LONDON LETTER.

Globe, Volume XXI, Issue 1818, 18 December 1879, Page 3

LONDON LETTER.

[FHOM the “press” oobeesfondent.'J LONDON, October 31. The unusual interval of three weeks and a day has elapsed since I despatched my last letter. The present one should have been written a week ago, and would have been only that one day before that appointed for the making up of the mail I received a notice from the Post-office that the departure of that portion which goes via Brindisi was postponed for a week, in consequence of the serious accident which had happened to the P. and O. Company’s steamer Australia, which broke her main shaft just when she had reached the mouth of the English Channel. For two days she remained in a position of much danger, and it was only with the greatest skill in seamanship that she was prevented from drifting amongst the dangerous rocks and currents o the Channel Islands, in which case nothing could have saved her from becoming a wreck. However, she was saved and brought to Plymouth, and her passengers and the heavy portion of the mails having been transferred to another vessel, the worst that has happened has been the delay of a week in the outgoing mail, of which the telegraph will most probably hav e forewarned you. The most remarkable feature in English politics is the extraordinary demonstration that the leaders of each political party have made in the once Radical, but now Conservative, city of Manchester. Had I written a week ago, I could only have told you of the triumphant reception which was accorded to the Marquis of Salisbury, who was accompanied by Mr Cross, the Home Secretary, and the Minister of War, Colonel Stanley, brotherto Lord Derby, about whom I shall have a few words to say presently ; but now I have the means of comparing it with the Radical meetings of last Friday and Saturday, and let me say at once that if there is any truth in the old maxim that “ imitation is the sincorcst flattery,” then the Liberals have for once departed from their usual course of depreciation, and have greatly flattered the Conservatives, for their meetings were the closest possible imitation of the Conservative gatherings, except in the important matter of numbers, in which the supporters of the present Government greatly preponderated. Each began with a monster meeting in the Free Trade Hall—a building erected at great coat to be a monument of the repeal of the corn laws, but which, as it belongs to a company, is now let to any political party that can find money enough to hire it, a good dividend being in the minds of even the remnant of the Corn Law League, a perfectly nonpolitical matter. Well, Lord Salisbury made a long and able speech, of course chiefly in defence of the foreign policy which the Government had pursued during the past six years. One part of it was deyoted to a con-

