The Dominion. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 1920. IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Dominion, Volume 14, Issue 79, 28 December 1920, Page 4

The Dominion. TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 1920. IN THE MIDDLE EAST

An official statement made some weeks ago showed that tho British Government was then spending in the aggregate two and a half millions sterling per month on its operations against tribal insurgents in Mesopotamia and in maintaining a small force to oppose the invasion of North-west Persia by the Russian Bolsheviki. llecent _ cablegrams relating to Mesopotamia suggest in themselves that this heavy outlay will now be cut down rapidly, and that Britain, as. the mandatory Power, will be able to proceed with the establishment of an Arab Government. One of yesterday's cablegrams, summarising a White Paper, quoted Sir Percy Uox (High Commissioner for Mesopotamia) as stating: that Arabs in tho areas recently disturbed had resumed their peaceful avocations, and that the; Council of State had appointed an • expert committee to draft a scheme for' the organisation of local forces 1 to rcplace the British army of' ' -occupation. This Bcoms promising as far as it goes, but it has yet to be seen how far the much less settled conditions disclosed in Persia arc destined to reflect on Mesopotamia and impede the policy of making the Arabs as nearly as possible masters of their own affairs. Speaking at Basra some time ago, Silt Percy Cox said that he was about to form "a fully Arab Government with British assistance," but he added that "there was no intention on th& part of His Majesty's Government to abandon Mesopotamia to the anarchy which must ensue if we evacuated it." Apparently, therefore, it will be some time yet before'the state of affairs is reached which Mr. Lloyd George envisaged some months ago when he said that as soon as a new [Arab] Government was established expenditure would decrease and tho military forces would become negligible. The immediate prospect hefore Great Britain is that of supporting a more or less . instable Arab Government in Mesopotamia —no doubt still at considerable the outlook is not improved by the far from satisfactory course events are taking in Persia. Although tho British Government has not explicitly declared that it intends to withdraw its remaining forccs from Persia, many rcccnt reports have declared that this step is imminent, and there'is some reasod to f/iar that the, result will be to lay Persia open to invasion by the Bolsheviki and ultimately to occasion new troubles in Mesopotamia. '•

It is fairly plain that the pacification of Mesopotamia and the maintenance of reasonably peaceful and secure conditions in Persia are really elements in one great problcm—a problem it is very desirablo to solve in the interests of general peace and as a contribution to tho security of the Indian Empire. It is very doubtful, however, whether Britain is in a position to carry the great responsibilities here implied in addition to those she has undertaken in regard to the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus. The attempt to maintain order in Mesopotamia in itself entails tremendous burdens, and those who aro familiar with the territory and its people are agreed that the establishment of a local representative Government will be a long and difficult process. An excellent idea of the difficulties to be overcome is given by Captain H. B. Usher, iri a recent contribution to the Fortnightly Review-. Mesopotamia, hf> reminds his readers, is only a nanus descriptive of an area of country which has no boundaries worthy of the name except the "Persian hilin on the cast, and no cohesive force, exccpt the two great rivers which run through it and give it its name —rivers which are not very efficient for transportation purposes. Tho total population, roughly estimated at 2,000,000, is scanty. If the inhabitants of Bagdad, Kut, Amara, and Basra be subtracted, the total for tie whole of the remainder of the country," extending along many hundreds of miles of both great rivcrsj remains very small indeed. The scanty population of the country, Captain Usijeb declares, lacks any sense of unity. '"The whole land is divided and cut up by religious and racial differences, warring upon itself if it be permitted. If there bo a general wish for independence, it must be a wish, not to ma.nage its own government so mtioh as to be free from government altogether." The tribal uprisings aga'inst which Britain has had to employ numerous 'Indian forces during a great part of the past year have made it fairly clear that, this picture is not overdrawn.

As to Persia, the British Foreign Secretary (Lonn Cuhzon) declared only a few months ago that thn British troops in North-wes't Persia were there

because their disappearance would simply open the door to invasion, partly by the Turks and partly by the Bolshevists, which would bring, in all probability, tho Persian Government to the ground, and would destroy almost in e. breath the whole policy which wo have bc-cn build-in? up in agreement with Persia in tho last few years, and which might recoil with very .serious menace on Mesopotamia

The policy to which Lord Curzon alluded is set out in ' the AngloPersian Agreement of August, 1919. This document provided "for tho supply by the British Govornmcnt of expert advisers for the Persian Government, for the supply of officers, munitions and equipment for a uniform force, to be created by the Persian Government; for the establishment and maintenance of order in the country and on its frontiers'; and for a loan of two millions sterling. In addition, the British Government agreed to cooperate with the Persian Government in the building of roads and railways throughout Persia." To withdraw from Persia at this stage would evidently be equivalent to allowing this Agreement to go by the board, and there is very little room for doubt about the serious consequcnces that would follow in Mesopotamia and elsewhere. Ty s attitude of successive Persian Governments shows that a majority of .the people look to Britain for protection, but there are minorities which liojne to advance their own ends by intriguing with the. Bolshevists. With the door of invasion opened to the Bolshevists, people of this typo may be able to do a great deal of harm, both in their own country and in stirring up new troubles in Mesopotamia, rile Bolshevists have already thrown Caucasia into a state of ohaos. With Porsin,

tljeir mercy and available as a convenient base from which to operate against Mesopotamia and elsewhere on the approaches to India, their power for harm -would be seriously extended. In her own interests, as well as out of consideration for the Persian people and tho Arabs of Mesopotamia, Britain _ has tho strongest reasons for doing everything she can to avert such developments, but present indications are that the mere magnitude of tho problem will compel her to limit the range of her protective and policing operations.