BALKANS AND THE AXIS

Evening Post, Volume CXXX, Issue 92, 15 October 1940, Page 8

BALKANS AND THE AXIS

There is a disposition to assume! that because Germany—with Italy] in the background—has succeeded, without much difficulty, in securing a foothold in Rumania, the rest of the way through the Balkans —should that be the plan, and there seems little doubt about it—will be, com- ! paratively, just as easy for the Axis. The facts hardly warrant such a conclusion. Rumania, it is true, through the weakness, or worse, of her rulers, has let down the barriers, and the Germans—witft the Italians in their [ train —are pouring in. They are far from popular with the Rumanians, as the news indicates, but they have occupied all the more important strategic points and resistance would now probably be hopeless. Rumania, therefore, becomes an Axis base, not only for land, but also for sea and air operations. German submarines are said already to have been launched, via the Danube, in the Black Sea. The attitude of Bulgaria is not so definitely pro-Axis as Berlin would like to make out. The Bulgars are a Slav people and their natural sympathies are more with Russia than with Germany. Moreover they remember how Germany exploited them as allies in the last war. Again, they have Turkey and Greece, with their close relations with Britain, to the south of them, and Yugoslavia, with its sturdy .independence, tp. the west. The

Bulgarians are likely to be strongly influenced by what their neighbours do.

Yugoslavia, stretching down from the borders of German Austria and beyond the Danube to the Greek frontier near Salonica, is the immediate, if not the ultimate, key to the fate of the Balkans. The Germans are already putting pressure on the Yugoslavs, demanding military concessions and the abandonment of neutrality. What is the reply? It is not the reply the Rumanians gave. The Yugoslav Prime Minister (M. Tsvetkovic), in a speech at Belgrade, reported today, said: We warn everybody that we founded Yugoslavia with blood, and only so can it be taken from us. South Serbia is ours. Here we will fight, and no power on earth will take it from us.

These are brave words, and brave words have been discounted by events elsewhere in this war. But the Serbs, like the Poles, have always been fighters and prefer to go down fighting rather than cringe to the conqueror. That was their record in the Great War, and they received I their reward when victory came to the common cause. It is not likely that they will yield supinely to the Austro-Germans whom they held off in 1914-15 until stabbed in the back by Bulgaria. Behind the Yugoslavs are the Turks and the Greeks. If the Greeks, beyond manning the Albanian frontier against threats from the Italians, remain silent, the Turks, through their newspapers, remind Germany that a strong Turkish army is standing ready for any emergency, and declare that Germany must take the Soviet Union into account. One paper states that Russia would not allow the Dardanelles to pass into German hands. These references to Russia cite no authority, and may be taken, perhaps, as "wishful thinking." The real attitude of Russia remains a mystery. There are reports of Russian troops massing heavily in Bessarabia, but, even if they are true, it is uncertain whether the intention is to defend Russia or to bar the way to the Germans through the Balkans to the Dardanelles. Both towards Japan in the East and the Axis in the West the policy of the Sphinx of the Kremlin is still obscure and inscrutable. Speculation is accordingly vain. All that can be said is that with Russia lies the ultimate key to the Balkan situation and that the action of Russia may profoundly alter the course of the war. ,