sideration of the prospects of Turkey, and in this respect Lord Salisbury took, I think, an almost too hopeful viaw of affairs, knowing as he did, as communications from abroad have since made it evident, that another change of the Turkish Ministry was imminent, which would imply a considerable veering of the Porte towards Russia. He asked his audience to compare the situation at the date of the treaty of Sau Stefano with that at the present time, and insisted that HerMajeaty’s Government had provided an adequate guard for the interests and the position which it was their duty to protect. It cannot, however, bo fairly said that Turkey has ehowu any disposition to change, for the old leaven is still working through the whole lump of Turkey, while Russia, though wholly baffled in Europe, and partially defeated in Asia, both Western and Central, still threatens considerable trouble around Afghanistan, where she contrives to keep affairs in a continual ferment. And as regards this portion of his subject. Lord Salisbury spoke to much better effect, for he plainly showed that Major Cavagnari’s mis sion was sent to Oabul at the express wish of Yakoob Khan, who said he could there fully protect himself. “ How vain is man who boasts in might.” Yakoob could not only not protect our envoy, but, on the outbreak of disturbances, had to fly from his capital, and is at this date another added to the list of “monarchs retired from business.” Of course Lord Salisbury could not let the coming election pass unnoticed, though no one knows when it may come to pass, and in his most telling style he put the whole case before the constituencies in a few sentences, pointing out that the Liberals bad so framed the. issue to be determined that if a Liberal Ministry returned to power, every State in Europe would understand that the policy of the present Government was to be undone and reversed, and that England, again accepting that abdication of power to which she submitted in 1871 and 1873, would retire from the position that she now occupied. The Foreign Secretary made a fervent appeal to the electors to maintain a firm front at home, in order that, with the co-operation of worthy allies, England might be able to maintain peace and right abroad. Now, how did Lord Hartington meet all these declarations ? On the following Friday night he occupied the same platform, and as if to show that the Liberal party was not that unbound bundle of slicks which it seems to be in the House of Commons he was supported by several members of the tail of his supporters, though he could not secure the attendance of any man of even moderate prominence, Well, Lord Harrington's voice, never of the strongest, was on this occasion very weak, and he is not accustomed to speaking in so largo an area ns that of the Free Trade Hall, whore, as I know from personal experience, it requires a first-rate speaker to make himself heard. However, the Liberal loader had very little to say that was worth hearing. His speech was mainly a reply to the arguments of the other side, and was almost wholly made up of mild, not to say dilute criticism. Beyond this Liberal speakers seem at present unable to go, being probably afraid of making any pronounced statement for fear of what Mr Gladstone may say when he goes down to Midlothian a month hence. But if Lord Hartington had no definite pronouncement to make on the subject of what the Liberals would do if they obtained a majority at the next elections, ho had learned sufficient from the present autumn campaign to be convinced that it would not answer to advocate a policy of non-intervention any longer, and being bound therefore to make some admission, he made the very smallest he possibly could, in pointing to the strength of our navy as being something for which our alliance would always be courted—as if our ironclads could do anything for us in India or in Central Europe ! It had evidently been felt that this Liberal meeting in Manchester would be a predetermined failure, for again imitating the Conservatives, it had been arranged to hold another meeting at the Pomona gardens on the following day. And here the presence of Mr Bright was secured and very fortunately for l Lord Hartington, who having with difficulty j spoken for an hour and a half on the preceding night was scarcely able to talk on the following afternoon. But Mr Bright, from whom we have not had a long speech for several months, took his place and treated his audience to about the dreariest discourse he has ever uttered. We had the old story of the corn laws and free trade all over again, without the faintest reference being made to that most important of subjects—the newly formed alliance between Germany _ and Austria, with which it is pretty plainly hinted the English Government sympathises, and which it is generally believed will have a most important bearing on the history of Europe for the last quarter of this century, if not for all future time. Let the Liberals say what they please, even if the Berlin Treaty had been the wholesale failure they are pleased to regard it, its practical outcome has been this —that the German Emperor has, after a great struggle, broken away from the traditions of his whole life, has practically pronounced against the constant war of conquest that his nephew, the Czar of Russia pursues, and has formed an alliance with the Emperor of Austria to prevent any further inroad of the Russians into Central Europe. The Chinese of old built a monster wall to protect their territory from incursion ; but modern diplomacy spends a week in consultation, and the result is a sheet of paper with the signatures of two chancellors strong enough to defy the attack of any other State. But amidst all this strife of parties, there is one man who stands aloof from both, upon whose future all people, even those who are not ardent politicians, are speculating—l mean the Earl of Derby, whose secession from Lord Beaoonsfield’s Cabinet took place under circumstances so recent as not to require recapitulating. His present attitude has been brought about by the conjunction of a number of little events, each insignificant in itself, but amounting to a good deal when added together, and yet affording nothing tangible. Rumours have for some time prevailed that Lord Derby was going over to the Liberal party, but I have not yet heard whether his Lordship will join the head or the tail of it, and I expect I shall have to wait some time longer before obtaining any definite information on the subject. It is, I think, certain that he will never be invited to join another Ministry under Lord Beaconsfleld or Lord Salisbury, but I doubt whether ho would accept office in the event of the Liberals returning to power in any Govern.ment that had any appreciable Radical element. It is true he has of late been visited at Knowsley by Lord Hartington, Sir Wm, Harcourt, and this very week by the Duke of Argyle, and the Liberals would have the public believe that negotiations have been going on to obtain the active support of the noble Earl for the Liberal party at the coming election. Will that party get it ? That is a riddle which time only will solve, and perhaps the next general election will not be the time at which the solution may be made, for I doubt greatly whether Lord Derby, though he might be glad to see the downfall of the present Ministry, would yet take a decisive part against his lifelong friends, and even turn his brother, Colonel Stanley, the Minister for War, out of his seat in Parliament for Lancashire, Though no one can positively tell whether or not we shall have a dissolution this winter, there is, I think, one matter from which we might safely predict that the House of Commons will meet as usual in February next, though then it must absolutely be for the last session. This matter is the new campaign in Afghanistan, which is far from being ended, and which seems to threaten us with new trouble every day. I told you three weeks ago that the Indian Government would never venture to restore Yakoob Khan to the Throne of Oabul. Well, he has saved them the trouble, for before General Roberts arrived at the city the Ameer had resigned what mere show of power remained in his hands. He is, however, still a guest in our camp, where he has a numerous retinue, and I suppose Sir F. Roberts only keeps him there to save his life from the ferocity of the Cabnlese, who who would doubtless massacre the whole court could they get at them. The winter in Afghanistan has already begun, and the early snowfall and frosts seem to presage a very severe winter, which will add to the difficulties of our occupation of Oabul, and altogether prevent any important movement in any other part of the country. While this matter is pending, and with South African affairs still unsettled, I incline to think there will|be no dissolution. There are, however, others in plenty who entertain a different opinion, and who insist upon it that the Prime Minister, fond of surprises and startling effects, will dissolve before Mr Gladstone can get down to Midlothian, whore he is to mako his appearance in three weeks’ time. But such a coup as this could not shut Mr Gladstone’s mouth, while it would effectually prevent any reply on behalf of the GoTernment,^