RIDDLE OF FUTURE

Evening Post, Volume CXXIII, Issue 136, 10 June 1937, Page 4

RIDDLE OF FUTURE

RUSSIA AFTER STALIN

HOW HE HOLDS THE BALANCE

THREE COURSES OPEN

Far beneath his top-booted feet theRed god lay entombed—a shrunken little man who had spent most of'his life in murky lodgings in cities outside his homeland, dreaming, with ths ferocious zest of the one-idea'd, of a world proletarian order, a brotherhood of man, rising glorious and triumphant from the smoking ruins of what men, imprisoned in capitalist ideology, call "modern civilisation," writes C. Patrick Thompson in the "New York HeraldTribune." His successor had him nicely embalmed, clapped a saluting' base atop his granite tomb; and there he now stood, a tall, vigorous-looking man in plain khaki uniform and peaked military cap, undisputed lord of 170,000,00Q people comprising 150 nationalities contained in an area two and a half times the size of the United States: the eternal realist conquering— at least in this earthly life—the eternal dreamer. The Kremlin sprawled hugely at his back. Around him on the high perch grouped the- Red oligarchs—thick-set, strong men, in civilian clothes. On the lower dais were the leaders of the, I aghting forces. Massed bayonets glinted and glittered in the cold sunlight. Grey, immensely wide columns of soldiers marched and wheeled on the floor of Red Square.. Overhead zoomed flight after flight of giant highwinged metal monoplanes, bombers, and parachute troop carriers. . Surveying the scene, one ceased to wonder why, all night long.for days previous, lights had glowed in the windows of the headquarters building where the gentlemen of the Ogpu come and go, popping in and out of fast black cars, followed by soldier escorts with that distinguishing green band in their hats that so disconcerts the Soviet citizen who opens his door to •an abrupt knocking at one o'clock in the morning. There was Russia, the Red Empire— a dozen men lined up against the Moscow* skyline. ; ■ THE LOGICAL SUCCESSION.

After the Romanoff, Kerensky, the bourgeoise talker. After Kerensky, Lenin, the world revolutionary, farthest Left of all the Bolsheviki, in sympathetic emotional tune with the masses in the greatest revolutionary movement in history. After Lenin, Stalin, the social patriot, nationalist defender of the fatherland. , . Thus far, a logical succession. But, after Stalin—what? . '■■.■■ Discussion on this subject grows, in all the capitals, from Berlin to Bucharest, and from Paris to Prague, Angora, and Toßo, as Russia, under .the. deepening shadow of a two-front war, and the necessity for finding allies among the armed democracies, proceeds to elect its first Parliament and

, take its first step along the road away : from dictatorship and towards democracy. Discretion, however, is advisa able. It is, for instance, unwise ; to stroll along the banks of the Moscow. " Hiver audibly discussing the riddle of . what happens if unhappily Fate del cides that Jpseph Stalin, whom God I preserve, dies out of bed and with his t boots on. People have done this, and had serious trouble with the police be [ fore finding. themselves put over the = frontier. ~. .■ . I Russia' has no royalist party left. r Royalty, without a warrior caste, aristocrat class, or great middle class to back it, has no root in any. national organism. Even if the Red republic were smashed in war, a Romanoff could not sustain himself on a restored throne. The Bolshevik have been too thorough in killing off former rulingclass folk; and Russia never developed a buffer class between aristocrat top and peasant-proletariat bottom. Officially, nobody could succeed ' Stalin, any way. As dictator, he has ■no official existence. You wont find him in the new Constitution, Hitle, is President and Chancellor of Nazi Germany,-which lacks a king. Mussolini is Premier of Italy, which has a I king. Ataturk is President of Tur- ' key, with his fellow-general Ismet Pasha, as Premier. The late Alexander of Yugoslavia was King as well as Dictator. But Stalin holds no Government post or State title. He is just the party secretary; boss because he controls all nominations, appointments, patronage. PRESIDENT AND PREMIER. There is a president of the. republic. He is Kalinin, . bearded, bespectacled old guard Bolshevik, who worked with Lenin from. 1903, when the chief Bolshevik split the Social-Democratic Party between the rival advocates of evolution and revolution and headed the latter group. . „»•■,-/ We then have a Premier. Molotoy, a calm, bulky man, Stalin's Man Fsjday. Molotov presides over the Council of Commissars, and has been a Bolshevik: for thirty-four years. An industrious man, who knows all the moves; but not forceful; not the leader type. ■ We next have Kaganovich, the transport boss, ah able and energetic man, one of the younger oligarchs, but not an heir for Stalin. Ordzhonikidze is higher up the line; an old guard Bolshevik who joined the party back in 1903, worked under Lenin, led the revolution in the Caucasus, and now is heavy industry boss. A man with fighting spirit, but without Stalin-s brains and political flair. Maxim Litvinoff cuts a figure in Europe, but not in Russia. He has only lately become known in Bolshevikland, through inspired Press releases. He is a time-server, sbft-nesn-ed adroit, careful to satisfy his master's, keep clear of intrigue, and avoid suspicion of personal ambitions. He has no influence in Russia. He is not one of the oligarchs. _ On the other hand, Bleucher, little known outside Russia, at the last allRussian Congress, got cheers which lasted sixty-seven seconds longer than those which greeted Stalin. That was because he commands Russia's prize institution, the Army of the Far East, 250 000 strong, with 400 aeroplanes, 45U tanks, and 5000 field guns. The oligarchs have made that force practically self-sustaining in its area. It is the shield against Japan. THE RED ARMY'S LEADER. And Voroshilov, boss of the whole war machine and defence organisation, is so popular that Stalin now is rarely photographed without him or him without Stalin alongside. The fame and influence of Voroshilov have risen on the war tide. Forty years ago he was a peasant youth going to his first city job in a steel mill. He inhaled the early revolutionary gas with ardour. At twenty-three he became, a Bolshevik. He was a useful organiser of street riots, but did not mix with the master minds. ■ ■ The Bolshevik plot which overthrew the Kerensky Government was planned in the military section of the Bolshevik Party. Voroshilov participated, without being a leader. He rose steadily in the hierarchy of the Red Guard. He was joined with Buddeniy to organise the Red cavalry, but Buddeniy got the fame. He commanded the Red armies in the Caucasus, but, Ordznonikidze was the official Red boss of the.area. Thus.Voroshilov rose, dependable,, c uncomplaining, obedient, loyal, steady, J r

