GERMAN CHANCES

Gisborne Herald, Volume LXVI, Issue 20037, 8 September 1939, Page 10

GERMAN CHANCES

LIGHTNING WAR ONLY HUNGARIAN ESTIMATE RAW MATERIALS PROBLEM OF SUPPLIES

Much has been heard of the booklet of about 100 pages by Dr. Ivan Lajos entitled “The War Chances of Germany in the Light of German Expert Writings." which has had such a surprising success in Hungary, particularly among the middle classes, wrote the' Budapest correspondent of The Times on July 22. The author is an assistant of Dr. Koloman Molnar, professor of constitutional law at the Elizabeth University in Pecs, and also secretary to the Inspectorate of Public Instruction. He acknowledges himself a Legitimist, and he has published several books about war guilt. In his preface he says:— “We must ‘clearly understand that each Hungarian bears the most formidable responsibility for everything that is going on in these fateful days. We may live in friendship with our powerful neighbour, but we should pursue only pure Hungarian aims. German politics have purposes in view which arc not consistent with Hungarian interests. We must learn to know the bases of German politics and recognise the aims which they are pursuing, slowly and tenaciously, by means of a masterful propaganda among millions of people.” From books by Karl von Loesch, Ewald Banse, Benno Graf, Friedrich Lange, and others, Dr. Lajos seeks to show that German expansion would involve Hungarian territories. He quotes such assertions as: “The German frontier lies at the Balaton Lake,” and "The small, miserable, Balkanic, spiteful Hungary, with her 8,000,000 inhabitants, has no right to exact citizen loyalty from the Germans.” “A Lightning War" ' With reference to Dr. Erwin liaudan's article, “Motorisicrungspotential der Sowjet-Union” in the “Kriegswissenschaf tliche J ahresberichle” of the Military Scientific Revue, I)r. Lajos sketches a very optimistic picture of the situation of Russia to prove that a lightning war in the East must be regarded as belonging to the realm of fancy. “We cannot leave out of account,” he adds, “the imposing Polish army, the spirit, armament and fighting force of which cannot be compared with what they were under ‘he old Tsarist army or with the Legionaries.” He depicts further the unfavourable situation of the German irmy as to trained reserves and ‘officer-completion.” From all this, he concludes, it is easily seen that it is the German staff itself which resists “lightning war” dreams. For instance, Staff Colonel Thomas sets forth in the “Kriegswirtchaftliche Jahresberichte” for 1936 < hat the German erroneous readiness for a short war had alreadv once ■ oused ruin to Germany, and that they ■lurst not get misled by the wish-1-eam of a short war in the days of ,i r forces and tanks.

After quoting German military arguments that the last war was lost not on account of being stabbed from ■behind but on account of the bad nutrition, he analyses the present food situation, and discovers that Germany is just as dependent cn, foreign countries as ever. Rival War-Potentials In numerous statistical statements the war-potential of England and France is compared with that of Germany, and the following conclusions ire drawn: — “We need not toe well-trained economists to recognise that behind the eeming decrease of the English and French production extraordinarily trong reserve forces are to toe detected. Berlin toils with and overstrains ier last forces, uses all attainable raw materials, and exploits fully the capacity of her industry. London and Paris, on the contrary, are only now etting out to work. It would not cause them any difficulty to raise their steel production this year by 25 per cent, which of itself means an increase by 50 per cent in their warmaterial production."

Another chapter ' argues that the production of synthetic pelrbl (benzine) would toy- no means cover Germany's needs, pointing out that in 1937 only 35.9 per cent could toe covered by internal production. Of 34 raw materials necessary for the conduct of a war only four are at the disposal of Germany in sufficient quantities and 23 are not produced in Germany at all. In a chapter cn German finances, the contrast between the financial strength of Imperial Germany and the overstrained situation of capital and taxation in the Third Reich is emphasised. The work ends with a description of the general 'disposition of the mind of the German masses, in which police precautions against riots and revolutionary risings are described in a particularly vivid way.