LONDON LETTER.

Globe, Volume XXI, Issue 1821, 22 December 1879, Page 3

LONDON LETTER.

[VEOM the peebb cobbebpondent.] LONDON, November 6. Ofring to the disarrangement of the mail service, only six days have elapsed since 1 despatched my last letter, so that the short interval prevents me from adding very much to my narration of political events in this country. It is, however, becoming clear, I think, that we shall have dissolution some time this winter, or, at all events, that that is the undecided topic which is being discussed at the meetings of the Cabinet, which are being held almost daily this week. There are ominous signs of the times, not the least of which is that the newspapers are beginning to calculate bow long, or rather how short, a period would suffice to accomplish the whole j business of a dissolution, a general election and the meeting of a now Parliament. It seems that this important work can be got through in about five weeks, and as the ordinary recess of the House of Commons is but yet only half way through it will be seen that there need be no immediate hurry to issue the proclamation for dissolution, even if Ministers should resolve to appeal to the country. One event which many people regard as in a large measure forecasting the probable result of the next general election happened last Saturday, viz, the election of the new members of the town councils in all the boroughs of England and Wales, the metropoli) alone excepted. In a large number of places, and particularly in the smaller boroughs which still retain the privilege of sending members to Parliament the annual event is always made the occasion for a fierce political struggle, and in but few towns have the rival parties made the sensible agreement to return unopposed an equal number of the best men on each side. I do not myself subscribe to the doctrine that these municipal elections, fought as many of them are, on almost precisely the same lines as the less frequent Parliamentary contests, afford any safe clue to the probable result of the latter, because experience has shown me to the contrary, and it must bo evident that, however strong politics may rage, there is always in the election of these town councillors a personal element which is altogether wanting in the Parliamentary election, except in the case of some Scotch borough whose suffrages are solicited by a bailee or a provost. But if what took place last Saturday is any indication of what may happen in the event of a dissolution then the Conservative members who now sit for boroughs ought to be prepared for an almost wholesale defeat. It is undeniable that both in large towns and in small ones the Liberals have succeeded in placing their men in a large majority of cases, and the mere knowledge of this fact will give them a keener zest to enter upon the greater struggle whenever the time for that event shall arrive, and if there is one thing more than another which induces people who read “ between the lines " to believe that dissolution is imminent, it is the sudden action which the Ministry have taken with regard to the affairs of Asia Minor, Sir Henry Layard having made a semi-official declaration to the Porte that England insisted on the promised reforms being carried out, and would no longer tolerate the oppressed condition of the Christians in Asiatic-Turkey. Totally unexpected as such an ultimatum was, it has produced general consternation in Constantinople, and not alone in the official circles at the Porte, but in the minds of the general public in that capital a feeling of the greatest alarm prevails. And well it may do ; for while there is no doubt that a good deal of the sensation which has been aroused during the past four days, both at Home and throughout the Continent, is due to very skilful wire-pulling ; it seems to have been contemplated by ministers and diplomatists that such a crisis must be provoked at some time or another, and perhaps it may have been made as the first note as an appeal to the country, otherwise it is not easy to explain why the blow has been struck at this particular moment. Every, body was aware that towards the end of the summer Sir ‘Henry Layard made a journey through the Turkish parts of Asia Minor, but it was regarded more as a holiday tour than one likely to result in a serious political issue. Wo scarcely know what precise state of affairs he round to prevail there, but it may be safely assumed that no great change had been made in the condition of the people, although peace had been restored to that district for upwards of a year. Indeed, any definite information of the reasons which have provoked this ultimatum to the Porte are altogether wanting to the outside world. But that the English Ministry has its mind upon some very decided course of action is evident from their order that the British Squadron in the Mediterranean shall move into Turkish waters, and it is this week sailing away to the Bay of Vourla, not far removed from Smyrna, though what it is to do there is not very clear. It must, however, be assumed that this naval demonstration is intended as a token of the resolve of England to have something done, and not to endure any longer the vacillation of the Turks and their constant changes of Ministry, each successive change being only one step nearer a Russian alliance. I spoke above of “ wire-pulling,” and I am sure that a little of it has been exerted in this

