RANDOM NOTES

Dominion, Volume 32, Issue 150, 21 March 1939, Page 8

RANDOM NOTES

Sidelights On Current Events (By Kickshaws). The German authorities claim that Chamberlain has a one-track mind. Well, anyw.ay, just at the moment it is better than a side-track mind.

It may be correct that an oak tree adds 1000 dollars to the value of a section in America, for it is certainly a fact that at times a few old chestnuts are capable of working wonders anywhere.

Prejudice against women in the field of geology is stated to be breaking down. Where stony silences are involved, women have always led the way.

“Would you please inform us of the answer to the old sum re the blacksmith shoeing the horse (starting with id. on first and doubling up on each nail) ? Is the answer the result of final sum of doubling up or the total of the various amounts added together?” says “Diet Hughie.” [The problem, usually, is stated as follows: —How much would it cost to shoe a horse with 32 nails, beginning at Jd. and doubling for each successive nail? Thus, the second nail would cost 4d., the third Id., and so on. After working out the cost of each nail, one adds up the cost of all the nails in order to obtain the total cost. There are many simple methods of arriving at the answer. Those who have neither the time nor the inclination to work out the answer may care to know that the total cost amounts to £4,473,924/5/3s. It is the last few nails that add greatly to the cost. The .cost of the 32nd nail, actually, is £2,236,962/2/B.]

Reiclisbauk officials, it is stated, have informed) Hitler that the German nation is at the end of its tether from a financial point of view. “We ■have reached the end: of our stock of currency. Imports.are almost double the exports. The taxation limit has been reached.” In short that is a roundabout way of telling Hitler that Germany is bankrupt. This 1 fact will not cause very much concern because ‘Germany has been in this condition for the last 25 years. Nevertheless, it seems strange that a bankrupt country can cause sp much trouble. The mere fact that a country is bankrupt must not be taken to indicate that the country in question cannot run a very expensive war. There is a difference between commercial bankruptcy and military impotency. Indeed, it has occurred before now that a country provokes war because it is bankrupt. There is little to lose and everything to gain by doing so.

When war broke out in 1914 it was the almost unanimous belief of thinking persons that war could not last many months owing to the tremendous cost of waging a modern war. We are wiser now. The war that started in 1914 lasted until 1918 and. cost £50,000,000,000. Every one of thp combatants got into financial difficulties, but none of them was handicapped so greatly that it made war impossible. It would therefore be most unwise to state that because Germany is bankrupt from a commercial point of view she will be deterred from provoking and waging war on account of financial stringency. One can well wonder how bankrupt countries manage to afford the luxury of expensive wars. There are, however, many subtle reasons why a nation on a war footing can do things which are out of the question under peace conditions of a normal commercial type. Money after all is a secondary consideration to food. Supply a nation with food and it will work; especially under the spur of fear whipped up by propaganda.

It must be agreed that a modern war involves heavy costs in men and materials. The cost of the men is the least part of the problem. Men and their families have to be fed and clothed in times of peace as well as in war. The difference in the cost to a nation i s the difference in the better food ana the better or more clothes required in war-time. Armies still march on their stomachs and in the best woollen underwear. The call to arms reduces the ability of a country to supply food and clothes. However, it has been proved that female labour, well organized, is well able to step into the breach. If the maintenance of troops were the only consideration of modern -war, Germany could wage war indefinitely. The greatest proportion of the cost of a war goes not in men, but in materials. These cover every commercial phase of peace-time. Metals and textiles include the greatest bulk of the materials.

Materials, it is agreed by experts, are the costliest part of a modern war. Moreover, the organization of the supply of these materials is as important as the mobilization and organization of the armies. The complication is that the resources of capital and labour must be diverted from creative peacetime work to that of making munitions of no particular value, except for their own special purpose. The first problem is, therefore, to divert the normal demands of capital and labour so that this adjustment may be . made. The task of any country, bankrupt or otherwise, which provokes war, is to transfer the resources of the country from a peaceful footing to war output. The economic loss is observed in the lessened output of goods for sale and consumption. A simple way for a bankrupt nation to make this change is to inflate. The Government creates new money which is injected into the currency system. Booming munition trades attract money and labour at the expense of real trade. Germany has been on this footing for many years, and the very fact that she is bankrupt commercially has made the task, if anything, simpler.

A nation, bankrupt or otherwise, which changes from a peaceful footing to a war footing by inflation must be prepared for the consequences. The change-over means greater taxation. Germany has largely chosen a mixture of the two. Borrowing money is out of the question from outside sources for a bankrupt country. Borrowing money inside a country is the same as inflation. Nevertheless, Germany has had to import most of the textiles required for the war footing on which she has been for the last two years. A great deal of her iron has come from outside and almost all her non-ferrous metals. She has created a huge stock of these metals. The totals are well known to authorities in the democratic countries, and they know exactly how long the stocks can be expected to last. It is that, not the money question, which fixes the length of a war. It is almost a certainty that Germany would have gxtreme difficulty in getting from outside sources further supplies of raw materials in the event of war. Her allies, Italy, franco and possibly Japan would merely increase the problem from this aspect. Meanwhile, we may rest assured that commercial bankruptcy will have no effect in preventing war. Availability of supplies will have that effect. Roosevelt holds the Jrey.