The Evening Star MONDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1875.

Evening Star, Issue 3726, 1 February 1875, Page 2

The Evening Star MONDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1875.

From time to time a feeling of uneasiness manifests itself among moneyed men respecting the future of the Colony. It is not based on any sound deductions from passing events, but assumes somewhat of the form of commercial hypochondriasis, which forbodes evil, no one kg.ows why. Talk to some of the afflicted ones, they tell you our prosperity is ephemeral, that it will be followed by a commercial panic, and that the present value of property cannot be maintained. They even go so far as to fix the period when this terrible event is to take place, and with boldness greater than that of Dr. Cummin when he predicted the end of the world, they fix the date at two years hence. The Doctor had, as he thought, the sure word of prophecy to guide him, anti his mistake was a misreading. Our minor prophets trust to their own inspiration and the dismal forebodings of their fellowcroakers. We do not imagine that any of these unfulfilled prophecies do much in the way of checking progress, but they indicate the absence of knowledge of those circumstances which usually precede and produce commercial panics. These are war, deficient harvest and high price of food at Home, the withdrawal of necessary capital from commercial pursuits and the investment of it in the form of fixed capital, and gigantic financial operations causing a temporary withdrawal of bullion from the Bank of England. The enumei’ation of this list might be enlarged, but in all probability any addition to it would, on careful examination, be capable of being referred to one or other of these heads. Anyone who thinks for a moment upon the character of the operations desqribed will see that panics are the result of unexpected drains upon business capital to invest it in some new form. It is not that there is less money, but the outlay runs in a new direction—a new channel or an enlarged one has been opened up which must be filled out of the reservoir, and as that has already sufficient drain upon it, through channels requiring stated supplies, the new one robs them of that amount necessary to keep them filled. Human wants are not altered, human hands are waiting for work; but too much money is spent on one object, and there is not enough to lay out in keeping the rest going. It would be madness, in the present state of the world, to say that not one of these fertile causes of panic will take place within two years; but it is not too much to say there is no present appearance of it. Instead of food rising at Home, the price is falling, and although there has also been a slight reduction of wages, there will be more general comfort and commercial and manufacturing activity in the Home market. ISo great changes are taking place at Home such as the investment of millions of capital in railroads, while those at present constructed are paying good dividends, and any in course of construction, cost, comparatively with the old ones, but little; war may be brewing,—it always is fermenting in Europe—but neither parties nor nations are ready for it, and there is the chance that present complications may be tided over at least for eight or ten years; and as for the disease of the commercial heart, which poverty of bullion at the Bank may fairly be called; although there was for a short time a rise in the rate of discount, with trade flat, no foreign finance to disturb matters, and gold pouring in from the Colonies and California, there is greater probability of a decrease than an advance in the price of money. Should the United States resume specie payments without an equitable adjustment of the value of debts contracted on terms of . credit to : be paid for in cash of enhanced value some trouble might ensue; but we think that will not take place yet—though even the rumor of its probabi*

♦ <• lity might be the death-blow to many j thriving firms. For our own parts, j in view ot the present state of com- i merce we see no reason for the i apprehensions so widely indulged in. | So far as the prospects of New Zealand are concerned, we are certainly not rich enough to be independent of the aid of the Mother Country ; but what is there to seriously cloud our prospects 1 It is proved beyond question, that there can be no more profitable investment than that in a skilled adult laborer, and they are coming into the country, and causing a demand for more. The vast resources of the country are scarcely touched. Our improved machinery for cheapening production is not completed, and only very partially in operation, but, wherever it has been wqfrked, it practically refutes the idea that the revenue derived from it will have to be supplementedjout of taxes toprovidefor the payment of interest. The rise in the value of landed property has been great, but not greater than is justified by the income derivable from its use ; and even wool, which showed symptoms of decline at the last sales, will, most likely, recover, now that it seems certain that cotton will be in short supply. We have not, thus far in this country, indulged in wild and extravagant speculations to any extent. Perhaps it is well that the faith of moneyed men has been abused by a few unprincipled swindlers, for it has confined speculative operations to bona fide investments ; and few have stepped out beyond their means in new undertakings. So long as we continue to follow this safe practice there is not much danger of retrogression. Experience has shown us that even serious financial difficulties may take place in W all street and Threadneedle street without producing much disturbing effect here, beyond leading to a little extra caution, and men may pursue their callings in New Zealand, and lay themselves down to rest at night without the uneasy consciousness that a turn of the screw of the Bank of England next day may reduce them to beggary. It is unwise to be over sanguine, but it is foolish to be on the constant look out for trouble. “ He that observeth the wind shall not sow, and lie that regardeth the clouds shall not reap.” The over sanguine often err by anticipating the necessity for investment; the timid hypochondriac dare not do right lest he should do wrong. Both classes would be better with knowledge to guide them, and we think the course of thought we have marked out will lead to a conviction that our future is likely to be at least fairly prosperous.