COMMERCIAL.

Globe, Volume I, Issue 65, 15 August 1874, Page 2

COMMERCIAL.

Globe Oiiice, Saturday. There is little or no alteration to report in the grain market. Flour is meeting a fair demand at £lllos in 2001 b sacks, at £l2 in 1001 b ba<*s. Wheat is seldom enquired for, but very little is offering. The downward tendency of the English market checks any inclination to speculate. Prices obtained during the week for fanners' parcels range from 4s 4d to 4s Id, according to quality. Barley is neglected, very few enquiries being made excepting for seed purposes. An improved enquiry is noticeable for oats for local use but export business has almost ceased, as the Californlan shipments have completely glutted the Auckland market. Bran is steady at £5 10s at the mills. Butter for the moment is out of the market, but the advancing spring will soon increase supplies. Several large lots ot cheese have changed hands during the week at 6}d to 6Jd. Potatoes are scarce and very few offering. Hams and bacon in fair demand at 3|d have, and Od in cloth. A fair average business lias been done in the import markets during the past week. We have no arrivals irom England to report, but stocks ■ are heavy in some lines. Sales have been made In Hennessy'S pale brandy at 10s od; other good brands sell freely at 8s 6d ; ITennessy's case is held for 325. Swaine Boord's old torn (in bulk), commands 5s to 58 3d. J.DKZ geneva, a moderate business has been done in three - quarter gallons at 15s. Several parcels of West India rum have been placed at Is .3d to ss, according to strength. Whisky commands a fair sale at full rates. Sugars have been rather quid ;we note a cargo of Mauritius is hourly expected, it will eonie to a good market, as best lines are very low in stock, the shipment of Yarravilla Refinery sugars ex Albion is offered privately; we hear £37 10s is the price asked lor best whites. Tea remains inactive. A few parcels of bottled ales and stout have been placed at Vis to 12* Hd; the market is well stocked in these lines. Price's Belmont upcrnl candles sell freely at lid. Oilmen's stores meet With usual good sale. Sales have been made in sardines at 6d advance on last quotations. In kerosene there arc only trade sales to report, 2s 3d to 2s M, duty paid, is the price obtained for Devoe's. Cement sells freely at 23s to 23s (id. Galvanised iron (best brands), commands little attention, £35 • 10s to £36 is the price now asked, Hops remain dull at our last quotations. We note the s.s. Atrato is fast filling up with wool, wheat, Hour, preserved meats, &c, and will in all probability get away on 18th inst. The ship Wennington is ready is ready for sea, and will get away in a day or two. These are the only vessels on the berth for London at present.

CALIFORNIA!* ESTIMATED SURPLUS. [From the "Daily Morning Call,"] "Ana all the world flocked to Egypt to buy bread." Such was said of the land of Egypt in the dawn of history; such might ho now said of the United Stateß, and in particular, of what promises to be the granary of it, the State of California; and it is not at all hazardous to predict that in a few years it will be by far the greatest wheat-growing State of the Union. The approaching harvest will be of a magnitude sufficient to attract the eyes of all the world hither, even though it should fall short of the amount anticipated by some. And as operations in gathering - the crophave already commenced in some of the southern counties.it is an opportune moment to give a short review of the prospective yield, as obtained from the most reliable sources. For such a review, or jrather to the data ! herein given, millions of persons in both hemispheres arc at this moment anxiously looking. The population of the British Islands requires a supply of one hundred and twenty million centals yearly, of which from forty to fifty millions of centals must be drawn from the surplus of other nations. This being to a certain extent a fixed quantity, it is manifest that any increase in the amount obtained from one source of supply, must cause a corresponding decrease in that obtained from another, and force them to seek new and untried markets. But tins alternative is not entirely agreeable to the parties concerned, for people like to follow old and beaten paths rather to go to the trouble of making new ones, however superior the latter may prove to be. California must therefore drive her competitors from the English market as she increases her annual wheat product, use it at home in manufactures,' or seek a market for it elsewhere. And during the coming harvest year the problem will present itself for solution before her. For the lowest estimate of the crop that can be made pbices it at such a figure as will leave nearly or mule double the quantity for export that was available during the unusually productive years of Last year, the area sown with wneat was, in round numbers, 1,700,000 acres, the actual figures being 1,606,623, The average yield was between 13 and 14 bushels per acre, and this in the face of long dry weather, which in many places only left half a crop, and in some hardly any crop at all. This year, while the area sown has been materially increased, the yield in some instances will be more than doubled. In all, about 300,000 acres have been added to the area sown with wheat last year, of which, about 40,000 are in San Joaquin, 34,000 in Stanisl us, and the remainder distributed in various locations throughout the State. The entire area under crop this year is 2,000,000 acres, or thereabouts. The average of theeropof 1872-73 would give the amount produced on this as 30,000,000 bushels, or 18,000,000 centals ; but an average of 2o bushels per acre, which, in favorable seasons, is not considered excessive would give give 40,000,000 bushels of 24,000,000 centals. The first estimate would leave, after deducting for local consumption, for all selliii"- purposes, and for seed, 13,000,000 centals; the second would leave 19,000,000. However, comparing the various estimates, and estimating upon the reports received from the principal wheat-growing counties, we have no hesitation in placing the aggregate cop at 3o,i'oC,ono bushels, or 21,000,000 centals. The great wheat-growing countries of the State are, with the exception of Colusa and Sutter, all in its southern half. In fact, those in this section have by far the greater average, and five of them produce nearly two-thirds of all the wheat raised In California. Taking them one by on«. we first find San Joaquin, with 230,000 acres under crop, one fourth more than last year. Good judges have estimated the yield here at from thirty to thirty-live bushels per acre; but putting it down to twentvJlve, we nave 5,750,000 bushels uu the yield of the

