THE PACIFIC

Dominion, Volume 14, Issue 242, 7 July 1921, Page 5

THE PACIFIC

IN THE NEXT WAR. There was a fair attendance last night at the Wellington United Services Officers’ Club when Dr. Guy H. Scholefield lectured on the Pacific from the point of view of possible hostilities. Colonel R. St. J. Beere presided, and amongst those present were Major-General Sir Robin, Colonel It. B. Smythe, and others of the New Zealand Staff ■ Corps and of garrison units. Dr. Scholefield stated that it was a great advantage to the Dominions in the Pacific that Imperial statesmen as well as their own were of opinion that the next great war would be in the Pacific. If British statesmen and people had really understood where their great war was to be fought they would have been in a greatly different position when it broke out. The Pacific problem was really an economic one, due to the meeting in this ocean of two great waves of humanity. The Anglo-Saxon wave, highly civilised and expensive living, moved slowly westward across America in search of loom. From the opposite i direction vastly greater masses of Asiatics, in a low state of civilisation, according to our standards, and very cheap living, tended to expand into the sparsely-populated countries bordering on the Pacific Ocean, and held for the most part by Anglt<Sa»nns. The. densities of population were 2.3 and 1.6 in the Western States of America and in Western Canada, 11 per mile in New Zea’and, and 1.6 per mile in Australia. The refusal of the. Dominions to permit this infusion of Asiatic blood into their lands was the main difficulty confronting the British Empire. England herself did not fee! the problem, but loyally stood t>y the Dominions in their opposition to the movement. Was it fair in these circumstances to expect England to bear the bulk of the expense of the Navy and Army which this policy required? It was practically certain now that the Japanese Alliance would be renewed. Japan, as the only Asiatic nation which had developed political organisations, was the spear-point of the Asiatic peril. The renewal of the treaty, since there was now no question of the Empire being dragged into war against America, was an advantage to the British Empire, as otherwise Japan would naturally adopt a more aggressive attitude in her warlike preparations, and we were not prepared to keep pace at present. The renewal postponed the time when wo might fear a Japanese attack on British possessions, and on the other hand it assured Japan some sort of understanding as to her own field of expansion in Asia. The effect of refusing that room bad been to drive the Japanese eastward into the Pacific. The renewal of the alliance would have a great influence on British I policy in the future. By the time the term expired India would be well advanced in nationalism, and it would then be a serious matter for the British Empire to come into conflict with an Asiatio Power. Indian opinion would have to be considered. The renewal of the treaty would probably result in Britain and America co-operating to persuade the Japanese to be a little more moral in tbeir dealings with China.

Coming to strategic considerations, the lecturer pointed out that America had in Hawaii, Guam and Manila three very effective stepping-stones to Asia- She would fight from her position in the Philippines. Japan had also steppingstones to America —the Bonin Islands, which she had fortified quite legitimately—the mandatory positions at Pelew and Wotje. These would enable her te threaten the communications from San Francisco and Panama, by which vast quantities of munitions, supplies, and oil would have to be mo.ved as well as troops. The Tact that three-fifths of the population of Hawaii were Asiatics also weakened the American position there. Hawaii, Guam, and Manila were nil strongly fortified by the United States. lie thought it very unlikely that the mandatory islands north of the equator had been fortified by Japan. But they were a strong Japanese position, inasmuch as they would possess actual colonies of Japanese instead ol merely a few administrators, officiate and engineers. That was the comparative weakness of our position south of the line. America was quite at liberty to fortify all the islands she possessed, nnd she had done so. The position of Japan at Pelew enabled her to command the entrance io the San Bernardino Straits in the Philippines, the only passage which traffic could safely use in war time. The position at Wo tie came 400 miles nearer do the traffic route from Honolulu to Guam. Besides the stream of munitions and supplies through Pamana from the United States and England it would Ive. necessary to protect coal supplies and foodstuffs going to the area of operations from Australia end New Zealand, oil from the East Indies, and supplies and transports coming through the Straits of Malacca. That duty and the necessity for controlling the populations of India and th" Straits would require a strong naval force at Singapore, with probably the battle fleet at a much advanced position, say, Hong-Kong of Manila. A great deal of commerce raiding would have to 'be expected where the multitude of islands gave such good hidingplaces. America in case of wnr w'uld have to make the Philippines thoroughly secure. Tho Philippines, resenting Aotoijwan rule and openly desiring independence. would be a tho*n in the side of the Americans, and a ready tool in tho hands of Japan. America alone would have a tremendous task to prevent Japan by force of arms from doing what slm wished in Asia. The renewal of the Japanese Treaty wo<ld probably give Japan a, few more vears of tutelage in her conduct towards China. The native races of the islands would be of little use for military' purposes and the islands themselves would furnish little fond except for native levies. Tie strongly advised the <»efence authorities to see that a certain number of officers aualified in the languages of the Pacific, particularly Japanese, Chinese, and pidgin English. There was considerable discussion on the paper, and a vote of thanks was accorded the lectarer on the motion. of General Robiu.