PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 12, Issue 5, 1 October 1918, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is becoming a difficult matter to keep pace with the rush of great events in the Western theatre, but it is plain enough that in sum these events' spell disaster to tho enemy and disaster ■to which, even with winter as near at hand as it is, he will find it no easy matter to set limits. To-day's news shows that the British and Belgians in Flanders have outflankecl and captured the Passchendaelc and Messines ridges and tho great Forest of Houthulst in the, north. Appaiv ently tho Allies are still pushing forward in an advance which as one of its results raises a serious throat to Lille. Further south British divisions have reached the southern and north-western outskirts of Cambrai. The New Zealand Division is engaged on this front, and as reports show is maintaining its reputation. Tho latest available reports relating to the British front declare that a tremendous battle is in progress on the whole front from north of Cambrai .to St. Quentin. Tho British and the Americans, who are apparently operating on this sector in considerable strength, have crossed the Oambrai-St. Quentin railway at points well to the southward of Cambrai.

With his main defences falling to such attacks as arc in progress, it is distinctly probable that tho enemy will bo compelled to undertake a general retreat on the whole front from Flanders to tho Aisne. This is the more likely since, in spile of his utmost efforts, the vital flank defences of his great salient in Franco and Flanders arc giving way stage by stage under the unexampled concentration of attack which is being developed by tho French and Americans in tho Champagne, tho Argonne, and the Mcuse valley. On the heights of tho Aisne too the French havo advanced fivo miles from the lino they occupied a. day or two ago.

As matters are shaping, however, prospects scorn to bo measured not- bo

much by the detail achievements of the Allied armies, wonderful as these are, as by considerations of larger scope. There ii a point in war at which the ability of an army to retain its organisation and cohesion is definitely put to the tost, and to appearance tho Germans in the Western theatre are not far short of being tested in this fashion to-day. It is wise, however, to remember that winter is , near, and that even such an attack as the Allies are now developing demands for full success a period of good weather which may not bo available this year.

The measure of Bulgaria's sincerity in seeking terms no doubt corresponds tq that of the danger to which she is exposed in the field. Accepting this standard it can hardly be doubted that she will make all possible haste to secure what terms the Allies arc prepared to offer, for the present aspect of her military fortunes is plainly desperate. The Serbians arc pushing forward towards Uskub, the one important railway junction in Southern Serbia, with good prospects of getting there in time to split the defeated Bulgarian armies into two sections, of which ono will be leftwith no hopeful lino of retreat. The Austrians are reported to be retir-, ing in Albania, and in any case there is no escape for the Biilgars iu that direction. Meantime, in the country east of the Vardar, the Serbs havo made a comparatively close _ approach to the Bulgarian frontier in an advance which directly co-ordinates with tho Anglo-Greek invasion on the south by way of Strumnitza. The Serbs are advancing on a front almost due cast of Uskub and further south, and in places arc only about ten miles from the frontier and 25 miles from the Struma valley. Before th"e war there was no railway down this valley, but mention yesterday of tho-"Sofia-Drama" railway indicates that one has been built. In 1914 a railway had beon carried from Sofia to a town in tho Struma valley, 30 miles further south, and from this point 70 miles of new railway would give the Bulgars a link with the Seres-Drama railway in Greek Macedonia. ' It is likely that this link has been constructed, and if it has, so much tho greater importance attaches to tho Allied invasion of Bulgaria by way of Strumnitza, and # fcho Serbian advance towards the frontier further north. The AngloGreek forces in the south are likely to reach tho Struma valley in tho very near future. They are now well to tho eastward of Sfcrumnitza, and that place is only twelve miles from the Struma valley.

The position might be changed if the Austro-Germans could speedily send heavy reinforcements into tho Balkans, but it seems very probable that reports that such reinforcements have been sent and are beginning to arrive arc in tho nature of bluff. It is obvious that the Central P6wers cannot hope to accomplish anything by a limited effort in the Balkans. It is no longer a case of dealing with an ill-found, though heroic, Serbian Army. Tho Allied armies are numerically strong and well supplied with essential equipment. Giving weight lo that fact and to fcho losses the Bulgars have suffered in men and material it is evident that tho Austro-Ger-mans would have to bring up a powerful army to havo any hope of stemming tTie Allied offensive, and as matters are going in the Western [theatre it is tolerably certain that they havo no such army at disposal.