one county. Then comes Stanislaus, the banner county, 4H0.000 acres of wheat, which will produce eight million bushels. Colusa will, it is variously estimated, produce from one half to double the yield of last year, so that we may expect a yield of at least four mil lion bushels. These three counties of themselves will raise nearly half the entire wheat crop of the State. Santa Clara had never such a prospect before ; with an acreage of one hundred and eighty thousand acres, she will reap a harvest of 3,000,000 bushels. Two and a half million bushels will be produced by Merced, and three millions by Monterey. Sutter will produce a million and a half bushels. Here we have a total of 28,350,000 bushels from seven counties, Alameda, Butte, Napa, Sonoma, Yola, and Tenoma, which take a secondary rank, have together some 300,000 acres under wheat this year. Putting the yield in these counties clown as low as 15 bushels per acre, this would give us four and a half millions of bushels, which would make, with the. yield of the principal counties before named, 32,850,000 bushels, leaving only 2,150,000 bushels for the other counties, even with the largely increased acreage of this year. What that increase is may be appreciated when it it is known that San Metco added a fourth to its acreage, that Tulare lias doubled hers, that Santa Barbara added a third, and other counties in still greater proportion. It is, therefore, tolerably safe, upon the data obtained by us, to estimate the total crop at twenty-one million centals; and the consumption in the State being five millions, there will be left for exports sixteen million centals, or.nearly double that of the greatest harvest year ever hitherto known in California—that of 1872-73. This vast quantity, nearly double that exported by ltussia last year, and much larger than that exported by the remainder of the United States, will require an immense tonnage to carry it away. It will also tax to the utmost the carrying capacity, on land and water, of steamboats, barges, and railroads to convey it to tidewater at Oakland, Vallejo, and San Francisco. For the southern counties of Bos Angeles, San Bernardino, and San Diego, we presume that San Diego will become the snipping port. The carrying capacity of a railroad ear being two hundred centals, it would take one hundred and live thousand cars, or a little over five hundred and seventy-live oars a day, every day for six months, to convey it air to the shipping points. But of course every craft on the bay and on the Sacramento and San .Joaquin rivers will be pressed into service, and the greater portion will, as usual, reach San Francisco by water carriage, All this will make matters lively on the bay and its tributary waters, on the San Francisco city front, and Vallejo, Sacramento, and Stockton, for the nine months following the beginning of next July. The supplying' of the Wants of the thousands engaged in the interior carrying trade will revive business to an extent, hitherto scarcely known. At least four million dollars will be expended on the bay and river carrying trade, and probably much more, as the unprecedented increase in the quantity to be transported will doubtless cause a greater or less increase of rates. The warehouses of the State, too, will be crammed to repletion, notwithstanding the increase in the number last year, including those erected by private individuals and by the eo-operalive associations of Grangers. The warehouse accommodation of the State needs, in fact, at the present time to he doubled, and this is one of the most important matters that both growers and buyers should attend to. Without suflicient warehouse accommodation it is impossible for the farmers in many localities to await a favourable turn in the Sau Francisco market, or for the larger buyers to hold on for a rise in the market at Liverl?ool. The next important matter that attracts the attention of all concerned is the amount of tonnage needed, and how and at what rates it can be obtained. And notwithstanding all that has been talked and written about the matter, but little has been done, or, from the nature of the case, can be done by the representatives of the farmers, to obtain it cheaply. Owing to want of irrigation, and the uncertainty of the spring rain-fall needed to counteract the ell'ect of the northers, it is not till within a few weeks of the time when the grain should ripen, that the extent of the crop can ever be predicted with certainty. On the one hand, a dry spring, with a succession of northers, will nearly destroy the entire crop of the state; while on the other, too much rain will damage it almost as badly as on the low lands. A great crop may be expected ; it may fail within the last two months to be realised, and a bay full of foreign ships and tonnage at the lowest rales is the result; or, again, the most unfavorable outlook may, with timely rains, be followed by a large crop, and vessels being scarce, tonnage will run up to exorbitant prices. Nothing but a system of irrigation and ship-building on the I'acific coast will tend to equalise freights in this direction. This equalisation is necessary not only in the interests of the wheat grower, but of the whole state—for the freight money, in an immense majority of instances goes into the pocket-; of those who know little and care less about California, except as a laud from which they manage to draw a golden tribute. Ami tint State is just so much the poorer. With sixteen millions of centals of wheat for export, it is almost certain that tonnage will be high -not high, perhaps, when compared with the rates prevailing in 1872-73; but high when contrasted with what it ought to be. The fleet that will be necessary to cany away the immense surplusage of this year's wheat crop will itself be immense. Taking the data furnished by the experience of the last couple of years, our average cargo is about 25,00;i centnls. This would render necessary six hundred vessels, manned by nearly twenty thousand sailors. The necessary repairs to these would be sufficient to keep at South San Francisco a couple of hundred ship-joiners, etc, whose trade of itself ought to sustain a very considerable addition to the population of the city. As to the state in which the crop will be exported, we may predict a very considerable quantity, perhaps larger than any preceding year, to be .sent off as flour.'

It is next to impossible to predicate the course of prices, but it is evident thet they are not destined to fall much below their present standard. The wheat crop of England was rather small last year, with a diminished continental supply ; that is, it was so toward the beginning of last" harvest year. It will become scarce again in a couple of months, and prices stiffening up will for a considerable time remain firm. In tine, with a wheat crop fairly estimated at over twenty million centals, and worth, at present prices, about forty million dollars, the prospects for all classes that go to make up the population of the state are exceedingly bright.