EMPTY LANDS

Evening Post, Volume LXXXV, Issue 29, 4 February 1913, Page 4

EMPTY LANDS

PEOPLE FOR PUMICE PLAINS ROOM FOR FIFTEEN THOUSAND ON THE SOIL RIVAL RAILWAY ROUTES, (By Our Special Reporter.) No. IV. In the last article the productive capacity of the pumice plains, attainable by cultivation, was dealt with. It is now time to consider the population that could be carried were tHese now almost empty lands linked up with the railway system. A railway is required not' only in order to provide cheap carriage for the essential manures, but to carry the resultant produce out. Without r a railway, fat lambs cannot • advantageously be sent to market, and it is equally obvious that Tail communication is necessary to dairy farming development. Although we cannot foresee to ( what extent dairying will 6btain, it "is clear, even on ascertained data, that the neglected pumice plains will carry, to use Mr. Massey't phrase, "a tremendous population." Taking the maximum of the figures sflg-* gested in the last article as a living area —that is, 800 acres-~and taking Mt. Clifton's estimate that two-thirds of the total area may be' profitably occupied, a calculation even on this conservative basis shows remafkable Jesuits. It is estimated by.'Jhe Taup,o Totara Timber Company that its Mokai line, when extended" twenty miles to Taupcy-will serve 2,000,000 acres of undeveloped land, now practically waste. Two- thirds of this area, on the basis of a living holding of 800»aetes, would auppdrt, Iff6B afittlergj or, allowing five to a family, '$330 .nelsons on the.-soil. But' the pumice lands are estimated to comgfise well' q)#r? fbtif million acres, or more 'than twice the area calculated on by /the , company.. If success attended the Mokai undertaking, the development of other pumice lands, probably by Tailways from Rotorua and the Mam Trunk, perhaps from Napier, would speedily follow ; and .the number of settlers and their dependents should thus be doubled. So it is not 'too much to expect that the exploitation, of the dormant citadel of I the Island, by railway and by plougn, I will create a populati6n of 15,000 to [ 20,000 people on the land itself, Apart j from those who will live by the' mci- ! dental industry created. INFLATION NOT WANTED. Another calculation, again . conducted on a minimum basis,' will be of interest. At the least, two-thirds of the pumice land may be expected to become one-sheep-to-the-acre country ; the general estimate is one and a-half sheep.' A fair value of one-sheep land ia £5 an acre. Two-thirds of two million acres would thus he worth £6,000,000 5 and if the calculation be. made on th,'e basis of four million acres, the value becomes £12,000,000. That is to say, a producing and improving asset worth twelve million .sterling is substituted for an uhproduc tive one of nominal value. Of course, if the promised success is attained, £5 an acre will really be a bedrock price. Some, settler s are taking up land at 30s, an acre, and their cost of breaking it in' may reach £3 10s ap a,cre, which would total the £5 right away. It is to be hoped that the prairie values will not become unduly inflated. A rush ,f or the^ "ifluleVeloped "land, forcing it to "fictitious' prices, would *be the' very worst thing for th© district, * and, it/ ■ is "thep)AßM|B!jof , : the Prime y 'M f in{ster, anct? it jsK>ullPj|shk wish of everyone, to avert such an iU*fcbnsequence. There. is immense elbow-room in the Taupo steppes ; and while success throughout the country generally is, probable, it* is not certain.- .What is wanted, is farmers who ' com© to wqrk< the soil,, not men who buy in order to sell. With regard to the Taupo Totara Timber Company's original proposal (not pressed) that the Government should allow the company to buy 200,000 acres I of land from the Maoris, to recoup its.expenditure on the Mokai-Taupo line, Mr F. G. DaMell (chairman of directors) thought that 7s 6d to 10s an acre would be a fair price to pay the Natives; that another 10s an acre should be expended in cutting up and selling, and that an, average profit should be made of 7s 6d to 10s an acre. That would give the settler .his land at 25s ,t0,30s .with the cost of Jsreaking-in still in front of him.' . • • In the 'present circumstances, it is tfard to see why average unbroken pumice country should exceed 30s an -acre, and probably 20s to 25s would be a safer price. Increment will come readily enough if the breaking-in is properly done, and if there is reasonable access to a railway. MOKAI AND ROTORUA ROUTES.' The possibilities of the pumice plains —conditional upon railway access — having been* demonstrated, the question of , the method and route of the rail connection presents itself; and here arises the conflict between the Rptorua Chamber of 'Commerce and the t3Caupol Totara Timber Company. Any attempt to deal exhaustively with the arguments as to the rival resources -of the two routes would iill a- volume. That, how.ever, is not necessary. V The' case realty turns on two preliminary points — money and time. To extend, the .company's light railway from Mokai to Taupo (twenty miles) would be so much cheaper and more expeditious than to extend the State standard railway from Hb terminus j at Rotorua to Taupo (flftysix. niiles) j that any Government might well be loth to" block the* Mokai scheme, provided the company 'fl offer is" a fair one to the State. That offer will be. explained in the concluding article. If' it is found to be in the public interest, then the Government has to face the position' of either accepting the proffered service— with due safeguards— or of providing, with promptitude, an equal one. If the Government wtife to reject bpth courses and do nothing, would it not be open to be charged that— in! <ihe recent phrase of the Minister for Public Worts — it was acting like "the dog in the. manger",? THE PREDOMINANT FACTOR. If there were no light* line branching off from the State standard railway at Putaruru. and running ■ south to Mokai, no doubt Rotorua would sway the 'issue. But in that case Rotorua' might possibly not be anxious to extend, its . railway, to Tauno ; for, in a tourist town, td be a terminus has its advantages. When, however, the Taupo Totara Timber Company launched its branch enterprise, and in its searchings ( after dearly-bought totara wandered withib 1 'twenty miles of Taupo, while Rotorua was still 56 miles from that great central lake, -a new and predominant factor . was created. .It Is only natural thair thi& company, "having lost its, ordinary capital in profitless timber-getting^ and. .having, the prospect of finding its , railway a., valueless asset after its timner is cut 'dut • in 15' or 18 years,- should •> seek to give-'' the line a permanent value by ' |juphing> it through to Taupo and thus 'creating' a new ' passenger and goods traffic. It is equally natural that Rotorua, recognising the possibility of its being left on a dead end — tHat is, Jiassed,;. by by tourists who go direct to- Taupo— should develop a remarkable enthusiasm for direct connection itself. The test, however, is not what Rotorua' wantß nor what tire company wants, but what . will give the cheapest and quickest practical access to the fi<* z «\

