OIL AND WAR.

Evening Star, Issue 23375, 19 September 1939, Page 8

OIL AND WAR.

In modern warfare oil is a highly important factor. This was proved in the Great War, and in the intervening quarter of a century its value as an aid to military, naval, and aerial operations has become greater than ever. Mechanised armaments requiring the use of oil have increased enormously. This was observed in the fighting in Poland, where tanks and other motordrivqn vehicles played so conspicuous a part. It was stated on Saturday in a message from New York that the Nazis were battering a direct road to Rumania and to Russia, on which is dependent the supply to Germany of oil and food, thereby defeating the British blockade. Further, it was added that Russia does not cancel her determination to provide Germany with overseas products, and Rumania has no choice in the matter. In a Note by the Soviet to the Ambassadors and Ministers of all States maintaining diplomatic relations with Russia it was stated that that country would pursue a policy of neutrality in her relations with those States. That declaration will not prevent. Stalin from giving such aid to the Nazis as he thinks advisable. His policy will be dictated by self-interest. In his book, ‘ Germany’s War Chances,’ Dr Ivan Lajos emphasised that the significance of oil in a coming war would assume extraordinary proportions; it would be a struggle of motors, and the life-blood of motors is oil.

One of the most prominent German authorities on economics, writing two years ago, said that without oil modern armies would be condemned to complete immobility and to a defeat as certain as would be implied by lack of weapons or munitions. Mussolini's rapid success in Abyssinia was due chiefly to the fact that he had sufficient supplies of oil to carry on mechanised warfare. Without them he would have been committed to a protracted campaign. Every State’s principal anxiety in peace-time is a solution of its oil problem, and every State attempts to secure well in advance the necessary oil for the needs of its array, navy,- and air force. Fortunately there is no apprehension in Great Britain on this matter. Germany, no doubt, had acquired heavy stocks of oil before she declared war, but already she must have used large quantities in the Polish campaign. In the opinion of Dr Lajos, Germany, of all the Great Powers, is perhaps in the most disadvantageous position in the matter of oil. She has tested her own country for underground supplies, with very poor results, and attempts have been made to remedy the situation by the production of synthetic oil from coal, and in this she has had considerable success. The point is, however, that in 1937, out of an oil consumption of 5,150,000 tons, internal supplies provided 39.5 per cent. Under war conditions the cal! on tho oil supplies would be augmented enormously. One authority estimates a Great Power’s war needs at 30 to 40 million tons.

Dr Lajos declares that Germany cannot count on imports from oversea countries, pointing out that though she had'concluded a commercial agreement with Rumania, that country’s production of oil has been steadily falling. Last year it was only G,350,T00 tons, and Rumania had an agreement with France to supply oil to the latter country. Britain also has an agreement which reserves considerable quantities of Rumania’s production for export to British ports. With Russia’s goodwill, large quantities ■of oil might he purchased at Batum, which is connected with the Baku oil wells, but transportation in the existing circumstances seems to present an insoluble problem. There is a limit to the quantities of oil any country can store because of financial and technical difficulties, and there is also danger from bombing raids and sabotage. An adequate oil supply is vital.to Germany's war plans. This will probably be one of the major difficulties she has to meet.