PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 12, Issue 33, 2 November 1918, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The capitulation" of Turkey con-, tributes in various ways to . that rapid clearing■• of the : war. outlook which is ihAv the order of the day. It finally settles lhc : account which was left open when' our own soldiers and others withdrew from Gallipoli after a long and heroic struggle •against impossible odds. It shatters German dreams of conquest and plunder in the East. In a very in.itdrial'degree- the ' elimination of Turkey from the ranks of the belligerents modifies the conditions of 'naval! warfare. iiHih.cMediterranean to the advantage of the Allies, and at the same time it releases not inconsiderable fpreps..for, service in European theatres.- . So far as the operations on land directly against Germany and Austria-arc concerned, •the conquest;of. Tu.rk-ey : ■• probably makes no- great difference at the present ste'ac.' "Tlie 'Allies 1 will'hardly neecf ; a ' bettor road into Austria l Hungary and through the territory .of- that Monarchy into Germany than they arc now opening through Serbia. The opening of the Black Sea is nevertheless of vital importance,' ■ as', 'it. bears both upon the further prosecution of the war and upon prospects of .enforcing a just .and stablb peace'.' As soon as they have, made an,end-.of German control of • the . Black Sea, the.- Allies will be able to cut.right across the routes'the enemy : 'has been opening ;int.o : Asia, indepcticlently of. Turkey, i and. .a 150... to, co-operate, .much more effectively than is possible at present with the forces of restoration in Russia

The. one important factor still to be reckoned with in gaining control of thc'Black Sea is the former Russian fleet which was surrendered to Germany-caply. this-ycar.-' "With the Gocbeny\tliis : fleet constitutes a- considerable .b&dy of n'alval; force. The Germans'', took'6vei".aij.least two Russian" ferxiathioiights .and about.half a • dozen•pre-Dreadrioughts -of- varying ages and fighting ■ power, • ■ together with a fairly strong destroyer and submarine, flotilla. With the exception of the Gocben, which is nominally a Turkish ship, the remnants of the Turkish Navy count for little, but with the .more: or less damaged GbebeiT the Germans are possessed in the Black Sea of a naval squadron- -which has --been ■ described as powci'ful though'- heterogeneous. '

■' ■■' ', .. '*..'.. . !f ?. !•'. : . .* ■ . ■ It-is to the presence of this squad-l'On.'-'ilr'-the Black , - Sea." that the report that ah'"' Allied' fleet passed through the Dardanelles on Thursday morning largely owes its interrest. "A'.free' passage, for the Allies through' tlie Bosphorus as well as through the Dardanelles is an item in the terms.impQsed on Turkey, and no doubt the German naval force in the Black .Sea will be attacked at short "notice"' if it waits to be attacked .The .enemy may,.. pilfer, to., surrender •or destroy his; stolen/, fleet rather than-.mept-thfe in battle. Should he elect to fight there can be little enough doubt of the outcome. .With the Austrian fleet weakened by the loss of three of its four best Dreadnoughts, it will be an easy matter.for the Allies to bring a cons.idera.blj; superior force to bear upon the German squadron in the Black Sea, and in the conditions that obtain it does not seem possible for thc'.eneiny to adopt_ delaying tactics and evade a decisive action. He has a fortified base at Sevastopol which it might be inexpedient to "attack with , ii purely na-val force, 'hut "the Allies' a"re no doiibt in a position, should the need arise, to land a much stronger fqrec in the Crimea, or in the region of Odessa, should:; all .'attempt-. b& m.avde to defend that port, thansGermany-is now able to spare for operations .anyjvhere. outside the Western 'theatre. ''■''■

••• li-is' air open question,, meantime, '•though- oSe" : that Should''bo speedily resolved, whether the Germans are in a position to make even temporarily -effective use of the ex-Ilussian fleet in disputing the command of the.Black Sea, An English naval .writer-observed'' some ; time ago that .'the. SussiaVv Ship;? jwere:probably in. a state' of considerable disrepair, and that if the fleet's speed were sixteen knots it would be surprising any.-rate- for several months to come. A fleet restricted to this low speed -would make a poor showing against a well-found Allied fleet of superior force. The same writer pointed .out. that the manning question- raised • s.erious.-. pi'ob'lems for Germany-.- If the scjuadron were to .be efficient, he saidi'it'would "require German crews.'- "Only- the. most highly-trained personnel, will_ enable i-fc to achieve anything. .• It is very questionable-.if the Gormans can provide complements- for the ships and'.stjll.. keep .the. High Sea Fleet in a condition' for action'." It seems as. unlikely now as when these words were written that Germany has succeeded in efficiently "manning the Russian ships, and if she has not they,may be a dead asset in her hands."' The Allies in any case have every incentive to put the stolen squadron out of action as soon as possible, more especially since it includes submarines.

;■ ;Alij " blip; later 1 news dealing with .events .on^the.ltalian.' front and with internal development's iii .the Dual Monarchy is of good promise. Under the onslaught of the Italians and tho other Allied forces co-operating the Austrians are suffering a defeat which seems likely to develop.into ii complete debacle. Well as they arc calculated to command attention on ■their .merits,..however,, reports de-tailing-.the-progress'-of the Italian offensive- arc -overshadowed by those which, deal w'ith'/'thc political collapse .of the Hapsburg Empire. •These all tell substantially the same story. . The authority of tho Emperor and his supporters is reduced tu a Shadow!' The , various national groups which were held together .only by force,and terrorism arc successfully asserting their independence, and even the German Austrians seem more inclined to seek ■terms from-- the Allies than to link, thcil-fate, with that of Germany.' There appears .'very ."little doubt that Austria-Hungary, will sooii be added to the .number, of Germany's lost allies. -As-yet. there-is no really clear indication of what Germany intends to do, but as events arc moving/it should not be long before she is visibly faced by the choice of surrendering or inviting an early invasion of her territory by the Allied armies. If, as some .reports declare, the terms on which Marshal. Foch is prepared to grail t an armistico have been made known to Uc German Government, it may be taken for granted that these terms provide for the occupation of-German territory and Tor a : measure* of control over thg. German'.naval and military ..forces which would put them definitely and-finally-out-of action. An ar-nvistice , ' in : the • :-ordinary- \ sense,

leaving open the possibility of a resumption of hostilities, is obviously out of the question.