FARMERS AND THE FUTURE

Evening Post, Volume CXXIII, Issue 125, 28 May 1937, Page 5

FARMERS AND THE FUTURE

(By Arthur

r Those who have the future of this country , at heart must have been encouraged' by two cables recently sent to the Prime Minister informing him of support and approval of a policy of ■ carefully conceived and controlled migration. The first of these cables emanated from a resolution passed at the first national conference of the New Zealand Five Million Club, and represented the thoughts of a body of men and women in all walks of life. The second was sent on the initiative of the. Dominion Settlement Association and was supported by a number of influential bodies, including the New Zealand Farmers' Union, Women's Division (Inc.). It came as an unpleasant surprise then to find, only a few days subsequently, the Dominion executive Of the New Zealand Farmers' Union expressing as its considered opinon "that the time was not opportune for New Zealand to adopt a largescale immigration policy." One can only hope that the question of migration lay at the end of a heavy agenda paper and was not discussed until approaching the adjournment hour. Or was it that members were unconscious-, ly affected by the proverbially unfortunate thirteenth, the date on which this pronouncement was made? The only alternative conclusion left is a sad one ihdeed. We can only think that an organisation representing the largest industry in the country, the greatest vested interest in the Dominion and that section of economic activity responsible for the' greater part of the natibnal income is dominated by men whose minds are closed to facts that must be obvious to the least intelligent section of the community. If this is so, it is all the more laudable that the Women's Division of that organisation has, by openly supporting the cable sent by the .Dominion Settlement Association, demonstrated that the verdict of a handful of men need not be taken too seriously as the consolidated opinion of the farming community. , . Nevertheless, the fact that the Men's Division has, "through its executive, made this statement is a serious matter, because it shows that there is still a section of the public that is confused in thought upon the subject of migration. It is not known whether the words of the Dominion executive, of the Farmers' Union were carefully chosen or not. The phraseology rather leads to the conclusion that they were hot. But whether carefully chosen or not. they indicate a certain carelessness of thought upon the subject of migration that is all the more dangerous when it is remembered that the Dominion executive should represent the great body of farmers and be their voice and guide. UNION'S MISUNDERSTANDING. The focus of attention' is centred upon the two words "large-scale immigration." Combined the words indicate that the minds of the'delegates dwelt in a past which at the present rate of change has-already become archaic. .The'executive ;must have had in mind the "open door" type of immigration. that has previously lead to so many grievous mistakes and failures.' That they used the term "large-scale" not only confirms this contention, but also reveals that their thoughts envisaged a literal swamping of this country with incomers after the fashion of an invasion. Or did the Dominion executive at that late hour confuse a warlike possibility of the future with the present needs of this country? Then, in the choice of that stigmatic word "immigration" the members gave further proof of the direction and location of their thoughts. The immigrant has come to mean, through association with certain failures that are not denied, an undesirable human being who has' unfortunl--ately found his way to these shores. An immigrant is essentially one who has come here either assisted or unassisted without organisation—a phenomenon of .the past again. And then, as though unwilling to be left out in the cold, or, perhaps, having in mind the greater display of wisdom on the.part of the Women's Division, the Dominion executive went on to accompany this branch of its organisation by the gentle statement that-it raised no great objection to child migration along the lines of Flock House. But in doing this it merely confirmed a suspicion already raised by'its employment of the two words that.are discussed.' The delegates must have , had in mind as an interpretation of the word "immigration" exclusively rural settlement. This also helps to establish accurately the condition of their thoughts as retroactive. Then when they finally deplore the fact that the younger generation is leaving the land because of lack of prospects ; and suggest financial assistance from'the'Government for these young people, they become guilty of a very neat piece of mental tergiversation tantamount-to a denial of their first outburst of dogmatical decision. Farming is admittedly vitally important to the economics of this country, but that does not entitle farmers to an exclusive dictation of policy or protection. WEAKNESS OF ECONOMIC STRUCTURE. The history of New Zealand from early colonial days to^the present time is the story of the development of the primary industries. In the sphere of politics as,,well as economics the interests of the farming community have invariably been placed first. The soil and climatic conditions, together with a relative deficiency in the raw materials'of industry, have practically left the country no alternative method of development. But it has meant a certain weakness in the national economic structure. Some half-dozen products constitute the bulk of agrarian export. Ninety-four per cent, of all exports are derived from primary industries, and 54 per cent, of the national income is obtained from this source. This has meant that for more than half the annual revenue the country has to rely upon successful competition in the world markets, and is therefore particularly sensitive to world price movements. In addition, the fact that the major portion of exports consist of a remarkably few commodities gives to the national structure a rigidity and inelasticity that is most difficult, if not practically impossible, to overcome. And to these disadvantages must be added the fact that between 70 and 80 per cent, of all exports are dependent upon a single market. At the present time New Zealand has very little control over national prosperity; the country _is forced to move in line with its chief competitors in the matter of prices. On the other hand, while susceptible throughout the entire economic system to any fluctuation in selling prices, the country is bounden by operative charges that are slow to adjust themselves to differentiations in selling price ratios; for instance, interest.

