Falling Population

Hawke's Bay Herald-Tribune, Issue 46, 10 March 1937, Page 12

Falling Population

v Big Problems Before the World

Ff his speech last year when opening I the Budget, Mr. Nevllle Chamberlain] ttrew attention to the new sefc of probIotww which "the progressive decrease in our population" is going to raiss. They ara vast and terrifying problems which tfemand the closest study (writes H. M. Milson, in an English exchange), The hour is at hand when England's population will decrease. It has risen eontinuously for the last 250 years. It doUbled itself between 1801 and 1851; it doubled itself once more between 1851 and 1911. But now this *> aufcomatic advance is ceasing. V- 3 are approaching ons of the turning points in world history. Br. Grace Leybourne, a statistaeian of special authority, after a detailed investigation of the Sgures, has calculasted that a deflnite decline in the English population will begin in 1941. By 1951 the population will have fallen from 40,500,000 to 38,500,000. By 1975 it will have been h'alved and will fall to 10,000,000. This calculation assumes that fertility will continue at its present leveL There are experts whp regard that as an optimisitic assumption. Dr. Enid Charles, another statistician, of distinction, calculates that if the rate of fertilifcy should cpntinue to fall as it is at present doing. a century henee the population of England will have shrunk to only 4,426,000. It will naturally be asked whether faith can be placed in such calculations. The answer is that the stafcistioians of the world are in tolerably close agree* ment. Only Small Error, *1,T OKEOVER, there is the fact that- in •4" 1021 calculations of the probable population in 1931 were made in "the Kegistrar-General's ofSce for non-official uae. "VThen the 1931 census returns were available, the error in the estimates was only 0.13 per cent.— a negligible amount. The decline ip population ia not going to be peculiar to Great Britain, taough in her case it threatens to be marked and much more dangerous than in other oountries. In Erance, the low birth-rate has for 50 years been causing anxiety, and there a drpp in population from 42,000,000 to 39,000,000 is anticipated by 1980, the decline setting in next year. Tn Germany, ever since the Nazi advent to power, there has been anxiety abput the birth-rate, which has shown a distinct tendency to fall. A positive decline in the population is predicted by Ihe biometricians from 1846. onwards. According to Kahn's estimate— prepared befote Herr Hitler's remedial ineaaures were put into force— it will sink from its present figure of 65,000,000 to less than 50,000,000 by 1975; or, by Burgdorfer'a calculations, it will fall to 47,000,000 in 2000. The most irnportant exceptton to the world-ride decline is likely to be Russla, perhaps because her civilisaticn is too rudiment&ry to be affected by the myBtorious forpes at work. The present population of aboyt 150,000,000 is egpected to double itself in the next 60 years. A Russla of 300,000,000 inhabitants confronting a Europe with Hi-iniriVen and sinking population will be an even graver problem than the unwieldy, heavily-armed Soviet State of to-day. i

The reasoa for Herr Hitler's strenuous eiforts to increase the German birthrate is now olear. The pretentlous RusSia of ihe future will be a tremendous peril to Germany. As yet, however, Herr Hitler's measures have produced disappointing results, though it is true that they have raised the number of bU'ths from 978,000 in 1930 to 1,181,000 in 1934. ? In the opinion of Professor CarrSaunders, the best British authority on the subject, "all that has happened so far is that an unusually large number of first births have been crowded into a year, and an abiding change has been produced in Ihe rate of fertility." He thjnks the forces at work too powerful to be readily mastered. In Italy the case is much the same. There, too, the Governraent is doing its utmost to increase the birth-rate and to make Italy one of the most prolific nations. Expert Verdlct. "OUT there, too, the expert verdict is that its measures have not permanently increased the number of births, tbpugh they may have encouraged marriage and prevented the birth-rate from falling more rapidly than ifc has done. In Asia's most highly civilised State, Japan, Ihere are distinct indications that forces unfavourable to fertility are at work though her population is still lncreasing, and will probably continue to increase for another twenty yearsr-till it reaches 80,099,000. But, according tp Mr. Crocker, who studied the- problem on the spot, Japan's pepple are marrying at a later date or avoiding marriage, dpspite strong soclal pressure upon them to marry. Such is a bird's-eye view of the population" problem in some of the world's typical States. What stands out is its menace to the British Empire. If the population of Qreat Britain sank by 10,000,000 or 20,000,000 there could be no steady flow of emigrants to the Dpftiinions overseas, where the population now tends to stagnation or decline. Small Families, rpHE authorities on the subject are 1 agreed with a singular unanimity that the small family customary to-day is the true cause of the world-wide movement pf depopulation. They can point to the ancient Greeks, among whom the same influences were seen at work. To change from the small family, in which the number of children is deliberately limited, will not be ep,sy. it will be a case of the cradle versus comfort, and will involve drastic changes In our housing schemes, which bave boycotted Ihe baby, as garages have replaced nurseries. It is particularly noteworthy in this connection that, where the standard if comfort is highest, there the decline in the birth-rate is most marked. Action is plearly required, but of what character should it be? Here the biometricians do not help us. Professor Carr-Saunders has no doubt as to the urgency of the matter or the stupendous difBculties which will have to be overcome. He holds that there must be a reform In the outlook upon marriage as the prelude.