THEIR AFTER-WAR GRIND

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 306, 14 September 1918, Page 2

THEIR AFTER-WAR GRIND

WHAT THE GERMANS MUST FACE IN I TAXATION ! A BLEAK PROSPECT I' In the Bavarian Upper House on Febb'uaryO, Count Preysing gavo a'figure for , German taxation after the war which has boon, widely adopted in Germany. Hβ said Germany must recta .on'a yearly increase of M.l2'milliards in Imperial expenditure over peace time; making U. milliards a year altogether (£700,000,000),; nnd- that the Federal and Conluiunal expenditure Would be doubled) 5L5.0 milliards against 2:S 3 thlis-' making, altogether M.19.6' milliards (£980,000,000). To meet this, ho- said, Germany would liave to , levy four times her pre-war taxation. This' figure , apparently merely represented' tlie fSet that the; poaoo expenditure he gave; (M.2' milji'af'ds Imperial plus.M.2;B milliards Federal dim Communal) 1 , was about olie-ijuarter of 0.6 mitlittrds; as-though- , all the peace , expenditure had been raieed by taxes. There is, of course; a liuge fallacy here; and it- is ' iUterestiiiß to- aeo, , given Count Pressing's basic figures of 111creaso in expenditure,; how many times Germany's taxation would have to be • multiplied, over tlio ;,pre-war. figure, assuming the war ended to-morrow. First, Imperial yearly expenditure befdro the , war was not M.2. milliards. ; bul 3 milliards. In 1900 , it whs>sL3266 millions; in 1910, 3021; in 1911, 2924; in 1912,: 2886; in 1913, 3096. This ■ makes a total imperial expenditure , of,: says, at least M.lo , milliards. 'C£7<>oj--000,000) to be met, not 14' milliards; ■ Omitting the relatively small Extraor-1 diiiary : BUi'get) chiefly covered by. borrowing,, ' Imperial , taxes in- 191 v! and 1913 provided not quite one-third of the receipts of tlie'lmi>erial Ordinary Budget. In 1912 'taxes,, including, stamps/provided. 5K934jU2,900' out 6f a total of M.2',827.19'4,400; in- 1913, M.948,312,000' out of a total of 51.3,-. 580,195,400: Of- the 1913 total, however, $1,416,787,000 was referable to the'. extraordina;ry Defence Levy; anil M.280,477,200' to , surpluses Iran pro-, vious years brought into tlio 1913' accounts; deducting these;; the total , was J1.2,882,929,000; taxes'. therefore again supplying not quito-'one-third. ■, j If then it, is 'lowed' to ascertain bow SXiny times ■ Imperial taxation would have-to , be multiplied in 1919, ; | assuming- th* war endcd : to-morrow, the' p'ossibilittes'' of expansiop: uv tho , other sources of revenue must first be , considered, though' K can only be , done roughly. 0 take the other Budget receipt in de&ii:' (1) Posts and , telegraphs in , -1914 1 i»od'U'ced M.881,247 (J upo. In the average rale of expansion between 1908' and 1914 bo supposed to 1 :b'e" ma'hvfcttinwl',- they would , produce 1 M.1,003,141,0t)D- in 1919. (2) Imperial; State railways produced in 1914, Slid on the same footing would produce M.-200,383.000 in 1919:(3) The Imperial PrintinK Office mei'cly 1 fluctuates' Tvithin narrow- limits ;• take ; tllo highest figure, M.13,885,000;(19U).1 (4) The item "divers administrative , refell- heavily between 1910 and 1912, but roso slightly in; 1913; take the-1913 figure, , M : .82,621,000 ; . (5) The banking ilom fluctuates without increasing-; an , average : of.the six years 1908-191-1 give* M\20,050,000. (6) The iteiii of equalisation for Cnstonis, I taxes, otc., which are- not tlie' same for all the . Federal States, increases very slowly;, it was M.54,007,000 iiv 1914; call it M.60,000,000 for 1919. (7-)■■ The matricular contributions we're given -as ji.51,940,800 in' 1912,. and each subsequent year. Leave it at. that. __ (8) A trifle for. "miscellaneous,,- , . 51.2,736,000 in 1913 (1914 was lower). Lastly (9)- Customs and Excise, 51,753,930,000 .(estimated), in 1914.- Assuming the average rate of increase between 1908 and 1914' to continue,' Customs would produce M.927,242,000 in 1919. Add these together, and the , receipts other than taxes in ■ 1919 would amount to- 5t.2 1 055 i 033 i 000. / ■ . In fact, however, this is too favour- j able to Germany. No one can say.ivhat the Imperial Customs will bring in at first after 'peace, but it is not the , least likely that they will sh6w a .steady expansion on 1913, and it lias.yet to be seen' what action the Allies ma;y take witli regard to imports into Gormaiiy. The largest' sources of Customs, revenue; grain (37\ per cent, of tile-whole in 1913),.tobRocb (16 per ContO, and coffee (13 pwceirt.), ate Very nilnei'able. Again, whatever may. be the case with posts and telegraphs, it is quite certain that the Imperial railways, for some years after peace, will riot only pay/iuv thing at-all, but will require.a,-sub-sidy. This follows from' the known figures of the Prussian State' railways. These railways in 1913 brought Prussia 51.560,784,900 not r and were ■■stall: paying, in 1916; but in 1.917 they showed a deficit of M.250,000,000, and the deficit for 1918 was estimated- at 51.500,000,000, reduced to 51.159,000,000 by an increase in faros and rates.-" . x However, putting this aside, and taking the total of items other than taxes in the 1919' Budget at 51.2,555,000,000, and the total of that Budget nt.M.lo milliards-, this- leaves 51.12,445 million - (£622,250,000) to be raised by Imperial taxation; that is,-' more than, thirteen times the amount raised by Imperi.il taxation in the last full peace year, 1913, which was 51.948,312,000 (£4/,415,600).' As the war will not end to-. inorW, as tlie receip'ts assumed from Customs arid Railways fill-' hardly be realised, and as it is at least doubtful whether* an extra - twelve mil-, liards a year, would reilly cover Germany's needs, nto only for the war debt, etc.,' but for struction, taxation may, in »<>*>.. * e ; quire to reach a considerably highei multiple. But it seems' pr6bablo that irt no Circumstances, Short ofßepudiation or confiscation of part of the natiohal wealth, can Imperial taxation m Germany after the War be , less than thirteen times what it was m 1913. As the Federal Council have refused to sanction an Imperial income tax, ino prospect looks pretty hopeless. P The irriter has iiot the material-to make a similar estimate for the Federal States and Communes.- But ; Count Prevsins's estimate that these : taxes will bo doubled must certainly bfi greatlv exceeded. For instance, Prussia- in 1913 raised 51.525,489,50(5 by-taxation, M 560,784,900 from State railways, and 51'136,009,300 from-other State undertaking's, her reniaiiiiiig sources of revenuo beiui? trifling. Consequently, if 'her expenditure is to be doubled while her railways show a lorgo deficit, taxation may easily become five or six times as "teat as iii 1913. It. seems clear frflin certain passages in the Prussian Finance Minister's Budget statement for 1918 that there would bB no chsnCo whatever of raising anything, approachine such taxation. As to communes, tho Elberfelcl Statistical Department lias shown that, out of 111 Prussian cities, 73 l.ind already by 1917 doubled their taxation. Of course the same people pay all .threo sets of taxesCommunal, Federal, iin'd/Imperial.