AMERICA’S PATH

Evening Star, Issue 23370, 13 September 1939, Page 7

AMERICA’S PATH

IN THE NEW CONFLICT AN ANALYSIS OF OPINION CAN SHE BE NEUTRAL ? What would bo America’s attitude in the event of war in Europe? asked a writer in the Melbourne ‘ Age ’ in August. It is a question that the whole world has been asking during the past months of international tension, and one that national leaders and the ordinary roan and woman realises may easily be a decisive factor in tho shaping or future world affairs. Deductions that have been made by the American Institute of Public Opinion, based on the results of a popular , American and thoroughly democratic instrument the plebiscite—therefore provide an interesting guide to the decisions that might be expected of Congress—decisions of as momentous import to the Australian people as to those living closer to the heart of restless Europe. Writing in the ‘ New York Times,’ Mr George Gallup, a director of the Institute of Public Opinion, believes he can accurately summarise American thought and purpose thus: (1) The American people want to stay out of war, but (2) they want to give all possible assistance to Britain and France, short of going to war, in the event of war coming. NEW SENTIMENT CREATED. These two fundamental principles have been attested by surveys during the past four years which reveal a steady but continuous reorientation of American sentiment—hastened by recent events in Europe—and to them. Mr Gallup feels, can be added national agreement .upon the necessity of building up America’s defences. There is-still great strength en the American belief, which became evident with the signing of the 1918 armistice that the United States should never again take part in a European war, with which is associated the opinion (indicated by a plebiscite majority of 61 per cent.) that a national vote should be taken before the country could draft men to fight overseas. However, there is also a growing tendency among Americans to identify their own safety and interests with those of Great Britain and France, and to believe that the United States must bo prepared to assist those nations with food supplies and war materials. A widespread American expectation that a new European war is approaching has also been discerned in American public opinion, and with it is also a great fear that America will eventually become actively involved in it, fostered largely by the belief that material assistance to one side cannot have anv other result.

WAR IN EUROPE EXPECTED. It has been made abundantly clear, however, that the isolationism of two decades ago has undergone a material modification that is entirely modern and which, moreover, passive sympathies for Haile Selassie, China, and the Spanish loyalists failed to provoke. The change has been co-ilundental with tho increasing fear of a European war. 111,1937, while wars were proceeding in Spain and China, only 16 per cent, of the American people believed that a major war was imminent, but Hitler's seizure of Austria, and then Sudetenlgnd, shocked a.. large-Bee-

tion of the people into an altered view. In January this year 44 per cent, of the people expected war during 1939, and of these a majority thought America would be drawn in. Subsequent events have given added impetus to the changing opinion, and today more than half the voters expect war before January. Before the grim crisis of last September American public opinion was not averse from the supplying of their former allies with food, but was in perfect alignment with the Neutrality Act in opposing the shipment of war materials. Munich led to a minority favouring the sending of arms to Franco and Britain, but after the final dismemberment of Czecho-S'ovakia a vote on the question of aiding France and Britain resulted in 82 per cent, favouring the sale of food supplies and 57 per cent, agreeing to the sale of war materials to those nations which stand in closer relationship to America in mode of life and government.

On the average only one American in 100 objects to aiding Britain and France because of sympathies for the totalitarian States. One of the most significant factors underlying the plebiscite was the undivided opinion between the two great rival political schools. European events have obviously caused Americans to see the danger to America of the Rome-Berlin axis which • would follow the defeat of the “ other democracies.”

Despite their pessimism concerning America’s ability to resist influences which might result in it being drawn into a European conflagration, average Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to the sending of troops abroad. "Why should Americans die in somebody else’s quarrel? Wait until they attack the United States.” These wore typical opinions of American voters which even Hitler’s seizure of Czocho-Slovakia did not alter. Americans are more than six to one against sending troops abroad, and there is not a unanimous conviction that the case of Britain and France against Germany is absolutely just. THE PRINCIPAL WISHES. After all Hitler’s unpopular moves four Americans in ten believe that Germany was unfairly treated after the World War, and even to-day a majority would welcome an international conference if it could settle Italian and German claims in a way that could result in an assurance of honourable peace. All these things render an accurate prediction of American attitude in the event of hostilities in Europe almost impossible. A great deal would depend on the situation in America and abroad, opinion on the responsibility for tho war, and, perhaps, even the typo of war. American public opinion, as indicated by the plebiscites, therefore, broadly seems to bo: — The people are prepared to expect war, as they were' not prepared in 1914.

American people are willing to lend material assistance to Britain and France to an extent thought impossible in 1937.

The neutrality legislation may be changed, but America desires to stay out of war itself, and is not prepared to undertake another crusade to make the world safe for democracy. On the relative strength of the purpose implied in these wishes, says Mr Gallup, depends American action if war comes.