The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES.” MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 25. 1939. THREE WEEKS OF WAR

Gisborne Herald, Volume LXVI, Issue 20051, 25 September 1939, Page 6

The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES.” MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 25. 1939. THREE WEEKS OF WAR

Three weeks have now elapsed since Britain and France declared themselves to be at war with the Government of the Reich, and it is not too

soon to make a preliminary review of the situation. At the outset, it is

well to recall Mr. Chamberlain’s statement last week that in a war the

aggressor has an immense initial advantage. The point is so obvious that is should require no emphasis, but it docs immediately raise the question of what Germany has gained from this

advantage. It is true that her troops have over-run Poland, destroyed many of its towns and cities, massacred thousands of its innocent peoples, and shared the spoils with her new-found ally, Russia, but it may be questioned whether these seeming gains are not more apparent than real. The methods with which she has conducted the war in Poland and her ill-begotten alliance with her archenemy, the Soviet Union, have shocked world opinion in a way that is calculated to more than offset whatever advantage there may have been in the defeat of a smaller Power, which, after all, was a foregone conclusion. The Nazis’ real war is not with Poland, but with Britain and France, and if this fact is borne in mind it will readily be realised that the campaign has only just begun and that the honours so far do not lie solely with the Reich. The second feature of the struggle that has commanded particular attention has been the campaign of unrestricted submarine warfare, which started with the callous sinking of the Athcnia, a defenceless liner carryinfi non-combatants away from the war zone. Ollier vessels have fallen victim to the U-boats which were lying in wait for them even before war was declared, but here again the apparent initial advantage to the aggressor has been shorn of much of its value because of the resentment engendered by the brutality of Nazi methods. It seems likely that the Nazis, themselves so inured to cruelty

and callousness, make a grave psychological error in under-estimating the effect of their barbarity on other

peoples. Nor has the submarine campaign had the direct results which its sponsors, in the light of experience, had reason to expect. The loss of thirty British vessels of varying size in the first fortnight and of another five or six in the third week cannot be dismissed as negligible, but the Germans have paid a heavy price for these early successes. It seems certain that at least one-third and probable that one-half of Germany’s submarine fleet has been sent to the bottom already, or, in other words, that for every t\vo‘British merchant ships slink one German submarine has been lost, in which case the honours, if they can be so called are more or less even.

The third aspect of the struggle, and the one that is likely to obtain increasing significance in the future, is the counter-action launched by the French and British forces on the Western Front. The real value and real object of this offensive may be somewhat difficult to judge, but here it is the Allies who possess the initial advantage of aggression. Of paramount importance is the fact that the struggle, for the first time since the Napoleonic wars, is being waged on German soil. The moral effect of this on the German .people, and of the allied fact that right at the outset of the campaign it has been necessary to evacuate important German centres, is difficult to calculate, but it is evident that it must have an enormous influence on a people who already are far from united in support of their leaders. Another result of these operations is that the rich industrial areas of the Saar valley, upon which Germany largely depends for the .maintainencc of the economic life, have been rendered unworkable. This loss could never have been compensated for by similar gains in Poland, but as it is sabotage and Russian intervention have deprived Germany of any benefits she might have expected to gain from this source. It seems not improbable that Germany's gains in Poland, both military and economic, have been more than offset by the retaliatory invasion of her territory in the west. Most important of all, however, are the activities on the economic front. Here, too, the immense initial advantage was with the Allies, and instead of that advantage being eliminated by the passage of time it must continue to increase. Germany, in the name of international law, is already protesting vociferously against the blockade to which she has been subjected. ■For a Government whose submarines sink defenceless non-combatant ships on sight, regardless of the fate of iheir passengers and crews, and whose air force bombs open towns and nachine-guns women and children to invoke international law is a most striking example of Satan rebuking sin. The protests, however, indicate the vulnerability of Germany to blockade, and already there is evidence that the blockade is meeting with much success. It is as true today as it was in Napoleon's time that “an army marches on it's stomach” and it is for this reason that the availability and continuity of supplies is of such vital importance in warfare. It is in this respect that Germany is at such a great disadvantage, not only because of the Allied blockade but also because her financial position would handicap her in securing supplies from neutral countries even if they could be transported. Germany’s only hope of a successful war lay in a lightning stroke, but any prospect of this seems already to have disappeared because the Allies have clearly planned a war of attrition which must ultimately wear down German resistance.