Frascr.)

ATTITUDE TO MIGRATION

FALLACY OF RECENT RESOLUTIONS

charges, wages, freight, and: insurance costs are not subject to the same rapid movement as the prices obtainable for export produce. The situation is clear!y revealed in the ffct that New Zealand has the greatest external trade per capita of any. country in # the world —a doubtful distinction. Under existing conditions no benefit can be derived from an artificial expansion of secondary industries. In the circumstances they have now reached almost the limit of possible development. Nor can a greater measure of economic stability be obtained from any attempt to improve the percentage of primary products locally consumed, for, the good reason that the one-fifth already absorbed represents just about the maximum capacity of the local stomach New Zealand as a whole is remarkably well fed. We are. therefore, faced with two factors, again under present cir-. ; eumstances, that will tend increasingly lo affect adversely1 the economic future of the Dominion. In the first place the principal market for New Zealand export, the United Kingdom, has reached the limit of its willingness co accept, and, under the present policy of resuscitation of home agriculture, coupled with'an evident tendency for a decline in population, will B™du a Ny become a diminishing outlet for Dominion export. • And in the secom place the expansionary P°sslbll'V^b?e the local market are made negligible by the fact that the .population of this country is almost at the point o becoming stationary, and, at the same time, those possibilities are tending^toj contract through the .falling demand consequent on a growing senility. TWO OPPORTUNITIES. The future offers two opportunities: new markets, and a closer balance between internal and external consumption through an increase of PWU» tion .The chances of obtaining other markets than those, already existing are very slight,.as Governments have already discovered. More over, an increase of exports necessarily implies today an increase- of imports so that in the end we are no better off because we are still at the mercy of every fluctuation in world prices, and, owing to the necessity for greater imports, will be restricted as regards the expansion of our industrial life. The better course is, then, to increase the local population. The absurdity of the view expressed by the Dominion executive ,of the Farmers Union is thus obvious. We cannot go on maintaining our present high standard of living with an economy whose inherent weaknesses are aggravated by a population deficiency that is making itself felt with increasing intensity in ■ every form of economic activity. There are two ways in which population may be increased; by raising the birth-rate and by migration. T^e first method, while it is best, will take some time before it can become effective; a tremendous amount of Investigation will be necessary, and then certain legislative measures will be required, both of which will need time before any tangible results will be noticeable. The time lag will have to be overcome by migration. ■ To revert to the old-system of the open door would be fatal or disappointing of results. Probably the lat> ter because the free movement of peoples seems no longer to obtain in the world. We live in a highly-organ-ised age: man is helpless today with-1 out the aid and assistance of organisation, and man is the most immobile commodity in evistence. If New Zealand were to throw open her doors to Western peoples tomorrow, it is doubtful whether more than a:.mere handful would come to these shores if there were no organisation behind j them. ' . Organisation is as necessary internally as it is as an external inducement to people to come out to these last, loneliest islands. Certain changes must take place in the economic structure of the Dominion in order to mitigate present weaknesses. But if the economic equilibrium is not to be violently disturbed these changes must take place gradually. It follows, therefore, thaMhere-can-be no question of large-scale immigration. The migration that-is so urgently wanted is that which 'Will-be obtained -from a series of collateral schemes having as their objective the' establishment of anything from twenty or thirty persons to a hundred or so families a year. The inevitable answer of the farmer to either rising or falling prices has always been greater production. In most cases this has eventually led either to checking the rise or prolonging the fall period. What he really wants is greater potential.consumption, and if.he can obtain' this" internally rather than externally; not only will he secure a greater measure of control of prices, but also better prospects for those younger members of hi? community who are today leaving the landN If one is to take the Dominion executive of the Farmers' Union as representative of farming thought, it is surprising that the truth has hot yet dawned upon a section of the community which cannot otherwise than benefit'from any augmentation of the urban population of this country. One would have thought that the-dictates of self-interest alone would have been sufficient to place the Farmers' Union solidly behind the growing opinion that planned migration is the most urgent need of New Zealand.