The Dominion. THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 1918. A SCHOOL OF FALSE PROPHETS

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 310, 19 September 1918, Page 4

The Dominion. THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 1918. A SCHOOL OF FALSE PROPHETS

Onk of the best proofs lately given of the straits to which tho enemy is reduced is the endeavour made by Admiral von Schebr (Chief of the German Admiralty Staff) to revive the drooping spirits of Germany and her allies uy assuring them that the activities of tho U-boats will bring Britain to negotiation. If facts point the other .way, so much the worse for facts. That is von Scheee's attitude. But if his faith*-or his credulity—is great enough to enable him to beliovo the incredible, it is extremely doubtful whether his disillusioned countrymen can bo fooled much longer with promises of victory. They have hoard this sort of talk before, and aro getting tired of their false prophets. Bitter experience has shown them that confident words will not stay their adversaries, and the loud reiteration of the magic formula—"Germany will win because she must" has now lost its charm. They have abandoned faith in the incantations of their psychologists and tho predictions of their seers. Tho irresistible logic of events gives the lie direct to the pretended confidence of the Chief of tho Admiralty Staff in the invincibility of the U-boata. His boastings are mftdc ridiculous by the failure of tho aubrnarines to'interfere with tho American transpdrts, and tho German public arc sick of being _ deceived. They have been told lie upon lie. Their misleaders boldly asserted that America Would never declare war; that if she did the U-boats would prevent her troops from reaching Europe; that if her soldiers-did get across tho Atlantic they'would De so inadequately trained and equipped that the German armies would simply walk through them. All of these prophecies havo been falsified, and now von Scheeh has the effrontery to expect the people to share his professed bolicf in the power of tho submarines to bring Britain to her knees. It is no wonder that there has been an outburst of public anger. The prophets still prophesy falsely, but tho people no longer love to have it so. The German submarines have now been ordered to make a supremo effort to destroy the. troopships of the Allies... But it is much easier to issue such an order than to carry it out. Every clay tho Allied navies aro improving their methods of dealing with; the under-watcr peril. The- convoy system has been brought to a wonderful state of perfection both from tho offensive and defensive points of view. Those who aro in a position ty speak.from firsthand information arc most emphatic in their assurances. It is true that the enemy still levies an unpleasantly largo toll upon our merohant vessels, but the Hun on board a submarine which attacks a convoy would bo far safer as a member of a suicide club. He may score an occasional surprise when the weather conditions arc in his favour, but it is now rarely indeed that he escapes, and more often than not ho is disposed of before he docs any damage. Tho Navy men who know the game and know the risks are well satisfied with the progress of events as far as this phase of tho war is concerned. The odds gr.gw increasingly in our favour—and they are very big odds now. The men whose special task it is to copo with the, submarine menace will not bo at all intimidated by the enemy's "supremo • effort," ur by von Scheer's declaration that 'it will succeed. Such threats will not frighten us, and they are quickly losing their power to enhcarten the Germans themselves. In Juno last Captain Peksius, writing in the Berliner Tagehlatt, stated: "The mistake frequently, made by us since the beginning of the submarine campaign has.been to allow tho wish to be father to the thought.' . Intelligent, Germans realise • that the Allied navies cannot be wished, out of existence, and that Germany s hopes of defeating them •have dwindled to vanishing point. Ihe wildly optimistic chief of tho German Admiralty Staff is not (mite so rash as some of the prophets who have previously endeavoured to buoy up the German spirit with false expectations. He declines to fix a dats for the fulfilment of his prediction. The excessive precision of his prophetic predecessors brought them into seri--cms disrepute. When the ruthless submarine campaign was commenced the German public was assured .that in six months Britain would bo, forced to make -peace. In six mouths that prophet was proved to be a liar. But his mantle fell on others. Tho Frankfurter 'Aalunri tells the story with refreshing candour, n

I rofiSsors, officers, enginesrs,- and oilier connoissem-s reckoned out exactly tho day upon which the hVt which provides England with I'ood would, of necessity, bo used tip. They did this oven after tho famous six months had expired, and they appealed to I heir special technical knowledge and lo their good relations with the German Admiralty. For example, the chief engineer of an important biiikliug ynnl prophesiedl. not long afro that there would be nothing left on February 1, ISIS. That was, ii private calculation. But, lo revert to lion , yon Capelle, Herr Erzberger has said, with regard to the point; of view of tho Secretary of State: "Th,b. goal was to. be reached on January 1, 1018. This calculation w.ih the answer given last August. (1017) to the July debates/' , '. >

In Juno of the present year von Capglle had another fit of opfciinisra, which induced him to inform , tho 'still credulous German people that , the tonnage shortage of the Allies iwas so greatly increasing that their tonnage was no longer sufficient for waging war and living. Bufc Captain Peusius would not, without protest, permit von Capelle to lay "that flattering unction to his soul." Tho remorseless Captain pointed out that as a matter of plain fact the enemies of Germany "for the time being both live and waKo war, and that it will be possible for them to hold out for some time against the shortage of tonnage." - The continual falsification of private and official calculations eventually became- almost intolerable. Ono exasperated deputy declared in tho Reichstag that "all the calculations of the naval authorities aro fit only for the wastepaper basket." "Away with them," says the Frankfurter Zeiluiif/,\"ii\\(\ lot us await the actual results." Five months' have passed since then, and ono of the outstanding "actual results" is that the Allied navies arc more able than ever before to do battle effectively and successfully with tho submarine "menace. No amount of artificnlly-crcatcd'optim-

ism can blot out this:' all-important fact. VON Scheee's : prophecy that tho U-boats will compel Britain to seek peace by negotiation will undoubtedly prove «s_ false- as Uie many like predictions to which "actual facts" have already given the lie. Still, a drowning man will grasp At a straw.