Evening Post. FRIDAY, AUGUST 25, 1933. A SEA OF TROUBLE

Evening Post, Volume CXVI, Issue 48, 25 August 1933, Page 6

Evening Post. FRIDAY, AUGUST 25, 1933. A SEA OF TROUBLE

In the fine translation of the Odyssey which is the latest freak of Colonel Lawrence, formerly of Arabia but now of address unknown, under his principal alias of T. E. Shaw, the words with which Poseidon exults over the hero struggling with ihe waves after the wreck of his raft admit of a painfully up-to-date application. The proud Earthshalter saw him, wagged his head and gloated to himself:, "Everywhere in trouble —all.over the seas, wherever you go! " From Ireland to Irak, from China to Cuba, from Berlin to Banff, the newspaper reader, confronted with the same monotonous story in all parts of the world, may well exclaim with the Earthshaker, "Everywhere in trouble, all over the seas"—and all over the lands too—"wherever you go!" But the exultation with which the vengeful deity was able to contemplate the sufferings of his victim has no place in the modern parallel. We may have all been making our several contributions to the storm, but they have been unconscious, and we realise only too keenly that our place is with the much-enduring Odysseus, and not with his persecutor. Even the least imaginative of us can surely understand by this time that we are all plunged in the raging main—or, as he may prefer to express it, we are all in the soup—together. Let us hope that it is so, for a complete appreciation of the fact may well be the beginning of wisdom.

It is from Banff that two of the latest shocks to our, complacency have come. The delegates to the Pacific Relations Conference have not considered it their duty to confine themselves to the speaking of smooth things and the prophesying of deceits. They have preferred to face the facts and to tell the truth. It was disturbing to read yesterday that "the policy of drift in the Pacific would lead inevitably to world calamity." Under the comfortable and pusillanimous doctrine that British interests in the Pacific and the very existence of New Zealand could be safely entrusted to the League of Nations and the chapter of accidents we have drifted to the vergei.of disaster. . The efficacy of those defences has been proved by what has happened to China during the last two years, and Australia and New Zealand must share the same fate if they do not wake up in time. In view of the general weakening of the Empire's naval power, and of its perilous weakness in the Pacific, the forecast of the Conference which was reported yesterday might be regarded as a reprieve rather than a threat. The great smash, it was said, might come in ten, twenty, or fifty years, but would certainly come, if remedies were not found for a situation in which there was clashing on nearly half a dozen, fundamental points. It is remarkable that the ten-year period which this estimate allows us before the great smash comes in die Pacific coincides with that for which the Four-Power Pact is supposed to have postponed what many high authorities consider to be the equally inevitable crash in Europe. But for the Pacific the round figure may be considered to represent little more than a conjecture, and the wholesale fashion in which Germany continues to violate her other international obligations leaves no excuse for supposing that, if she feels strong enough to break the Four-Power Pact, she will treat it with any j greater respect. Even if the ten-year j period could be regarded as having any semblance.of accuracy in either case, it may be accepted as virtually j certain that the anticipation of the period in the one case would produce a similar result in the other. A war in the Pacific in, say, five years' j time would give Germany her chance | if she was strong, enough to seize! it, or if she was not Poland might welcome the opportunity. Conversely, a war in Europe might be equally welcome to Japan if she | cannot be diverted from the course on which she made her disastrously successful start at Mukden two years ago. Grealt as the risks are and ominous as are the auspices of its inauguration, the Four-Power Pact undoubtedly holds out the hope of a far better security 'for the peace of Europe than the League of Nations, and if the conciliatory and constructive spirit which is being displayed at Banff can be imparted to the statesmen of the countries represented, some analogous scheme may yet be evolved to make good the failure of the League in the Far East.

The other shock that we received from Banff yesterday was of a milder character. Very cheerful reports have recently reached iis from the United States of the rapid progress that. President Roosevelt is making with his National Industrial Recovery programme and of the high hopes with which the opening of the house-to-house and store-to-store canvass on Monday is being awaited. But a sobering contrast is presented by the criticism to which the President's policy has been subjected in a paper read before the Pacific Relations Conference by Mr. T. E. Gregory, the Professor of Banking in the University of London. This eminent authority lakes a less favourable view of the prospects of the scheme than ■ Sir

fosiah Stamp and other distinguished British economists have taken, and he foresees very serious reactions on the finances of other countries if the United States should be compelled to reduce the value of the dollar in terms of gold. Professor Gregory's conclusions will doubtless be very keenly canvassed both at the Conference and elsewhere, but on one point there is likely to be little disIsent. The course of financial and trndo events in the whole world in the next four months is likely, lie says, to l>u dependent upon the action taken by | the United States in respect of (lit) National Recovery Act. For good or for evil President ] Roosevelt and his countrymen have ( the fortunes of the world in their j hands, and self-interest compels usj all to wish them luck.