The Globe. THURSDAY, MAY 22, 1879.

Globe, Volume XX, Issue 1639, 22 May 1879, Page 2

The Globe. THURSDAY, MAY 22, 1879.

The news received by cablegram yesterday that a .Russian force advancing on Merv had been defeated by the Turkomans, is, unless the affair is exaggerated, of the greatest importance. It shows that the Russians have not abandoned their schemes of aggrandisement in Central Asia. Forced by European pressure to forego many of the advantages which they had hoped to obtain from their war with Turkey, they have, apparently, merely turned their energies in another direction. The dream of a Russian empire with Constantinople as capital, has for a time vanished, but there still remains the more practicable scheme of extending Russian power over the whole of Central Asia, a scheme which has for its back-ground the determination to wrest India from British rule. It was, a short time back, trusted that Russia's financial embarrassments would keep her quiet. Nations cannot, in these times, fight without money, and Russia is at the present moment singularly devoid of this species of the sinews of war. Iu point of fact, the folly of keeping up a warlike policy is well recognised by most sensible Russians. The mercantile and agricultural classes prefer peace, but other and more influential strata of society see their gain in still keeping the warlike instincts of the nation on fire. Truly patriotic Russians see well that to economise is the only way to make both ends meet. The country is poor, the population is thin, and production and commero are undeveloped. If Russia is to remain solvent, there is no denying the fact that she will have to devote 180 million roubles (£27,000,000) a year—the third of her entire revenue —to the payment of interest on her national debt. This debt has increased during the last two years by one and three-fourths. Add to this source of embarrassment that commerce and agriculture have been much disturbed by the plague and Nihilism, and we may well wonder that Muscovite statesmen do not, for a period at least, abandon ideas of national aggrandisement and devote themselves to husbanding domostic resources. But, if Russians are indeed advancing on Merv in any force, it is evident that the restlessness and ambition of the ruling classes have overpowered the prudence of the middle classes, and that the chance of a fresh embroglio with England is thought a less evil than the renunciation of a cherished idea. How the British Government will treat the Russian advance will be a matter of great interest. Before the English troops entered Afghanistan in soarch of a "scientific frontier," the Cabinet distinctly stated that it would not brook for an instant the occupation by the Russians of either Merv or Balkh. It would have been a threat against the neutrality of the Ameer, and indirectly a menace to the British power in India. But the " scientific frontier" is now obtained, the present Ameer has been compelled to sue for peace, English prestige has been amply vindicated, and Afghanistan can now be hardly called absolutely neutral, but rather a neutral dependency on the English power. Russia may in consequence demand that she, too, has a right to push forward, for that the neutrality formerly threatened no longer exists. The English and Russian powers are now indeed becoming very near neighbors in Central Asia. Merv is only about 180 miles from Herat, a town in which probably we shall in future maintain a corps of observation. It has of course been argued by some that there will be less danger of a misunderstanding when two civilised powers stand the one on one side, the other on the other side of a frontier, bocause the jfactor of disturbances in badly governed Asiatic neighbors will then be eliminated, and bocauso neither state can then seize upon the weakness or folly of an Asiatic despot as an excuse for enlarging its borders. There may indeed be something in this argument, but should Russia and England range side by sido on the Moorghab, international jealousies will have to be taken into consideration. Moroovor, Russia has boon for so many years struggling south-eastward, while England has been moving north-westward, that the very impetus of advance may hasten a collision, howsoever otherwise undesirable, National forces, resembling in this rospoct natural forces, do not enjoy boing checked in any movement which has boon going on for a length of time. Tho habit of advance has become ingrained, and much chafing is the result when a finality is reached.

But with regard to the question of Russian advances in Ooniral Asia, there is another circumstaneo that it will bo necessary to take into consideration —a circumstance that may much tend to lighten the load of English diplomats and to hamper the Russians in their movements. The Chinese Government has long looked with an evil eye on the course of Muscovite ambition. Tho " Brother of the

Sun and relative of most of the major constellations " has ins own little plans with regard to the future of many of the provinces lying to the westward of his empire. Ho thinks that ho may as well pour a few odd millions into Independent Tartary as ship them off to countries where their prosenco is not appreciated. Ho has recontly re-annexed Cashgar, after playfully exterminating the inhabitants, and ho holds that he, and he alone, has a vested right to be tho ruling power in Central Asia. That the idea is shared by his subjects is proved by the fact that a struggle between Russia and China would bo very popular with the Chinese. Tho people of Yarkand alone have volunteered to forward, free of expense to the Government a contingent of 10,000 men. It is true that tho discipline of the Chinese army is not high, that their bravery is rather more than doubtful, and that their military staff is not trained in all tho minutia' of modern warfare It is true that staff examinations are still carried on in much the same way as they wore hundreds of years ago, and that a good shot with a bow and arrow is safe for promotion. But, theso facts notwithstanding, the very numbers that the Emperor of China can force into tho field render his power formidable, particularly to an army far from its rosourcos, and holding by force of arms a hostile country. Theso considerations must bo examined when we calculate on tho pressure that China is likely to bring to bear on the Russians when the latter have pushed forward into its immediate vicinity. Tho whole Central Asia question is likely indeed very shortly to become an exceedingly interesting one. Russia, China, and England are advancing from different directions almost to the same central point. When tho small independent nations are wiped out, will these three powers agree to maintain tho status quo then arrived at ? That is the question.