DANGER IN THE FAR EAST

Hawke's Bay Herald-Tribune, Issue 156, 20 July 1937, Page 4

DANGER IN THE FAR EAST

To-day' s news'from Ckina and Japan indicates that war is likely to take the place of long-drawn negotiations at which the Chinese have always shown themselves to be more adept than their opponents. Relations between Japan and China are always puzzling to the western mind. It should always be remembered that tha Oriental mind is infinitely more subtle in its working than that of the European and prediction beeomes correspondingly more difficult. Two factors appear to be fairly fixed. The Chinese people and military are unwilling to submit to further encroachments by the Japanese, and the militarists of Japan are eager to show their capacity for driving their diplomacy home with tanks and aeroplanes. Although the Chinese people are united there are real differences of opinion in Japan as to the wisdom of further military adventures. Once the fighting begins in earnest, however, the Japanese will respond unhesitatingly to patriotie appeals. The industrialists of Japan want the Chinese market, the financiers want the field for investment, and Chinese raw materials and minerals are sorely needed in the islands. Civil governments have always advocated peace. Mr. 5Tuki, when he was eleeted pTesident of the Tokio Chamber of Commerce, aslced earnestly for an understanding, and when he became Minister of Finance it was expected that th© Government would refleet the policy he advocated. Mr. Sato announced that he intended to revise the whole policy towards China. It is true that next day, under pressure from the Army, he modified the statement, but there were many signs of better feeling. Once again it is apparently the Japanese Army in Kwantung that is the distufbing factor. . This army seems almost to be independent of Government control. Organised originally to meet the growing Communist threat in Shensl, it coustitutes a constant danger to the Chinese p6aee of mind, and probably more than any other single factor it has been responsible for the remarkable unifieation movement that has developed in China in the last few years. When the notorious attack was made on Shanghai in 1934 there was not the semblanee of uftity, but under the leadership of men like Wang Ghing-wei and Chiang Kai-shek the Japanese threats have been turned aside by concession and compromise, the currency has been stabilised, commnnications have been improved, the Communists have been scattered, the.northern and south-western groups 'have been teconciled to the central administration, and finally the disaffected generals in Shensi, who kidnapped Chiang, have made their submissiOn. Probably China is not yet able to face Japian on anything like equal terms, but there is a growing strength and a growing national consciousness. The dangerous incidents in the north are not yet cleared up, and in the end the Japanese generals will probably have their way and the Chinese governor will be instructed to tender the apology -- and reparation demanded. But Nanking has taken an unexpectedly firm stand. Tho sitnation is dangerous, with far-rciaehing international consequences, but it is wise to avoid predictions when dealing with the Ocient.