energetic, • and uninterested in party politics. Lenin died. The oligarchs quarrelled over the succession. Eight and Left wings clashed. And out went Trotsky on his neck. It is the sad, inevitable fate of Left-wingers in all revolutions. If they are not shot or exiled, they get retired to' the boards of big business.

Trotsky, brilliant, offensive, imperious individualist spell-binder, had no machine, few friends, and many enemies. However, Stalin never takes risk.;. He needed dependable men. to take care of the army. Voroshilov stood out as a safe man. ' He was put lin command of the Moscow district. I With Frunze, Voroshilov then purged I the army of Trotsky men; and when 1 Frunze passed, Voroshilov became War j Commissar. I GROWTH OF WAR MACHINE. That was eleven years ago. He has filled out since. Desk work has let flesh accumulate under his chin and i around his middle. But he has developed. He is full of vigour. He looks ten years younger than his fifty-five years. In the trial of the sixteen conspirators of the Kamenev-Ziuoviev group before the Military Collegium last summer, his name kept recurring with Stalin's. "Get Stalin and Voroshilov —an,d other leaders," ran instructionp to gunmen. The pick! of names has significance.

Of equal significance is the vast growth of the war machine. There are nearly 6000 centres of instruction for the army, . which approximates 700,000 regulars, 300,000 militia, with 200,000 Ogpu and special troops. The air fleet is the world's biggest,, with 3000 machines, and a naval air arm quadrupled since 1933. There are 8000 pilots trained annually, and a drive is oh to get 100,000 men with flying licences: Orlov, the navy .chief, has under his hand a force which during the last three years has tripled its battleship strength and increased its submarine strength-five times. ■

All this means an immense and1 closely integrated professional organisation, the growth ,of: a powerful vested interest, the rise of; a new1 esprit de corps, and new loyalties. Stalin has swung over to the national war machine and away from the machine for world conquest through revolution. No successor to Stalin could sustain himself against the hostility of the armed forces. . ■■■ '.

But- that is not altogether the point. The point is, would Russian resistance to German-Japanese ' pressure slide out like the core of an apple under the corer if Stalin disappeared?: Many folk think so. The last batch to entertain the opinion tried to test it by a trial-and-error experiment. It failed, and the would-be experimenters were "liquidated." But suppose the experiment had succeeded? The supposition sheds light on the dark Russian scene. Take a glance at it from the historian's angle:' • CONGRESS ASSEMBLES. "As 1936 drew to its close, the delegates to the All-Russian Congress of Soviets assembled- in the Kremlin throne room. Their business was to vote themselves out of existence as the governing body of the Red realm. They were turning over in 1937 to a twohouse ' Parliament, directly-elected, under a constitution granting secret ballot, freedom of religious worship, independent judiciary, respect for the secrecy of correspondence, legal protection for personal ownership of income from work, legal security for the right of inheritance," and other rights common to the democracies of those days, but peculiar in a dictatorship.

"The chief Bolsheviks occupied a raised dais. The war commissar was missing; Voroshilov had . been shot some weeks previously,. Sergei Kirov, Leningrad boss, would . have been there, too, but he had* been assassinated by the terrorist' Nikolaev in the Smqlny Institute two years earlier.

