The Dominion WEDNESDAY, JULY 31, 1918. TURKEY AND GERMANY

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 267, 31 July 1918, Page 4

The Dominion WEDNESDAY, JULY 31, 1918. TURKEY AND GERMANY

The news that relations between Germany and Turkey have been severed cannot be acccpted without confirmation, but it raises highlyimportant- possibilities. It is hardly necessary to point out that a complete breach between the two countries would tell with far-reaching effect upon the war. Definitely breaking away from Germany, Turkey would have no interest in continuing the _ war. It would bo her natural policy to make the best terms possible with the Entente Powers and open her territory and waterways to the passage of their armies and fleets. If matters went so far it is likely that the Allies would bo enabled to bring Bulgaria in turn to submission, and so to gain a much better position than they now hold from which to attack Austria. Another result of Turkey's defection from the Teutonic Alliance would lie to give the Allies a reasonably open way of approach to Southern Russia, where comparatively small German forces are at present supreme, or, at all events, bavi not yet been' effectively challenged. It would ho foolish, howovcr, to assume that these prospects are actually raised until more definite evidence of Turkey's action is available than the unconfirmed report at nressnt in hand. As a matter of .fact, it is by no means certain that the ruling powers at Constantinople, even if they arc wholly desirous'of escaping from German domination and tutelage, are in a position to carry their desire into cffect. Turkey is less the ally than the vassal of Germany, and it may he taken for granted that the latter country has taken every possible precaution with a view to holding her vassal in subjection. The mixed Turkish population has no effectivo voico in determining national policy. Its fate is very largely in the hands of the Germans and those of tho gang of adventurers who hold sway" at Constantinople. It would be optimistic in the circumstances to expect any sudden termination of the German-Turkish alliance. Or. tho other hand, there is much to suggest that the allianco has already become to a great extent ineffective, and also that Germany, as her military problems in Western Europe become more acnto, is likely to find it increasingly difficult to maintain her present control over the Turkish people and their corrupt r .tiers. Apart from tho report which alleges a severance of relations with Gcripany, several indications of friction between Turkey and her allies have appeared during tho last few days. Part of tho price which induced Bulgaria to enter the war was the concession by the Ottoman Empire of as much territory as gave her complete control of the railway to tho Aegean port of Dedeagach. Now that Bulgaria l'.as profited at Rumania's expense, Turkey is demanding tho return of this territory, and it seems that Germany, having made conflicting promises in the matter to her minor allies, is how unable to devise a settlement they, aro both prepared to accept. According to an Athens message which appeared ,vesrday, this dispute has ibreoipitated a Cabinet crisis at Constantinople, in 'which '.the pro-German Enver Pasha is opposed by Talaat Bey, whose policy is "Turkey for tho TurW _ On what lines Talaat elaborates this policy has yet to appear, but the disastrous fruits of tho policy of subservience to Germany, combined with the war weariness of the Ottoman population and the privations to which it is subjected, should improve his prospects in an attempt to seize the reins of power.

With the exception of the unconfirmed report of a severance of relations with Germany, the stories now current of political tension at Constantinople, and of a widening breach between Turkey and Germany, are in themselves vague and inconclusive. But they take on not a little significance in view of the changes time and events have manifestly wrought in the relations between the Ottoman and Teutonic Powers'. _ One fact which stands out clearly is that Turkey's military power has dwindled in a degree not wholly explained by the defeats she has suffered in the field. The collapse of llussia released approximately one half of the military force of the Ottoman Empire for service elsewhere than in Armenia, but no such turn as might in the circumstances have been expected was given to its military fortunes. In Allied circles an uneasy apprehension arose that the relief she had gained might enable Turkey to make _ a strong effort at recovery both in Mesopotamia and in Palestine, and it was feared also that the position in Macedonia' might be changed for tho worse. These expectations have been agreeably disappointed. The year which sawjlussia collapse saw also a succession of Turkish defeats in Mesopotamia and in Palestine, and in its closing month Genekal Allenby's forces entered Jerusalem. At the same time the Teutonic allies were held inactive on the Balkan front during tho period which witnessed the mobilisation and equipment of the Greek Army, Tho apparent explanation of Turkey's weakness and inactivity in the critical phase of the war which followed the Russian collapse is that the relief she gained from that ovent was and is out-

weighed by the moral and material effects of the loss of Bagdad and Jerusalem, the establishment of an independent Arab _ kingdom, and the refusal of cffcctivc German support. Apart from the cvidcnco of exhaustion and disorganisation afforded in tho campaigns in which she is involvod, thoro is equally plain

evidence that Turkey has been degraded from the place she formerly held as an active, though subordinate, partner in Germany's schemes of conquest. The design Germany is seeking to elaborate in Eastern Europe is unmistakable. She aims at opening a- road to the East by way of the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and Northern Persia, which would make her completely independent of Turkey and also of Bulgaria in developing future schemes of conquest in Asia. The only place allotted to Turkey in this plan is that of a victim of German ambition. Even the unscrupulous adventurers who handed Turkey over to Germany's tender mcrcies are hardly likely to view these developments with complete indifference, and it is distinctly possible that some among their number are looking for a way of escape. Tai,a.vt Bey or any other leader who may feel inclined to test, the possibilities of the situation will know that tho permanent- liberation of Mesopotamia and Palestine, tho crcation of some form of independent autonomy in Armenia, and possibly international control of the Dardanelles, arc standing conditions of peace with the Entente, Peace on those terms may well seem prefer able to continued _ exploitation _by Germany, and it is not impossible that now or later leaders who favour such l a peace may gain the upper hand. 'A popular revolution is hardly to-be expected in Turkey, but on the other hand it is a country offering exceptional scope for palace and army intrigues.