Evening Post. MONDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 1930. THE FRENCH DEMANDS

Evening Post, Volume CIX, Issue 46, 24 February 1930, Page 8

Evening Post. MONDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 1930. THE FRENCH DEMANDS

Mr. John Buclian, who was lecturing a few months ago on the influence of. accident in, history, may.be able to find another striking illustration in the world-wide consequences that may arise from the defeat of the French Government on a domestic issue by the narrowest possible margin. It.was by a majority, not of five; as originally reported, but of one, that M. Tardieu was defeated, and it happened while he and M. Briand, whose votes would have averted the defeat, were serving their country at the London Conference. In* such-circumstances the moral weight of a defeat by a single vote is very small, yet it has sufficed to give the caleidoscope of French politics another violent shake and to aggravate the already grievous embarrassments of,the Conference, with results in both cases that defy calculation. If the adverse majority had been a hundred instead of one the effect upon M. Tardieu could not have been imore pleasing to his enemies who had fluked this entirely inglorious victory behind his back. Like the victims of a U-boat, he'has "sunk without a trace," but, unlike them, he seems almost to have welcomed his fate. ' There is at any rate no evidence of regret or of any very determined attempt either to reverse the decision or to escape its effects by a, compromise. Almost immediately after his return to Paris we were informed that ,

M. Tardieu has refused to re-form his Cabinet or to return to the London Conference.

In so far as the details since supplied have carried us any further than tins curt message, it is in the wrong direction. To his refusal to form a new Cabinet M. Tardieu has since added the refusal to join the Cabinet of the man for whom he

advised the President to send, and he ik still as curt as ever. He is not a member of the Chautemps Cabinet because "events did not permit of collaboration."

This complete disappearance of M. Tardieu from the Naval Conference in circumstances which suggest that he is glad to go seems the more ominous by reason of the contrast with the high hopes which he brought with'him to London. In view of the origin of the Conference Mr. Mac Donald's conversations' with President Hoover, the optimism displayed by; Mr. Mac Donald himself and Mr. Stimson at its. opening meetings was inevitable, but just for the same reason ; it was.natural to expect some coolness on the part of the sensitive nation which deeply resented the British Government's abandonment of the Entente Cordiale and suspected it of a desire to establish an Anglo-American domination" in its place. It was for that reason, even more than for the eloquence in which-the Latin races are so far ahead of the phlegmatic British stock, that the vote of goodwill and confidence in M. Tardieu's speech at the Guildhall Banquet made it the most , auspicious <of those early utterances. ..

Tho City of London, he said, now welcomes us, realising that when it comes on organising peace in far lands and among different races Great Britain can claim to have played the finest role that human genius could conceive. The rivalries of the past, sustained as they were with credit by all, will give way to new ideas in the future. We must have long vision. Our difficulties are rather in our habits of thought than in the questions themselves.

It, was an admirable appeal, but when his programme came along it showed that this ungracious pastor ihad "recked not his own rede." No long vision, no change in the old habits of thought, no trace of the Locarno spirit, were revealed in the French memorandum, and the manner in which M. Tardieu cut inquiry short at the Press Conference with the words, "No questions asked, no questions answered," and a rapid retreat before a question could be put, suggests that.he realised that the inconsistency provided material for an awkward cross-examination. His refusal to return to the Conference protects him from any renewal of the trouble, but it is a very unpleasant legacy that he leaves for his successor. V

Fortunately for the chances of the Conference, M. Tardieu's successor as the head of the French delegation is the very man that the Conference itself would have chosen. With Dr. Slresemann and Sir Austen Chamberlain, M. Briand shared the honours of Locarno, and there have been few crises, domestic, or foreign, during the last ten years in which he has not played an important, and usually a moderating and conciliatory, part. No less than twelve times has he been Prime Minister, but how often he has had charge of the Foreign Office, where his greatest work has been done, we have not attempted to count. As Foreign Minister again he will return to the Conference as the leading French delegate, for in the absence of any negative words we do not take to-day's report of M. $arraut's appointment to the delegation as meaning that he displaces M. Briand from

the leading position which was previously understood to be assigned to him. Except when the Premier himself attends an international gather-, ing, the Foreign Minister has almost an ex officio right to this position, and M. Briand is the lastVian in France who could be asked to forego it in favour of any other Minister. The fact that he has been M. Tardieu's colleague at the Conference, from the beginning may be considered to put this point beyond a doubt. As we were told on Saturday, M. Briand's return "will not mean a new beginning, but a resumption of the threads of last week's discussion."

With so suave and conciliatory a diplomat at the head of the French delegation, one may be sure that whatever can be done to moderate the stiffness of the' French demands in the interests of a general settlement will be done, but it is to be feared that his instructions will allow little scope for his powers of accommodation. The 'Chaulemps Government seems to be, in complete agreement with its predecessor in its determination to make France a first-class naval Power unless the Locarno principle which secures her position on the Rhine by an international guarantee can be extended to the Mediterranean. Not one party or newspaper in.France has ventured to- suggest a wateringdown of the Trench demands, which, therefore, will again be the pivot upon which tho deliberations will'turn with thp will-o '-thc-wisp guarantee idea dancing in the background.

Here is a great chance for Uncle Sam, but he is not eager to ytake it. The French themselves may well dismiss asa will-o'-the-wisp,the nearest approach1 to a guarantee that is suggested as compatible with the American dread of "European entanglements":—

A highly-placed personage associated with the American Delegation, while unequivocally rejecting the idea of signing any pact' for Mediterranean security, said that tho idea of a consultative agreement, not ■ implying obligation of action, would possibly be discussed by America, if it would in aiiy way help Franco to make more moderate claims. This could tako..the form of an addendum to the Kellogg' Pact. ' ; - " , ' -.