FALLING BIRTH RATE

Evening Star, Issue 19792, 16 February 1928, Page 2

FALLING BIRTH RATE

HEW LOW LEVEL RECORD INDICATED FURTHER DECLINE IN DEATH RATE INFANTILE MORTALITY AGAIN DOWN. Figures supplied by the Government Statistician in the monthly Abstract of Statistics indicate that the record low dominion birth-rate established in 1926 will show a decline to a still lower level for 1927. The death rate shows an appreciable decline. The infantile mortality rate for the dominion is expected to show an improvement on the record low rate for 1926.

The Government Statistician slates that the statistics of births and deaths for the fourteen urban areas of New Zealand are now available for the'year 1927, Figures covering the whole of the dominion, however, cannot be ascertained for some time. Nevertheless, as the urban areas comprise over 50 per cent, of the total population of the dominion, it is possible to foresee approximately the birth and death rates for the whole country. The urban areas, in the aggregate, invariably have a somewhat lower birth-rate, and somewhat higher rates of deaths and of infantile mortality, than the dominion as a whole. The birth statistics for the five years 1922-26, with those for the urban areas for 1927, are as follow Rale per 1,000 * Number. of population. Urban Urban

The figures show that for the first time since 1923 the number of births registered -in the urban areas lias shown a decrease during the year 1927. As a rule, the number of births registered, both for the dominion as a whole and for the urban areas, shows a slight increase year by year, although such increase is not usually sufficient to produce a corresponding rise in the birthrate (with the exception of the 1926 urban-area rate). It is therefore not surprising to note the rather substantial decrease m the urban-area birthrate for 1927, in view of the conditions outlined above. At the same time, it is worthy of remark that this rate is the lowest so far recorded for the urban areas, and, moreover, it is indicative that the record low dominion birth-rate established in 1926 will this year decline to a still lower level. This is all the more probable when cognizance is taken of the fact that the births registered throughout the dominion during the first nine months of the year 1927 show an actual decrease in numbers as compared with the figures for the corresponding portion of the previous year. A slightly more favorable position is revealed in the statistics of deaths, the figures for the five years 1922-26, with those for the urban areas for 1927, being as follow: _ Rate per 1,000 Number. of population. Urban Urban

With the absence of any noticeable epidemics during 1927, it follows that the year should show a decrease in the number of deaths, especially as the previous year experienced two fairly substantial epidemics—viz, one of influenza and one of whooping-cough. This expectation is substantiated by the urban-area figures, which indicate that the deaths of 6,393 persons were registered therein during 1927, this number being decrease of 76 over 1926. The death rate also shows an appreciable decline, and it is reasonable to suppose from the indications that this decline will be reflected in the death rate for the whole of the dominion. The decline, however, of the dominion death-rate will not bo sufficient to bring the figure to the record low level established in 1924 and 1925. The Government Statistician remarks that, considering the exceptionally low rates of infantile mortality achieved in New Zealand for many years past, it is more or less unreasonable to expect an unbroken succession of annual decreases in this rate. The slight increase recorded for 1927 in the infant mortality rate for the urban areas (45.12, as compared with 44.47 for 1926) may be regarded, therefore, as of little importance comparatively. The figures for the five years 1922-26, with those for the urban areas for 1927, are as follow: Kale per 1,000 Number. of population.

The dominion figures for the first nine months of the years 1926 and 1927 show a. very substantial decline for the latter year, and there is every prospect that, in spite of a heavy fall in the number of births registered during the same period, the infantile mortality rate for New Zealand as a whole will show some improvement on the record low rate of 39.76 recorded for 1926.

Ycm. Dominion. areas. Dominion. areas. 1922 29.006 12,815 23.17 20.62 1923 27967 12,420 21.04 19.58 1924 28.014 12,090 21.57 19.58 1925 28,153 12,72, • 21.17 18.05 1920 28,473 13,334 21.03 19.24 1927 — 13,053 — 18.29

Year, Dominion. areas. Dominion. areas. 1922 10,977 8,713 6.77 9.26 1923 11,511 0,069 9.03 9.57 1924 10,767 5,738 8,29 8.85 1925 11,036 5,944 ' 8.29 8.85 1326 11,819 0,469 8.74 9.33 1927 — 6,393 — 8.96

Urban Urban Year. Dominion. areas. Dominion areas. 1923 1.215 mo 41.89 46.74 1923 1,225 623 43.89 50.16 1921 1,127 670 40.23 44.89 1925 1,125 560 39.9(1 44.70 1929 1.132 593 39.70 44.47 1927 — 680 — 45.12