THE WAR AND THE WHEAT MARKET.

Globe, Volume VIII, Issue 956, 18 July 1877, Page 3

THE WAR AND THE WHEAT MARKET.

In its greed for conquest, writes the “ Mall Gazette,” the Russian Government seems to have overlooked the risk it is running of losing to its subjects their valuable corn trade. The Americans, sharpened by competition, are more keen-sighted. We learn from a telegram in the “Times,” from its Philadelphia correspondent, that speculations are being carried on to an extent never before known, “ Dealings are enormous, especially at Chicago, where thousands crowd the Exchange, most of them exhibiting extreme excitement.” The immediate hope, of course, is that the blockade of Odessa and other Russian ports in the Black Sea will cause an extraordinary rise in wheat, and that, in consequence, large profits are to be realised by those who speculate early. But if the rise takes place, it will give a fresh and extraordinary stimulus to the wheat cultivation in every country not affected directly by the war which supplies the English market. Thus Russia may find, on the return of peace, that the trade is gone from her. It is to be borne in mind that Russia has not now the advantage over competitors she possessed at the time of the Crimean war. Our dependence upon the foreign supply was then very much less than it is now, and consequently our demand did not make it worth the while of all agricultural countries to strive for our custom. Besides, Russia was very much nearer to us, was an old country, and had long had a considerable trade in her hands. But since then her advance in industry and wealth, though considerable absolutely, has been infinitesimal compared with that of several new communities. In the United States, for example, the Upper Yallcy of the Mississippi—the wheatgrowing region par excellence —has been almost altogether settled in the interval. Again, at the time of the Crimean war California produced only gold; it is now one of the greatest exporters of wheat in the world. Nor is it only the United States that lias grown in this way. The cereal production of Canada has also made extraordinary strides. The South American Republics have also advanced rapidly ; Chili, for instance, sends us now a large supply ; while the opening of the Suez Canal has recenlty enabled India to enter the trade. Russia has in consequence to sustain a competition beyond all comparison greater than existed twenty years ago. In fact, we draw our supplies at present literally from all parts of the earth. And Russia has not been able to make head against her rivals. In spite of the vast construction of railways, of the encouragement given by the establishment of local banks, of the emancipation of the serfs, and of all the other measures adopted by the Government for the development of the material resources of the empire, its ability to sustain the competition to which it has been exposed has not increased as we should have expected. A very few years ago we drew from Russia a far larger supply than from any other country. Suddenly in 1874 the exports of the United States made a great bound forward, and every year since they have more and more exceeded the Russian, until in the agricultural year ending with last harvest the United States and Canada sent us nearly half our whole foreign imports, and Russia sent us only one-seventh. In fact, while the Russian imports have fallen one-third American have trebled since 1872. Another fact which proves very clearly how much oven in peace time Russia was falling behind in the competition is that, while in 1876 wo imported over 9,000,000 cwt. of wheat more than in 1875, the increase was drawn almost exclusively from sources other than Russian. But ii Russia in the midst of peace was unable to hold her own in a market in which she had long been by far the principal dealer, what chance is there that she willsucceed in getting back her custom when she has once been excluded from the market by war ? Even with Turkey as her sole antagonist, it is not likely that the contest will be very speedily brought to an end, and while it continues the Black Bca will be closed against her. If other Bowers are dragged into the quarrel, it may last for years, and in that case the corn-growers of Southern Russia would be ruined.