NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE BIRTH-RATE

Dominion, Volume 33, Issue 188, 6 May 1940, Page 8

NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE BIRTH-RATE

Renewed attention to the problem of New Zealand’s declining birth-rate has been drawn by the Commerce Journal. In an article, part of which was reprinted last week, the point was made that the Centennial year marked the ‘'emergence of a condition whereby the retrogression of New Zealand’s European population should be imminent,” In other words, we are near a point at which the birthrate decline, if not arrested, will bring about a gradually decreasing population. It is a serious prospect, and one which is particularly illfavoured at a time of Centennial celebration and amid the emeigency of war with its heavy calls on the national man-power for defence. , Arresting comparisons have been prepared by the Birth-rate Committee of the New Zealand Five Million Club, in the recently published booklet, After the First Hundred Years. In addition to pointing out that the crude birth-rate of this country has declined from 31.22 in 1888 to approximately 17.93 in 1938, the committee has made the

The significant figures arc those in the third column. With the past growth of population, naturally and by immigration, the total numbet of births each year has, of course, increased. What is more, the decline in infant mortality (an achievement of which this country may be justly proud) has helped to better the position. the increase and the economy of life have not been enough. They do not make up for the fact that births at the rate of 136.6 for every thousand married women will very soon be overtaken by the death-rate. Meanwhile another disturbing process is taking place. The decline of the birth-rate is producing a population in which the piopoitioti of bread-winenrs and producers of national wealth is becoming less and the proportion of people at or approaching retiring age is becoming larger. In 1881, approximately 39 per cent, of the male population consisted of boys up to 14 years of age, 47.5 per cent, repicsented the 15 to 44 age group, and 13.5 per cent, the men of 45 yeais of age and over. In 1938 only 25 per cent, of the males in this country were boys up to 14'years of age, 47 per cent, represented the 14 to 44 age group, and the men of 45 and more 28 per cent, of the population. In other words, between 1881 and 1938 the percentage of male children has declined to nearly half and the peicentage of men from middle to old age had more than doubled. Such figures present knotty future problems in production and in social .welfare. Obviously, an ageing population means a gradually declining productive capacity, together with an increasing load of superannuation and pension payments to be borne by the smaller group of producers and wage-earners. . . In overseas countries the problem (which is almost world-wide among civilized peoples) has been investigated and attacked w’ith educational propaganda and legislation designed to favour fami y increases. Similar steps must be taken sooner or later in New Zealand if our national identity is to be preserved.

following comparison: Number of Legitimate Year. Number of LegiBirths per 1000 timate Births. Married Women. 1878 17,341 340 1891 17,635 279.2 1906 .. 28,120 235.3 1921 27,309 381.(5 1936 23,711 136.6