: case. The most alarming telegram of the series which first acquainted the public both at home and in most of the European capitals with what was happening, purported to have been sent from Vienna by the Havas agency, and circulated in this country by Router, but it is to-day asserted by one of the best informed correspondents at Vienna that no such telegram was dispatched from that city, and inquiries are being made on the subject. It is quite possible that this telegram has been privately communicated to the Havas agency by some one who wished it published as what the French call a ballon d’essai, but the other telegrams which were printed simultaneously deprived it of that character. This, however, is to some extent speculation, and may bo quito beside the question, for we come at last to the fact with which wo started, that the English Government has formed the sudden and quite unexpected determination to interfere actively in the affairs of bankrupt but still proud Turkey. And why should it do so at this particular time ? I agree with the opinion of many people that the answer is to bo fonnd in the determination of the Government to dissolve. It must not bo forgotten that the next election will be foughtmainly on the question of foreign policy, and Ministers must have something actively going on to which they can point us a justification of their appeal to the constituencies to give them another long period of office and power. All the Liberals who have spoken during the present Parliamentary recess have made a denunciation of the foreign policy of Lord Beaconsfield’s Cabinet the leading theme of their harangues. Of course, wo have plenty of other matters in hand besides that of Turkey, but a general dullness seems to have overspread them. General Roberts is safely established at Cubul, where ho will remain for the winter, and his subordinate officers are collecting the unpaid taxes which were duo to Yakoob, who seems to have altogether forsaken his people and to cling to the English camp with a singular fondness. Affairs in Zululand are quiet, and although in the neighbouring province of the Transvaal there may be some difficulties with the Boers, yet Sir Garnet Wolseley evidently thinks they will be only trifling. We were only a few weeks ago in dread of another little war with Burmah, but after the ignominious flight of the British Minister from Mandalay, the young king, Theebsu, seems rather desirous of a closer alliance than ever wi h this country. Wo seem to have prospered very fairly in all our foreign adventures, yet for an electioneering campaign something active is desirable, and nothing could be easier than to reopen in some small way the everlasting Eastern question. At all events, Turkey has been profoundly agitated. I scarcely think, too, that all the elaborate spe>qhes of the past few weeks will bo thrown away/for if a dissolution were postponed till another imtumn all the hours of talk that we have endured in October would be wholly wasted. We have this week heard what is in all probability the last of the great Opposition speeches against the Government—that of Mr Robert Lowe, who of late years has not been so frequently heard in the House of Commons as he should be, while out of that assembly he has very rarely spoken, since the University of London which he represents suffices itself with listening to one long speech from him on the occasion of his re-election. Now all the other leading men of Mr Gladstone’s last administration, their leader alone excepted, had been heard at great length, and although they hammered away at the same arguments with that remarkable strength and pertinacity which can only be derived from six years of opposition, they seemed to have failed to impress the public with anything beyond the fact that they were dissatisfied at having been so long out of office. Now Mr Lowe has gone to Grantham to help them. I suppose he was invited, for otherwise ho would seem out of place, as he went there nominally to support the two Liberal candidates for that borough. Anyhow it seems that bis presence was not acceptable to the whole of the assembly met to assert Liberal principles, and ho had spoken only a minute or two when some disturbance took place, which speedily grew so great that the chairman had to threaten the audience that Mr Lowe would retire from the platform if he could not get aquiethearing. I am glad that order was restored, for had Mr Lowe refrained from speaking on this occasion the whole country would have lost an intellectual treat. Mr Lowe showed himself at his best, bold, clever, and incisive. He made a bitter personal attack on Lord Beaconefield, and spoke of the policy and conduct of the Tory party in terms of invective not heard from him since the days when he inveighed against Parliamentary reform and against |the admission of working men to the franchise. But he has damaged the prospects of his party rather than advanced them by this latest addition to their party warfare. He has openly avowed, what other speakers on his side have timidly tried to half conceal, that in the event of a Liberal Government coming into office they would ignore all that has been accomplished during the momentous years they have been in Opposition, and would endeavour calmly to resume their work where they left it in 1874. This ostrich-like policy will not meet with the approval of any but the most infatuated of Radicals, for the world in 1880 will not be the same it was six years ago.