PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 310, 25 September 1918, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

As reports stand the Allied offensivo in Macedonia is developing apace. The narrow wedge in wJiicn the Serbians' advanced until they had cut the enemy's main communications in the Vardar valley has been broadened out, on the west by tlw Italian advance in the Cerna bend and on the east by the advance in which British ana Greek forces arc now following up an enemy retreat on the front astride tho Vardar valley. There is a suggestion that'the enemy will take up a lino on which he would resign to the Allies a broad wedge of Serbian Macedonia extending to the vicinity of the Babuna Pass, about 30 miles north of Monastir, and east to the Vardar, but tho existing situation is one of open possibilities, and great as arc- the opportunities for defensive organisation in the mountain country of the Balkans, it is by no means certain that the enemy will contrive in the near future to stabilise his front.

Even if he docs, his position will be much less secure than it was before tho Allies opened their offensive, for he will lose some useful lines of lateral communication and will be exposed to the danger of an eastward thrust into Bulgaria, threatening in rear that section of his front in Greek Macedonia which thus far has remained quiescent. Meantime the Serbs lia'vo not only cut the Vardar railway about forty miles up its length from tW SerboGreck frontier, but have cut another railway, built since Serbia was invaded, which leaves the Vardar further north and extends south-west to , Prilep. It is tho cutting of this railway that, according to one of to-day's messages, Has isolated one of the Bulgarian armies. This statement should not be read too literally. The Bulgnrs in the Prilep region have still roads and tracks to retreat by. But there is no doubt that the Serbs havo driven homo a splendidly effective attack on the enemy's communications, and it seems highly probable that the BuJgar-Germans are by no means at an entt of their problems of retreat.

The magnitude of tho victory won in Palestine is made very plainly evident in to-day's reports, and tho news that the passages over the Jordan were- closed on Sunday seals the fate of the two Turkish armies which wcro deployed on the Palestine front. Apparently the elements which escaped while a way of retreat remainod open were a small proportion of the ■ total enemy strength, and no'doubt the return of prisoners. captured will be expanded very considerably before it is closed.

t * » The big question now raised is how far it will bo possible to build upon this signal achievement. Mn. W. T. Massey's observation that the defeat the Turks have suffered is one from which they cannot hope- to recover perhaps relates meantime to Palestine and Syria, but it seems distinctly probable that a great e-xt<r»don of the scope of the British invasion is now practicable. It is likely that the armies which have been all but annihilated in Palestine, together with tlioso which are facing tho British in Mesopotamia, constitute a very great part of the total strength at the disposal of the Ottoman Empire for operations in the field. It is known that the Turkish armies . have been much weakened by desertion and iiv othor ways , , and unless Germany finds it possible to swiftly assist her ally— a> task that is not likely to be easy as' affairs .are- shaping in the Western theatre and in the Balkans—tho whole military fabric of Turkey may bo shaken by the disaster suffered in Palestine

One of to-day's messages mentions that'a Turkish force of thirty thousand men, but with a rifle strength of less than seven thousand, is operating on.the line of the Hcjaz railway, and has yet to be dealt with, nut the Turks will have to multiply this force if they are to create a barrier to a further extension of the British invasion. It may appear that conditions have now been created in which It is possible to undertake an advance on Aleppo with reasonably good hopes of success. The distance to be covered in such ah advance is great— Aleppo stands nearly three hundred miles north of the positions General Allenby's troops have reached in Palestine—but so also are the drain which has been imposed on the enemy's failing resources and the demoralising effect of such a defeat as he has just suffered. It has a material bearing upon the feasibility of an advance on Aleppo that in the area between that place and the present front in Palestine the railway running north is nowhero more than 70 miles distant from the coast, while the country to the east of the railway is largely desert. An alternative plan of attack on Aleppo •would bo to make a landing on the coast of the Gulf of Alckandretta. Here, in tho region north-west of Aleppo, the Bagdad railway makes a comparatively close approach to the coast. Aleppo owes its importance' to the fact that its possession gives command of the Bagdad railway—the enemy's sole railway link with Mesopotamia and all the territory to the cast-as well as of the railway striking south through Syria. Much, of course, depends upon what Germany is capable of doing to assist her Ottoman allies, and in any case no approach' is likely to be made to Aleppo by any route until the Turks arc almost at their last gasp, but it now seems possible that they have more closely approached that cmulil'-<n than was supposed until Gbneiml Allenbv had delivered his splendid thrust in Palestine.

Although no extended movement has been reported in the Western theatre during the last day or two, it is still by no means certain that the enemy will be allowed to settle down for the winter on or near his prcscnUinos. In the latest fighting the British have made noteworthy progress in clearing up tho approaches to the main defences of the Hindcnburg lino between Cambrai and St. Quentin. Judging by tho account given yesterday by ' Mb. Keith Mubdoch of tho"British artillery attack upon these defences, only the early arrival of bad weather will save-the enemy from another smashing defeat in thia region. The French also are maintaining their .pressure further south. Their latest achievement is an advance to Hie west bank of tlio Oise less than four miles north of La Fere. Here they have mastered dofences which were maintained by the Germans at the end of their retreat last year, and captured tho village of Verdeuil and a neighbouring, fort, one of those which encircle La Fore.' Tho French troops in this

area, however, are still confronted by the flooded river valley. Most of fcho recent messages from tho Western theatre have dealt with events on the front between Flanders and the Oisc—particularly- its southern, section—but it is, of course, by no means unlikely that the Allies may profit by an interval of goo<l or passable weather to attack in strength further east.