The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES.” GISBORNE, THURSDAY, JULY 13, 1939 BRITAIN AND JAPAN

Gisborne Herald, Volume LXVI, Issue 19988, 13 July 1939, Page 4

The Gisborne Herald. WITH WHICH IS INCORPORATED “THE TIMES.” GISBORNE, THURSDAY, JULY 13, 1939 BRITAIN AND JAPAN

What until recently was a military struggle between China and Japan, now appears to have developed into a diplomatic conflict between Japan and Great Britain. The explanation for this change is not hard to find, but the outcome of it is difficult to foresee. Japan, basing her expectations on prior experiences in Manchuria and North China, provoked an incident in Shanghai in the confident belief that if China did not immediately capitulate it would be only a matter of a month or two before she was subjugated. The second anniversary of the outbreak of hostilities has already been observed, and Japan, whatever gains she may have made ana however serious the losses she has inflicted on China, does not appea: to have made any real gain towards her ultimate objective. It is true that, the invader has gained control of most of the large cities and ports, but having captured them she is in the pus iron of not knowing what to do

with them. In the meantime, Japan has a million or more troops tied up in China and they are being constantly harassed, not only by the Chinese

guerrilla forces but also by the regular army which is apparently better organised than is generally indicated but emerges only now and then to strike an unexpected blow. In this war of attrition the odds seem definitely' to favour the Chinese. In the meantime, Japan is in a difficult position both at home and abroad. Having spent many years convincing herself of her invincibility and of her dominant position in the Far East, it is obviously not an easy matter to explain to her people why her army and navy are unable to subdue the comparatively ill-prepared and untrained Chinese. It is only to be expected that, despite all the propaganda that is being distributed, the people of Japan must be becoming somewhat war-weary and asking themselves

what they can hope to gain even if the Chinese campaign is carried to a successful conclusion. The main preoccupation of the Japanese Government at the moment, therefore, is to appease its own people. Since this cannot be done by presenting them with victory in China it has been necessary to raise another issue, and if is mainly for this reason that an attempt is being made to secure a cheap victory over Great Britain. There has undoubtedly been a loss of Japanese prestige owing to the failure to subdue China, and it is probably believed that this can be recaptured by creating an incident with Britain and forcing her lo climb down in the face of continued threats and the maltreatment of her nationals in China. This issue will be put to the test in the near future.

The Tientsin incident is a typical example of Japanese methods. It is complained that certain Chinese in the British concession have been acting as terrorists, and the Japanese desire to bring them to trial. It seems likely that the charges against the Chinese are well founded, because it is inconceivable that the Chinese should remain inactive in the face of the wrongs to which they have been subjected; it is inevitable that there should be some attempt to exact vengeance. But even if every charge made by the Japanese is substantiated is there any real ground for complaint? If Japan uses force against the Chinese, are the Chinese to be condemned for resorting to similar methods against the Japanese and those who support them? After all, it was the Japanese who started lawlessness and treaty-breaking and it is they who, even now, are holding large areas by these means. If they will not observe the law they cannot expect their victims to do so, let alone demand that Great Britain should intervene on their side. And this, in effect, is what the Japanese are demanding. They have insisted time and again that Britain should cooperate in Japan’s policy of Asia for the Asiatics, but at the same time Japan has made it clear that her idea

of co-operation is domination, and to that Britain can hardly be expected to submit. *

Admittedly Britain, in view of the European situation, is in a difficult position, but she is not by any means powerless in regard to the Far East. II is significant that the Japanese Government attaches all the responsibility' for the Tientsin incident on tho shoulders of the military authorities on tho spot, and equally significant that the Government has done its best

to postpone the conference that has been arranged to take place in Tokio. Officially, Japan has not a log to stand on and when it comes to diplomatic negotiations she will almost certainly be compelled to climb down. The moment she does this in regard to Tientsin, however, she will be placed in the wrong in regard to her other activities in Chinese foreign concessions and might even be compelled to lift the blockade to which shy attaches so much importance. In the meantime, therefore, she is procrastinating and, at the same time, carrying out a national campaign designed to picture Britain as the arch-enemy of Japan. How far she will go remains to be seen, but Britain, while she admittedly cannot afford a military clash with Japan at the moment, equally cannot afford to tolerate continued domination and aggression against her own interests. For this reason she must force the issue in the near future and it is not improbable that the policy adopted by Britain will have farreaching effects on the Far East situation generally.