“FROM DESPAIR TO HOPE.”

Evening Star, Issue 21743, 11 June 1934, Page 8

“FROM DESPAIR TO HOPE.”

It is a matter for profound relief that the Disarmament Conference has taken a new lease of life and hopefulness. Mr Henderson, who alone did not despair of it. prior to the latest stage, can take pleasure in feeling how “ sudden the worst turns the best to the brave; the black minute’s at end.” It is probable that, at the meetings at which a complete breakdown was threatened, M. Barthou spoke with more incisiveness because it was not his own case that he was arguing but the brief confided to him by a majority of the French Cabinet, as to the terms of which he had been himself overruled. He had to convince himself as well as the general commission. When the last French Note was published embodying the policy which ho was required to support, it was widely stated in France that that was not the policy of the Foreign Office. M. Barthou was reported to have protested vainly that the attitude imposed on him was equivalent not only to accepting a new armaments race, but to taking the responsibility for it. It is quite certain that France wants neither of these things. She has reason to mistrust the ultimate designs of Germany, drunk with Hitlerism as she now is; to fear her great numerical superiority; and to doubt whether new restrictions which’ might be applied to the rearmament of her big neighbour would be more secure against evasion than restrictions of fch© past. But phe cannot afford an armament race at a time when she is cutting salaries and wages at the risk of riots to maintain some stability for her finances. Least of all, if the conference wore to fail, could she afford to incur the obloquy of causing its failure. Probably no Frenchman is really alarmed at Marshal Petain’s picture of a Germany already “rearmed to pre-war strength,” able to put 1,600,000 men in the field in a week and 2,800,000 in a month. The real test of ability to make war is not being able to put men in the field but being able to keep them there. Germany knows her own financial straits; it is not conceivable that she wants war within any early period. Either on second thoughts or on second instructions from Paris—following also on the good offices for mediation of the American Ambassador—M. Bartl ion lias withdrawn from his

extreme position, and lias sponsored a motion which recognises the necessity for the return of Germany to the conference, which may be facilitated by private conversations, and lays down programmes, alike of security and disarmament, to which committees can apply themselves until the commission meets again. It is hoped that, when that happens, it will have before it “as far as possible a complete draft convention.” M. Barthou is to visit London next month. He is not so sure if he will be able to visit Signor Mussolini, who will see what he can do as a conciliator, i and will bring his friendly influences to bear first upon Herr Hitler. Mussolini does not want an armaments race. His Government also has been reducing salaries, and making the most desperate efforts to avert a deficit. An extension will be sought of regional security pacts, as one preparatioh for the next meeting of the Disarmament Conference, and, if Germany can be persuaded that she is not threatened by it, the new understanding which is announced between the Little Entente and Russia should be welcomed as a development of that movement. The grievance which existed for a long time between Russia and Rumania, one of the parties to the Little Entente, over the Peace Treaties’ disposal of Bessarabia, was ended some time ago, the Saar tension has been mitigated, and if Germany and Russia could both find a place in the League the prospects for general peace planning should be better than they have been at most seasons. To be welcomed also is the prospect of a meeting between President Roosevelt and leading Japanese statesmen at a conference which it is hoped will “ cement United States and Japanese relations and obliterate war talk ” between those two Powers. That loaves only Japanese-Russian relations to be adjusted to make the position comparatively clear in the Far East. So far as the Disarmament Conference is concerned, it is not strange that difficulties—even the most threatening difficulties—should have been experienced. After a world history of warfare, and of jealously regarding armaments as their own affair, it is only during the short space of fourteen years that nations have, been able to discuss such things.