THE OUTLOOK FOR WAR.

Hawke's Bay Herald-Tribune, Issue 30, 19 February 1937, Page 4

THE OUTLOOK FOR WAR.

The vasi programme of rearmament upon which Great Britain . has entered inf erentia'lly f oreshado ws at least the possibilifcy of a big war in which si^ may become involved. There is, 0>i Bourse, not the least prospect that she will be the one to sta*rt it, for all her interests call for the preservation of peace. It is, indeed, mainly with this object in view that she has set herself to recover a position from which she can commarjtid the balance of fighting power and so restrain action on the part of a would-be aggressor. This, for the time being at any rate and until the princijjle of cojle.ctive securjfty is accepted among the Great Powers, is the only logicail attitude she can very well adopt, unless she is preparedl to lay herself and her dominions open to attack. On the other hand, of course, it has to be considered whether the very immensity of the preparations the British Government deems necessary does not amount to a confes* siojq of present weakness that may very well stir the aggressive nations already we'll prepared for war to take early action. The outlook in this respeet is being very fully discussed in both newspaper and review articles in the Old Country and the general trend of opinion seems to be that, however desirous the countries from which danger of an put- ! ' break is to be feared may be to increase and extend their 1 power neither is for the moment jn a position to attempt it by military means. Both Germany and Italy are heavily militarised and haye certainly large, well trained and fully equipped for.ces ready to be put in the field. At the same time, however, the financial resources of both have been pretty well exhausted in thus preparing for war. In both countries the people have been ealled upon for sacrifices to this end that have admittpdly a,bout reached their limit. Notwithstanding the high spirit of patriotic natio»alism that has heen aroused, the privations that have been entailed are beginning »to have their effect, which is only enhanced by enviously noting Great Brijtain's economic recovery and social "advancement while pursuing the paths of peace. In Italy the effervescence of the Abys' sinian triumph is quickly dying down. and it will be some considerable time before Signor Mussolini can show any practical return for the heavy price paid. \ It may therefore be assumed with fair confidence thjat so far as either the German or the Italian people are concerned they have little .desire to find themselves once more plung.ed into a great war of which the horrors will be incomparably worse than those of 1914-18, still fresh in many memprieS; As for Russia, it may be assumed that her policy, for at least some years to come, will be to avoid any big military undertaking. She has her hands very full with the economic development of her own unlimited resources, apd for this the maintenance of peace is almost an essential. At the same time, however, she is quite strong enough in a military sensetto make Germany think seriously before indulging 7 in any eastward aggressive moy.ement. Herr Hitler's own military advisers have warned him against the futilitj and folly of attempting any drive against Russia, while Japan's alliance with Germany is proving to be only a? very halfhearted affair which Japan is already regrettirig. The broad conclusion that is drawn is that there is no great danger of any early outbreak of war, unless it should be precipitated by some unhappy "incident" that cannot be foreseen. There is also, of course, always the possibility of orie or other of the dietatorial rulers fee'ling it necessary to stir trouble abroad in order to divert attention from internal discontent. As one military writer puts it, "armaments of themselves do not bring war, but when the financial pressure to pay for them becomes too great, there may be no other alternative.,> Tlowever, even though both the German and the Italian people are undoubtedly feelling the economic stress imposed by the militaristic ambitions of their leaders, there are as yet no gravely disturbing symptoms of - their doing other than submit quietly to it.