MARKETS OVERSEAS

Hawke's Bay Herald-Tribune, Issue 9, 26 January 1937, Page 7

MARKETS OVERSEAS

Pi'C38 AB8ocIation. i

Can N.Z. Assume Limitless Expansion? NAT10NAL1SM ABROAD

(By I'elegraph—

AUCKLAND, Jan. 25, Observations made by Professor H. Belshaw, Dean of the Faculty of Commerce af Auckland University College, while he was in the United States last year, -lead him to the conviction that New Zealand has little chance of negotiating trade agreements, with America that would lead to increased importation by America of butter and meat. He said upon his return by the Niagara that some elight concessions ' might be made but political pressure by farming interests in America would be too strong to permit oi any su.listantial lowering of existing barriers. It was doubtful if the assumption of a limitless expanding market for New Zealand produets was any ionger valid, said the professor. During the 12 months he was abroad he made a special study of relief measures applied to agriculture. Practically every country had promoted such measures, and nearly every importing country had embodied restriction upon imports, While it was difficult to prophesy political events it seemed likely that those restrictions would continue. Agrarian nationalism seemed deeply rooted, thus making it very difficult to expand trade in primary produets whether by trade agreements or in other ways. A second feature was the probable trend of population. Many countries, including Great Britain, wero ap« proaching their maximum populations and the consensus of expert opinion was that in a deeade or two there was likely to be a declirib in population. Women of child-bearing age in most European countries were not at present replacing themselves, said Professor Belshaw. These points had an obyious bearing upon future markets. He had had opportunities of notinQ reactions to proposals for greater immigration into Australia and New Zealand. Capacity to ahsorb such immigrants without lowering the standard of living was clearly affected by nationalism and population and in the •immediate future, immigration would tend to make the solution of the unemployment problem more difficult. In more distant future it might well make th.e situation more difficult ?till to adju&t eqonomic couditious in New Zealand with those in the rest of the world, In other words the immigrant might be more useful to New Zealand if he remafned at home.