PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 12, Issue 25, 24 October 1918, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Odereiit accounts of internal conditions in Germany, though ' they rest at best upon somewhat doubtful authority, in the main paint such a picture as might be expected from the tone and terms of the Note in reply to the United States. The Note itself, well described as a clumsy trap set merely to involve the United States in diplomatic negotiations, affords such convincing evidence that the war party is still in the saddle that it is possible to, accept with some faith reports like that which states to-day that Ludendotiff "is playing a strong hand, with considerable military support, and the threat of a coup d'etat." A military dictatorship— Germany has it already in all but name—and a last desperate effort to tire or trick the Allies represent the line of action Ludendoijff and his'supporters may be expected to follow as long as they remain in control'. But even taking account of the past subservience of the people of Germany, it seems reasonable to believe that a military dictatorship established in that country at the present stage will rest upon a decidedly insecure foundation. As events arc shaping, the war offers Germany, nothing henceforth but the progressive, stages of more or less rapidly developing defeat. Jn such circumstances, even the most ruthless dictatorship, will hardly find it easy to maintain itself in power. However, the German Chancellor's statement that Germany will continue to fight rather than accept a peace by violence can only be taken to mean that Lcdexdorfk is to have his way, for a. time. Germany, it would seem, is committed to the policy of making the best retreat possible to a short line and then settling clown to a winter campaign in the. hope that something may turn up to improve her prospects.

It is, of course, not certain that the German dictators will be able to successfully carry out their programme of withdrawing their armies to a short front, but the chances admittedly are that they will get ba-ck unbroken, though in diminished strength. Something is said to-

day by a London Times correspondent about the conditions that will arise if the enemy retires to the Mouse line, but the passages cabled, no doubt only a fragmentary extract from the correspondents dispatch, leave a number of material points untouched. It is observed that the shortening of the enemy's front; will enable him to hold the new front with half the present divisions, thus releasing half a millio.n for the' creation of new reserves. Even allowing for the fact that it has been torn from its context, this is a particularly unconvincing statement of the case. It is true that a front is available to the enemy from Metz to the 'Dutch border which is little more than half as long as the somewhat ragged and uneven line between these points on which he is at present retreating, or, in places, stubbornly resisting attack. The present German lino between Holland and the vicinity of Metz is about 230 miles long. The line extending south from Liege which is named to-day as that on which the enemy is likely to terminate his retreat measures about 120 miles. From the defensive standpoint this line has a further advantage in that it includes an extensive tract of dead, or at all events extremely difficult, ground where it crosses the rugged country of the Ardennes.

It is far from being the case, how* ever, that in taking up this line the enemy would profit and gain relief in a degree proportionate to the shortening of his front. In the first place the moral effect of such a retreat upon both soldiers and civilians is bound to be considerable Taking up the Antwerp line the enemy would resign all but a very small part of the territory he has invaded in France and about half Belgium. Going back to the line south of Liege he would be everywhere in the comparatively near neighbourhood of his own frontiers. This is important on several grounds. It would bring the invasion of Germany into near prospect. Once back in the region of his own frontiers, the enemy will pursue the tactics of "elastic defence," if he pursues them at all, under the serious penalty of.giving up tracts of his own industrial territory to invasion. The same conditions have an all-important bearing on aerial warfare, in which the Allies arc every day demonstrating their rapidly increasing superiority. Already Germany is open to far more damaging attack from the air than when her battlefront was traced further west, and such a retirement as is in question would lay open her industrial centres and arsenals in the Rhine valley to devastating bombardment at short range.

It is not to be overlooked that the retreat in which the German armies arc engaged is imposing a heavy drain upon their strength as it proceeds. One reason that retreats are unpopular is that thev are made commonly at a serious price in men and material, and the German retreat is certainly no exception to the rule. Germany has lost 1300,000 men in the category of prisoners alone during the last three months, together with over 4000 guns and a vast amount of other war material. Prom her own standpoint these losses are all the more serious since those of the Allies have been relatively light. It has been reported of several engagements that tho Allied casualties did not exceed tho number of enemy prisoners taken, and some Allied units have taken as many prisoners in an extended course of fighting as balanced, or more, than balanced, their own casualties in the same period. Our own division has closely approached this standard since it set out from the Hcbutenie area in August, and a similar claim is made for the Australians.

There is not much detail news at time of writing, but a- brief official message makes the important announcement that tho British have captured Valenciennes junction. This is an important forward step in tho conquest of the enemy's communications and towards increasing the difficulties of his retreat, and , it is evident that he is already badly shaken in his defence of the Scheldt line, on which he is attempting a stand in Flanders and Northern France. A short unofficial message indicates tho possibility of an enemy retreat in the Mouse Valley, north of Verdun, where the Americans- of late have been fighting an almost stationary battle, but the German positions in this region arc vital to the security of tne whole line, and any voluntary retreat made is likely to be of very limited scope.