POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE.

Globe, Volume XXIV, Issue 2538, 29 May 1882, Page 3

POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE.

[jpaoil THE “ PBEgS.”I

WELLINGTON, May 28.

Sir Q. Grey’s speech on the Native question is still the talk of the lobbies. Everybody is asking his neighbor what it portends, and nobody has yet been enabled to evolve a satisfactory answer. Sir Goo. Grey’s personal adherents, of course, declare roundlv that hi* utterance was dictated solely by a feeling of honor and a desire to do justice; that ns ’ilr Bryce’s policy was in its conception substantially identical with that of the Grey Government, and was indeed simply a continuation of the course initiated by that Ministry, Sir George could not in common consutency do other than support it: But this t heory does not find favor with the majority, who know how easily Sir George would hsve found an excuse for opposing it tooth and nail, and denouncing it with the utmost bitterness had it suited him to do so. Indeed, as a matter of fact it was fully expected that while defending tho principle cf dealing with the West Coast question in the way his Government had commenced, he would utterly condemn the manner of its doing by Mr Bryce and Mr Rolleston. He was understood to contemplate a withering censure of the destruction of the Native crops, the transactions with friendly Natives, and the detention of Te Whiti and Tohu without trial. Still more tho proposal that their detention in custody should be indefinitely prolonged, and all idea of trial abandoned. Such being the general and well founded anticipation, it may be imagined what a surprise his eloquent defence of Mr Bryce was to tho House generally, and how much gossip it has given rise to outside of Sir Q. Grey’s immediate friends. There are two distinct opinions entertained as to his wishes. Some believe that the speech was intended as the earliest possible declaration that Sir G. Grey was not going to be dragged at the chariot wheels of Mr Montgomery or Mr Macandrew, but intended to keep the balance of power in his own hands, and to use his strength in this respect with decisive effect when suitable opportunity should arise. It must bo remembered that should only three or four “ doubtfuli ” declare for the Opposition Sir G. Grey would be absolutely master of the situation, because he and hia knot of personal followers could turn tho scale of victory either way. On the other hand the Haoindrew-Mont-gomery party declare that Sir George’s speech will alienate some of his most devoted adherents, and will thus strengthen and consolidate the now Opposition party. But it has also to be recollected that as yet not the cmallest ground has been shown for assuming that the Government are in a minority. In fact on the Opposition’s own figures of a few dsya ago, Ministers must be quite safe, for they counted both Mr W. Green and J. Stevens (Eangitikei), who attended their preliminary caucus, and then reckoning all that were “ accounted for,” estimated their strength at forty-eight, which of course would have left the Government with only forty-six at the most. But Mr Green took the earliest opportunity of repudiating them in the House, and explaining that he attended through a misconception, and tlr Slovens has renounced them and all their works with equal decisiveness in the lobbies. So taking their figures of forty-eight, and deducting those who are known to have been wrongly reckoned, also adding these to the Government side tho figures are exactly reverted, and the Government side show forty-eight and the Opposition, forty-six. Ei.t I am not at all disposed fo accept the latter. F-cm what I can learn bi to the state cf fueling in the House, I should be more inclined to take two or three more from the Oppeoitioa and give them to Ministers. However, only time can show whether I am right in my estimate. With so many novices and professed “donbtfuls it is very difficult to gauge the prospects of the first inaportant division, and certainly the Ministerial party seems hardening and consolidating daily, it being very skilfully and quietly engineered by experienced hands. Meetings and caucuses have hitherto been judiciously avoided, but it is intended to hold them early in the week, unless circumstances should render them undesirable. The Opposition, on the contrary, seem becoming more and more disorganised. The leadership now appears to be gravitating again toward Mr Macandrew, I: was quite certain at the beginning of the week that Mr Montgomery, although not formally elected, was distinctly understood to be chosen loader and recognised as such. But his mild and moderate speech on the Address in -Reply was n;t hotly spiced enough for bis associates, especially for such men as Messrs Holmes and Hutchison, whom nothing ehort of the most blatant radicalism, and something very like communism, will satisfy. There is scid to be great jealousy between Mr toolmcs and Mr Montgomery, while some of the Otago men object strongly to both of thorn, and the Aucklanders have no great love for Mr Macandrew ; the Greyite contingent, moreover, remaining staunch to the bright cf Kawau, as being their heaven-bom and only possible leader, however they may “ dissemblo” for a time. With all t hese elements of disorganisation and division in a new Parliament nearly half composed of members fresh to public life, unused to the restraints of party discipline, end excessively disinclined to give up their independence on personal fads for the sake of pulling together, it ir not difficult to see that the Government have things in their own hands, if only they conduct tbs business with prudence and judgment. It has been conjectured that Sir George Groy’j speech may have been a bid for the support of the more moderate men in the Opposition ranks, and may point to an inclination for some sort of coalition in the fu'ure, shin'd matters come to a deadlock through the ev;n balance of parties.

At present, however, Ministers seem to hell the long end of tho stick, excepting on ana unlucky point, tho Chairmanship of Committees. It now turns out that soma oi tho Otago Ministerialists were actively canvassed on Mr Thomson’s behalf bsfore they came up to Wellington, and wera parsuadod that the question was in no way a Ministerial one, but was simply Otago v Auckland ; that Auckland having already posrtsi.cd the Premiership, and secured the Speakership, tv-3 33 infinitely greedy as to grasp at tho Chairmanship also; that it was due to Otago tbit "no prizs, at all events,‘should fall to be: share.

So they agreed to vote for Mr Thomson, but now are very sorry for their rashness, and seme even talk of walking out of the House when the division comes on, without voting at all. Several absent momfcerc aro expected by Tuesday, and may alter the situation somewhat, but in any case it must be a very close thing. The odds are slightly ngaiujt HuratJ but his case is by no means dc£p-.rit-3 ao yet, A rumor was freely circulated jesterday that he had determined to withdraw itia candidature, but I am assured that this is ~:t accurate, and that he will fight the matter out to the last. It wag also rumored that it had been proposed to the [Opposition that they should withdraw Thomson, end the other side withdraw Hurst, with a view to putting in Hamlin ; but if such a proposal wore ever made at all, which is very doubtful, it came to nothing. It was obviously necessary, as there had to be s smuggle, to delay it until the forces should be on the field. It will positively coma off on Tuesday, and I fancy will be a very ‘' tight fit," whatever the result. I do not think there is much chance of the budget coming down before Tuesday week, -;a there is likely to be much more talk yet ca Native affairs. Mr Sheehan is to make a “ big ” speech on Tuesday, end Mr Holmcj, I believe, a still “ bigger one.” Ministers were in Cabinet nearly all yesterday, and sat till late in the evening. It is understood that the financial statement was under consideration. Nothing, of course, was allowed to transpire as to the fixed plans of the Government, but it is whispered that some important and very acceptable remissions of taxation are to be proposed, and several material changes in our financial system. The report of the Volunteer Board is printed and in private circulation, although not yet laid on the table.