The Evening Post. THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 1934. BRILLIANT DIPLOMACY

Evening Post, Volume CXVII, Issue 63, 15 March 1934, Page 10

The Evening Post. THURSDAY, MARCH 15, 1934. BRILLIANT DIPLOMACY

In the February number of the; "Fortnightly Review" the. place ■of honour is given to ah'article entitled "Litvinoffs Diplomatic Year," by, Mr. Louis Fischer, a distinguished. American journalist who has-ian intimate knowledge of Russia and for some years has been the Moscow correspondent of the New- York "Nation." ' No Foreign Minister, says Mr. Fischer in his opening paragraph, spent as much time abroad during 1933 as did Maxim Litvinoff. But, none registered so many important political' successes. The- last and most brilliant of these—United States "de jure"1' recognition—merely crowns a whole series of diplomatic triumphs ■which have inordinately strengthened Moscow's international position and 'N fundamentally modified its foreign policy. . M. Litvinoff is described by Mr. Fischer as "a rugged realist" who saw that the World Revolution was not coming and that the Soviet Union needed less negative and-more fruitful contacts with other nations.' In this new'point of view Mr. Fischer finds the first clue to the change in the Soviet's foreign policy. The second is its estrangement from Germany and its friendship with France. Chicherin, M. Litvinoff's predecessor at the Foreign Office, had often said to Mr. Fischer that, the Soviet Government must prefer good relations with weak coun tries. Hence the special attention that he paid to Lithuania, Turkey, Germany, Persia, etc. '~ •■ But while such a principle was ethical and altruistic, it was not very profitable. It was too unpractical for the practical Litvinoff. It was too unpractical for the practical Joseph Stalin. To Mr,. Fischer's two clues to the change in. Russia's foreign policy— the disadvantages of isolation and the fear of Nazi Germany—he certainly would not object to our adding the fear of Japan as a third. So conspicuous a motive is, of course, given due prominence in his review. While describing the growing Soviet "rapprochement" with France as "the best possible guarantee against a foreign attack on Russia's Western frontier," and admitting that "there is as yet no such guarantee in the . East," Mr. Fischer fully appreciates the significance of M. Litvinoff's striking achievement at Washington. We have already quoted his description of it as the most brilliant of M. Litvinoff's. many successes during the.year. More specifically, he sees in. President Roosevelt's declaration of his desire to establish "not merely normal but friendly-relations" with the Soviet Union no mere formal announcement but "a fact of1' tremendous international moment." Apart altogether from its commercial aspects, he recognises that the restoration of the Soviet Union's diplomatic relations with the United States has increased its prestige and its influence; in the arena of world diplomacy,, and that as the joint result of all M. Litvinoff's successes in 1933 ;"the U.S.S.R. emerges as a great Power with a foreign policy worthy of its 'hard-boiled' Foreign Commissar." ' Though Mr. Fischer refrains from any speculation as to the military effects in the Far East of Russia's greatly improved position, he discusses the prospects of her clash with Japan single-handed in a much less pessimistic' tone than that of most recent commentators. ' General Mac Arthur, Chief of Staff of the United States Army, told two Russian journalists who accompanied M. Litvinoff to Washington that he expected a Soviet-Japanese war;in the spring of 1934, but Mr.. Fischer quotes the remark only to dissent from it. I am constrained, he says, to differ with my gallant countryman arid, with the Bolsheviks who heartily agree with the American general. Itis my con' viction that the very material strengthening of the U.S.S.R.'s military defences in Siberia will deter Japan from, attacking. It must bo clear in Tokio today, if it was not a year ago, that a Soviet-Japanese war would not necessarily cml with a Japanese victory. >It could conceivably end with a Japanese defeat. It would in any event be,a protracted, expensive affair. The Soviet Union is not the Russia of 1904. The Five-Year Plan has not been finished for -nothing. . . . The situation is full of dynamite. Certain elements 'in Japan openly strive to create a war atmosphere, and many Japanese feel that unless the offensivo begins in 1934, it will be too late; the U.S.S.R. will have become too powerful. Butt such persons' might ponder the question whether it is not too late already. But Mr. Fischer nevertheless' expresses the opinion that "the political connotations" of *M. Litvinoff's personal triumph in America- "have not been noted in Tokio." Less strangely, he mentions London as the other place in which Moscow suspects that the events of last year have not been fully appreciated. In M. Litvinoff's address to the Central Committee of the Soviet Union on December 29, he expressed the Union's desire to "maintain the same friendly relations with Great Britain as we have with other countries." He was surprised, he said, that "despite the well-known practical and common sense of the British, one still found among them Don Quixote

snipers and guerrilla warriors," whose aim slill was to undermine the mounting strength of the Soviet Union. Two items in our cabled reports from London and Tokio respectively during the last twenty-four hours suggest that whatever misunderstanding may have existed in either of those places regarding the significance of ■ Russia's new status has been cured by this time. Tokio sent us yesterday by far the best news that we have had from Japan for a very long, time. Mr. Hirota, the Foreign Minister, had told the Lower House Committee that the Japanese Government did not entertain the slightest anxiety regarding the Singapore Base, the necessity for.which would disappear when Far Eastern peace, was firmly established^ The Anglo-Japanpse alliance had lapsed, but its spirit mutually remained. It was not in this tone that General Ariki used to talk of Anglo-Japanese relations.. It was not in this tone that the. Japanese Press was speaking of! the Singapore Base itself a few weeks ago, and had for months been speaking of Japan's former ally. The kind words of her Foreign Minister present a cheerful contrast to the hatred and contempt for Britain with'which !he'r Press .appears to have been seething ever • since , her Withdrawal, .v-from the , League: of Nations. ""If it would be absurd to accept these words as, indicating a change of heart, there is certainly no reason for dismissing them as mere hypocrisy. .But it may not be unreasonable to regard them as indicating that, after driving Russia into the arms of the United States, Japan is beginning to see that it may be just as well not to provoke a quarrel j with Britain at the same time. To the far more important news from London we can make but the briefest reference. We have it from two sources that Russia, regarding her military position in the Far East as sufficiently secure, has now energy to spare for the affairs of Europe, and that France is looking to her for the out-and-out support against Germany which she has been unable to obtain from Britain. The ambition of the last of the Kaisers sealed the doom of Germany by compelling Fiance and Russia to unite in selfprotection. After helping her to a partial recovery the ambition of Herr Hitler may overreach itself in the same way.