Italy removed mucb of its underpinning by ber brigandage in Etbiopia. Does it now reinain for Japan, wbicb iirst seriously cballeugcd tbis -4V estern creation, to deal tbe iinal blow? At tbe moment it looks very like it. For tbe old League perisbed at tbe time of tbe Abyssi'nian aft'air; tbere could b0 no more life for a system oi collective Security on that basis and tbe Britisb Government bas long propared plans for a new and more workable League based on tbe sure selfinterest of regional pacts. RCform of the League was tbo urgent issue and reform of tbo Leaguo was to bave beOn broaehed at the present session of tbe Ass'enibly. ' But befor^ any re-making 0f the Geneva body ean be brougbt about a new crisis in tbe East bas brougbt fresh appeals frOin Obina^ MancbUria and After Tbe Mancburian crisis couid be explained away by tbe friends of tbe League on tbe gfound that China bad liever mvoked Articlo 15, wbicb calls for submiBsion of tbe matter to the Oouncil, and tbat consequently tbere was no causo for tbe drastic action wbicb latcr was taken against ltaly. It is a lcgalistio arguinent but tbe League deals witb mafctcrs of interna^ tional law and it may be beld valid on tbat ground. • Nevertbeless tbe practical efl^ect of it was disastrous. It resulted, arnong other tbings, m enraging tbe Italians when tbey rcalised that Articlo 16 (tbe "sanctions" Article) wbich bad never been applied agaibst tbo Japaneso was to b© employed against them. And tbe outcome of tbe Abyssinian affair, tbe futile attempt at sanetions, tbe laek of any real fivjnt prescnted to tbe nation about to commit an act of intornational brigandage, bas resulted in a generali fligbt mto .Tieutrality, Wberea-s tbe mood at Geneya was- one of rOlief wben Sir Samuel Hoaro announeed Britain's intention to stand by the principle of collective security ut tbe time of the League eonsideration of tbe matter, to-day collective security is somet'hing tbat exisfcs. no longor as a political possibility. Tacitly, the Governments of Europe bave abandoned their obligations under the Covenant and no-one knows tbis better tban tbe representatives of tbe two nations wbicb give tbe impetus to League actions', Britain and France. Tbe use of tbe financial and economic weapon remains a possibility, yet even here some Governments bav© left no shadow of doubt as to the line of iudifference wbich tbey would follow. Military ACtloa NeCessary Tbe post-Abyssinian war belief is that economic and financial sanetions alone are not enough to bring an offender to book, that tbey must bo accoinpanied by military action as well, And as some Of tbe nations injured them' selves by tbeir loyalty to tbe League two years ago tbey bave reason to re» member tbis fact. . The Yugoslavs, for lnstance, wbo sent one-quarter of nll tbeir esports to Italy and willingly imposcd a ban upon them, now rcmembor with cynicism that, as a compensation, M, Laval offered to ihcreaso by 11 bor,sea tbeir import * fjuotas France. 1 Tho situatlon bas become so marked, indced, tbat mutual agreement between France and Britain bas resulted in tbo proposals to reform the League boing sbolvcd until somo future time. Tbo ro bas, signiiicantly, not been a siaglo rei'erence to tbis matter of reform of fho Covenant in tbe speechos of theleading fitutesmen of tbo two countries ±'6r some timo past; '■* One of the plans for re-making tho Covenant, advocated in Britain by Lord Eustace Percy among otbere, isV tbat there sbould be no obHgation to Jbitt in ■ any economic blockade against ah aggressor State until tbe troops of some League nations are actually on tbe move against tbe ofl'endor. It is a suggesfion wbicb would eud tho dividing line between economic and- military actron and in the- present mood of Europe it is quite impossible. • * ' Tho Rumanians, the PoleS, the Yugoslavs, all tbe more important of tho secoftd-class Powers, aro in. favour of making eeOnomic sanetions pureiy op-^ tional in .future. The inevitable rosult'; of this attitudo has been tbe dropping of tbe plan of reconstmction lest what little remains of "collective security" sbould vanisb. Rumania and Poljiud, for infetance, have latterly been dallying witb Gcrmany and Italy, endeavouring to obtain assuranceS for- tbe future wbicb will renew the confidenco tbat tbe failure of the League bas takou from them. Into a Geneva of this character the Sino- Japaneso crisis is now thrown. Wbat can tho League do about it? Impose economic sanetions? Not for a moment, Take military or naval action ? Impossible; Japan is a fir.st-class Power singularly -strongly entrencbod. Week cooperation with* fbe jUnited States to end tbe attair? Tbat "is tbe one praetifiable way of taking effectiv#» action, as Japan is vulnerablO pnly to the "tTnited States in the matter of trado and tho TJnited States bas a greater interest in keeping Japan oif tho mainland of Cbina than any other country save Britain and Russia. But the TTnited States bas retreated into lsolation and President Roosevelt has no intention, of flghting toi dofond

American investments; bo bas said ffo more than once. Japan could act mucb more provocatively tban sho bas ever yet done and escape witbout anytbing more unpmasant tban. tbe moral condemnation which sbe appears vory well able to bear. But suppose tbat eome member Power of tbe League doos endeavour to Obtain action by tbe Assembly, as seems probable. Suppose M. Litvinoff or Mr Jordan, imbued witb tbe deslre for national defence or tb0 idealism of intornational justice, pusbes matters to tbe point where tbe League bas to take a vote on a decisiv0 point of policy towards tbe Sino-Japanese war. Then, unlessa formula is skilfully de•yised, there will be tbe unhappy risk of tbo League exposing its present futility, and exposing it through tbe pififul revelation tbat tbe nations witbin its ranks are no longer willing to stand by the ideals to wbicb tbey givo lip service. That is eometbing whicb even Geneva, which has many virtues and immense possibilities, xnigbt barely eurvive. t