The Gisborne Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. GISBORNE, DECEMBER 6, 1901.

Gisborne Times, Volume VI, Issue 281, 6 December 1901, Page 2

The Gisborne Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. GISBORNE, DECEMBER 6, 1901.

FUTURE OF RUSSIA. The future of Russia is a subject that has lately been much discussed iu the magazines. The writers generally agree that Russia is steadily forging ahead in what may be termed her bloodless conquests. She is continually adding to her extensive territory without having to light as Great Britain has done.. Russia usually stops short ol actual fighting, though, having provoked anger, she never releases her hold upon what has come within her grasp. A well-informed and unprejudiced writer states The future of Russia far more than that of any other country, depends upon her relations with oilier nations. Excepting the United States and France, there is no great power whose frontier does not run with her own. Thus, no political or status-threaten-ing question can arise in any nation of the world—always excepting the United States—which does not immediately and vitally affect her own interests. The dual alliance with France has so far had but a financial result —the investment of many hundreds of millions .of francs in Russian immovable securities—for it is almost wholly in repaying State advances to Russian railways that the French loans have been employed. The relations of Russia and Germany make a very different story. They are concerned with the future, and with a coming situation possibly more delicate and more pregnant than anything occurring since the fall of the first Napoleon—a situation, moreover, that may burst upon.us any day between night and morning. The real and fundamental causes which are moulding the relations of Russia and Germany to-day are not isolated incidents or personal encounters, but new springs ,oi national policy, new drifts of racial development, Thq fact, as Russia sees it, is that Germany has deliberately placed herself athwart Russian p'olicy in each of the three paths along which Russian statesmen desire that their country should enjoy an unimpeded progress. These three paths lie in the Far East, the near East, and toward the Persian Gulf. Here, then, we at last touch the dan-ger-zone of contemporary European 'politics, and the most important factor in the future of the Russian Empire. With Austria, no less than witli Germany, have Russia’s relations recently undergone a rapid aad a vital change. For a number of years past peace has been guaranteed in the Balkans—the powder magazine of Europe—by the common decision of St. Petersburg and Vienna that they would not allow it to be broken. It was tacitly underscore! that Austria would not interfere in Bulgaria, while Russia recog-

nised that Servia must he more or less under Austrian influence. But gradually, as Russia has resumed her old paramountcy in Bulgaria, which Stambolofi destroyed, this Austroftussian understanding has worn thin, and Rus-.de, has begun to trench upon Austria’s sphere in Servia. When she, with the help of France and Germany, had unceremoniously kicked Japan out of Port Arthur and off the mainland of China, Russia probably thought she had done with the little island-empire for a long time. But Japan thought otherwise, and proceeded to lay out a programme of naval and military expansion due to mature a short time before the TransSiberian railwav was to be completed. To-day she has a magnificent navy, including the most powerful battleship afloat, stronger thait any fleet Russia could safely send to the Far East, while her army is at least equal in numbers, apd superior in equipment and scientific training, 1.0 the land forces Russia could muster on the eastern side of her vast dominions.

There remains the last and greatest of Russia’s foreign relationships. England—what of this long-existent and traditional rivalry 0 There are only three parts of the world where serious obstacles are thought; to exist—China, Persia, and India. As regards China, Russia has virtually got what she wants—namelv, Manchuria and her free rail-route to-the sea, Persia presents a much more difficult problem, as her

UTriiun ciHtiain- 01 controls the over End route to India, and here very

delicate and determined diplomacy would be necessary. Most- people, however, believe that the real strain and danger between the Russian and British Empires lie in India. The truth is. that Russia regards her position on the Indian frontier as a lever to bring pressure to bear, whenever necessary. upon England. But the notion ti{ invading India to annex it and administer it, does not form part of any Russian plan. It would from from everv point of view, be far beyond Russia's means, considering the vu»t task she lias assumed and the vast aims she cherishes in other parts oi the world. And one word more—a little prophesy : before long she cm 11 give England and the world a striking piece of evidence that she is harboring no designs against that part 01 the British Empire.