"The dictator; had descended to the rostrum. Born ■' Dzhugashyili, : but known'by his revolutionary' name of Stalin, he had successfully survived all the hazards of nearly forty years of revolutionary plotting, Siberian exile, war,, revolution, civil strife, terrorist plots, party schisms. Lenin had said of him; 'I trust Stalin, but Stalin trusts nobody.' When the'struggle for Lenin's, mantle was at its height, a, foreign ambassador had written home of him: 'The, great advantage this man has over his rivals is that he lives a regular life and is never sick.-'

"He had begun to read his speech, timed to last 150 minutes, when a small black object sailed throur.'i the air-and stiuck at the base of 'the,, 'rostrum. Dictator and rostrum vanished in a spurt of flame and, smoke. An eyewitness records: 'The great chamber seemed to rock; the shouts and'screams of 3000 delegates were drowned in: the roar of the explosion, while thi air seemed' filled with'blood-stained confetti as the delegates, in a frenzy of excitement and terror, tossed away their .red cards,-which they held-in. their ...hands and waved to signify, a; vote.'-- ■ . - -.-■■■ ;. . ::■• , ;•.. :

"Stalin" was instantly killed. ' Most of the other oligarchs died where they dropped or on their way, to the'doors. Two terrorists were ', the assassins. Doubtless, in the confusion, they.'usecl guns to complete the work of the bomb. , .... , THE THIRD. TO! BE SLAIN;^ \ "Stalin was the .third of the Caesars of that age—the age of the/interregnum between the first and second world wars—to fall. He had been preceded, by Dollfuss, Austrian dictator, assassinated by a pro-German Nazi gang-in Vienna, and by Alexander, King-dictator of Yugoslavia, shot .at Marseilles by a terrorist member 'of a disruptive political group. "When Stalin fell men perceived not only that geographical and international political factors had made the enormous Communist State the keystone in the arch of a world divided between rival economic, empires, but that, owing to his personal qualities and the power he exercised in the Red State, Stalin had been the keystone in the Russian arch. . ..'.

"The headless Bolsheviki, weaving about, in fear invited the, Zinoyiev-, Kamenev opposition .'group - to . rally with them to the defence of "the. Communist cause against? ,the 'supposed White Capitalist and German enemies within'the'Red State. Back'in power, the left-wing men' recalled, Trotsky from exile.-.Promptly the^Spviet institutions were purged of' Stalin men.' ■•

"Actually? theileft-wirig/meii'had conspired with therNazi secret .police"to achieve their coup. This was a retracing of "historical footsteps, for the same German' forces, under the Hohenzollern regime, in order to weaken Russia and force her out of the World War, had transported Lenin and thirty other Bolsheviks across Germany. in a,'sealed train, and released them', a cloud 'of Red bacilli, in Petrograd.

"It was while the- Trotskyites were engaged in consolidating their power that Germany and.Japan struck. This assault from west ;and east was to prove the prelude to the Second:' World War." : '' ' .. .v >V:':,.:

Thus might the future historian have written if the Zinoviev-Kamenev group had succeeded .■ in their, conspiracy against the ruling oligarchs. The details are not inventions of the writer's imagination. They are imported from the official record of the trial of the sixteen before the Military Collegium in Moscow last August. As the sixteen were rubbed out, instead of rubbing out, one can only guess what .would have happened if they had succeeded.

Meantime, Stalin lives strongly. Around him is woven a triple riddle. Will Russia join the other economic empires' of the modern world, and march along their path into the enig-,

matic future? Will Russia be crushed in between, the pressures of the'two great land-hungry, war-minded: States east and west pf:her?;: Or.will Russia prove to be what''Lenin; hoped she would be,'. and Trotsky \wSints her to be^-nobody's fatherland, but'only the tase for a. .world revolution of .the nationless proletariat? ;

.; Under Stalin, -Russia today. shows signs 'of taking the first ..path. '■. Hence the rage of Trotsky, the ebbing'of-the Red tide around the world, the interest of the Nazi Gestapo in any movement which, looks like weakening the strong nationalist dictatorship..by eliminating Stalin and Voroshilov.

'But out of,this, what: ultimately emerges? The outline .of a Russia /reverting to Capitalism, if. the capitalist, democracies, to save themselves/from war with;; aggressive and aggrandised imperialisms, combine to hold off Russia's, enemies, or to fight them if they march on Russia? 'Or the outline of the capitalist countries moving towards an enlightened Socialism if democracies survive, the autocracies gradually relax or disintegrate, under the pressure of economic events, and the Russian experiment in large-scale State Socialism proves finally successful?

These and the several intermediate alternatives are anybody's guess. But anything that Stalin does to promote Russian patriotism, Parliamentarianism, and co-operation with capitalist States for defence is equally bad news for the Trotskyites, world revolutionaries, and the adventurers who play around their fringe. •- ■ ■ - - •■ •■■■■■