land's biggest interest is conversion of the waste asset, a great deal of which is rabbit'affected Crown land. After dropping several demands, including the 200,000-acre land block, <the company, bidding high for Government support, has narrowed its offer to a basis that seems to be peculiarly favourable to the State, and it says now that, given a Government guarantee up to £50,000 (not a penny in cash), it will complete the line in twelve months. Even if the Prime Minister' were to concentrate on j the Rotorua-Waiotapu-Taupo extension the whole of his Public Works Fund, the work, which is estimated to cost £8000 a mile, would take years, and ! everyone knows that Mr. Massey would •do no such thing. It is extremely doubtful whether, in the present financial conditions, he would start the line at all. According to the evidence of the Engineer-in-Chief , Mr R. . W. Holmes,, j the rate of progress would, in the ordinary course, be about five miles a year ; so the 56 miles would take 11 years ! No wonder that Taupo stretches out its hand to Mokai and refuses to regard the Rotorua connection as other than a pious hope. ULTIMATE CONNECTION WITH TAURANGA. Under present arrangements, Auckland is the Tailway port for both Rotorua and Taupo. Rotorua has criticised the Puta-ruru-Mokai route to Taupo because of the cost of haulage over tht/ big nill at Oruanui. It does not, however, appear that Oruanui will be any higher than the Mamaku Hill, which must be traversed to teach Rotorua, though- the Pularutu deviation, avoids it. So in' that respect both routes would seem to be \n a J * similar plight. Now a railway connecting Rotorua with Taupo via Waiotapu, and also connecting Rolorua with Tau- ] ranga, would avoid both these hills, and ] would give the pumice country a wellgraded line to the nearest deep-water port, Tauranga, on the Bay of Plenty, instead of to Auckland. Tauranga, Ho doubt, will one day be the permanent outlet, but that means /linety miles of new railway which, at five miles a year, would take eighteen years to complete. Yet Mr. J. R. Raw, representing the Rotorua Chamber of Ooihmerce before •the Parliamentary Committee last session, expressed the opinion that the Roto-rua-Tauranga line should be commenced before the Rotorua-Taupo line. Imagine the feelings of the Taupo people when they read this. There is another branch .to Rptorua's case, and that is' that a ' Kghfc l{n# to Taupo, via Waiotapu, might be constructed more cheaply and expeditiously than a standard 'line, and that, if the Government has .not the money, it should give the Rotorua people some concession to enable them to raise .private capital for the work. Assuming the concession and assuming the raising of the capital, Rotorua's" light line' would still be "not in the race" (literally) with the Mokai extension; and a concession to pne 6et of capitalists would be neither worse nor better than a concession to another set ; and if the conditions of the Rotorua concession were made as drastic as these that the Taupo Company says it will accept, one has doubts as to where, in the former case, the money will come from. Anyway, the , Mokai concession does not exclude another at Rotorua. Each of these railways* would have its own sphere. It ie true that, as regards the Taupo connection, the Mokai line would "get in first/ 1 But this arises from the' inherent facts of the situation, which nobody can alter. ' Provided the access is given on terms satisfactory to State and public, time is still the essence of the, conttact.