OVERSEAS TRADE RETURNS

Dominion, Volume 37, Issue 224, 19 June 1944, Page 4

OVERSEAS TRADE RETURNS

Heavy fluctuations in the returns relating to the overseas trade of the Dominion illustrate the disturbing effects of wartime conditions. Many of them were inescapable, but some are clearly attributable to the methods adopted in the preparation of the returns. The outstanding instance is in connexion with the import figures. According to the latest statement issued imports in April showed a drop of over £5,000,000 when compared with the corresponding month of 1943, but for the first ten months of the production year they showed an increase of about £18,500,000. The only explanation offered is that the import totals now include “defence materials and equipment, also lend-lease supplies.” It has not yet been determined on what basis the settlement of lend-lease transactions shall be made, but the .Minister of Finance has said that there is no provision in the American Act for payment to be made for the good’s. , In those circumstances it would be reasonable for the total value of the transactions represented by imports under lend-lease provisions to be shown in the returns as contingent liabilities. As things now are they make it appear that the Dofninion, instead of having an excess of exports, has a heavy adverse balance. In its annual review of finance and trade for 1943 the London Economist, referring to New Zealand, said: “Taking the years ending September 30, in 1942 the excess of exports was £30.72 million, while 1943 imports exceeded exports by £24.06 million.” That represented an adverse movement of nearly £55,000,000 in a very short period, but, although the figures were no doubt in accordance with the official returns, it could not be contended that they presented a correct picture of the position. Die London journal went on to stress the fact that “despite the markedly adverse balance of trade, the movements of exchange funds held overseas by all the banks, give no indication of any large movement in the balance- of payments.” Movements which, in the first ten months of the respective vears, have lifted our imports from £40,749,000 in 1941-42 to £75,179,000 in the current production year have not been reflected in our overseas balances. This, of course, leads to quite unnecessary confusion and misunderstanding, due to the changed method of presenting these statistics. In other respects, too. the trade returns do not afford the basis of comparison which formerly made them important, lhe run of shipping probably now has a much greater effect on the aggregates, but with so much of the exports paid for prior to shipment the financial position is changed. Ihe truly amazing thing is that in the fifth year of a world war the British authorities who control shipping should have been able to lift produce to the value of nearly £63,000,000 in the first ten months of the 1943-44 production year, from a country necessitating the longest voyages of any. It remains to be seen whether the creation of the vast armada of merchant shipping to ensure supplies for the forces now fighting in Normandy will necessitate any temporary interruption, or marked restriction, of the shipping facilities we have enjoyed. At first glance that might appear to be inevitable, but it must be borne in mind that these stiiring developments in the Allied plans themselves create an ever greater need for exactly the supplies which the Dominion can provide.