THE GLOBE. THURSDAY, JANUARY 8, 1880.

Globe, Volume XXII, Issue 1834, 8 January 1880, Page 2

THE GLOBE. THURSDAY, JANUARY 8, 1880.

If the telegram received yesterday is to be relied on, news with regard to the movements of the Russians in Central Asia has been received which will justify the opinion of those who took a pessimist view of the situation. The intelligence from Taskend, and the despatch by the Khan of Merv, of an embassy to Calcutta, are items that may well astonish and startle even those whose faith was firm with regard to the fixed intention of the Russians to carry out the policy of Peter the Great in the direction of Central Asia. The Khan of Merv is evidently fully awake to the danger of his position, and is hastening to throw himself into the arms of those allies whose business and interest it is to see that he is not swallowed up by the onward progress of the Muscovite arms. And, indeed, he has full cause for anxiety, for when a powerful neighbor has been pursuing a settled policy for upwards of a century

and a half, it is apparent that when he sees, as he imagines, the prieo within his grasp, he is little likely to he turned aside hy any feeling as to the right or wrong of the means hy which the end is to he attained. tTp to the end of his life Peter the Great obstinately pursued the plan of establishing a great waterway leading to the middle of the Asiatic continent. In other words he intended to conduct the waters of the Amu Daria or Oxus hack into its old hed, in which case the river would flow, not into the Sea of Aral, as at present, hut into the Caspian Sea. The difference which this change would make in the entire relations between Russia and Gcmtral Asia, it is impossible to overestimate. And the engineering difficulties are -not so great as might be imagined. The dry bed by which the river used to flow into the Caspian has been traced up as far as the oasis of Khiva, and exact measurements have proved that tho incline to the Caspian is greater and deeper than to the sea of Aral. A recent work by a Russian author, who has made the subject a speciality, and has not only personally gone over the ground with great care, but has searchod the Turcoman traditions with regard to the ancient course of the river, shows that the" Amu had at different geological and historical periods flowed from natural causes, sometimes into the Caspian, sometimes into tho Aral, but that its diversion from the Caspian last time was due purely to artificial obstacles purposely raised by the hand of man." But as a complement to the turning of the bed of the river there must be the capture of Merv, for otherwise no commerce en the river would be possible, and it is a mere question in the policy of Russia whether the capture precedes the turning of the river, or vice versa. When we come to consider the completeness of the scheme which was first mapped out by Peter the Great, when we reflect on the great pains that have lately been taken to establish settlements of Russians in the country beyond Khiva, when we learn that a Russian firm lately received the concession of a right to develop fisheries and establish ferries between Khiva and Bokhara and was also given the privilege of establishing colonies of Russian peasants along the valley of the Amu, we may feel inclined to look upon the present crisis less in tho light of a movement on India than as a long planned pushing eastward of the boundaries of the Russian Empire, and as the outcome of a settled determination to colonize and subdue the vast districts which have hitherto been overrun either by nomad hordes, or ruled by tribes whose disunion has invited subjugation. That this view of the situation would be any the more consoling to English statesmen is not likely. A eollision some day or other between England and Russia in Central Asia is probably inevitable, and whether it is occasioned by the gradual development of Russian power on the borders of Afganistan, or whether 'by a direct march of Russian troops on English territory, matters little. It is possible that after a collision the atmosphere may clear, and the two great nations with fixed and contiguous boundaries may settle down quietly as good neighbours. But to bring about this result without the shedding of blood would be a work to which the " fixing up " of the Treaty of Berlin would be the merest child's play. The immediate history of the Russian movement towards Merv commenced after the fall and virtual annexation of Khiva in June, 1873. The Russian Government strenuously asserted that it all meant nothing. The Chancellor wrote in 1875 "that His Imperial Majesty has no intention of extending the frontiers of Russia, such as they exist at present in Central Asia, either on the side of Bokhara or on the side of Krasnovodsk and of the Attrek." Nevertheless in the following year a small Russian force, although a mere reconnaissance party, penetrated half way to Merv. In 1877, an expedition under General Lomakin set out, but came to consummate grief, and was forced to retreat to the Caspian; the result, however, was that the Tekke Turkmanns of Merv placed themselves under the protection of the Shah of Persia, and that portion of their number who lived in the direction of the new Russian territory moved further away from their undesirable neighbors. The allegiance offered to the Shah was not, however, of any practical value, seeing that these same Turkmanns had at various time offered their allegiance to Khiva, Bokhara, and Afghanistan, as their humor or their interests moved them. " Recent travellers," says a late writer, " have unanimously asserted that it is to Great Britain that they look as their real mainstay against Russian encroachment," and certainly the recent action of their Khan bears out this view. Since 1877 two more Russian expeditions in the direction of Merv have failed, quite as much or more from the difficulties presented by the ardity and unhealthiness of the country as from the hostility of the Turkmann tribes. But persevering tactics, when thoroughly pursued by a powerful nation, must bear fruit in the long run. The Khan o£ Merv is evidently beginning to look upon his position as desperate. He is turniug his eyes to his natural protectors. It will lie with the English Government to decide whether it will allow him to be devoured piecemeal, or will aid in protecting his territory. Our present occupation of Afghanstan, without any apparent hope of placing it under an independent sovereign, has brought us dangerously near the scene of Russian manoeuvres. The present is a most anxious time for the British Cabinet and the English nation at large. A war with Russia in Asia has long been looked forward to, but it has always been relegated to the distant future. Events, however, march rapidly in these times, and a few days or weeks may possibly decide the momentous questions which have been hanging like a dark cloud for more than a century over the schemes of our Indian statesmen.