PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 237, 25 June 1918, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Hopes inspired by lato events in tho Austro-Italian campaign arc realised in the news that from Montello to tha sea—that is to say, on tho whole of tho low-lying front— the Austrians are retiring across tho Piavc in disorder, and closely pursued. Summing up the position rcachcd in this campaign on Saturday, the weekly official review which appears to-day remarks that it is evident that the enemy offensive has failed so completely as to amount to a. severe defeat. At tho timo to which this observation relates the Austrians not only retained a footing on the lower slopes of Montello, but held a number of Bridgeheads along tho west bank of the Piavc farther south. With his abandonment of these bridgeheads the enemy's defeat is, of course, heavily intensified. Unless he retains a limited foothold on the lower slopes of Montello, and oven this is doubtful,' tho enemy has literally nothing to show for tho tremendous effort ho has put forth sinco he opened his offensivo on Saturday week, and for the enormous losses it has entailed. According to an Italian semi-official estimate, theso losses amount to at least 180,000 men killed, wounded, and taken prisoner. Apart from tho enemy's complete failure to gain any tactical advantage which would in part offsc't the sacrifices' lie has incurred, it has still to be seen what toll the Italians are able to take of his trocps in their retreat. It is perhaps most important of all that the humiliating defeat suffered by its armies little more than a week after they had been launched in a great offensive is likely to stimulate tho revolutionary disorders in the Dual Monarchy which are daily assuming a more threatening aspect. It is peculiar that Italian and Austrian messages dispatched some hours later than the one which reports an Austrian retreat across tho Piave make no mention of this event. Standing alone, however, these messages would carry an all but definite indication that such a retreat is in progress. Tho Italian messages declare that tho first phase of the "battle has ended in the full defeat of tho Austro-Hungarian armies, which have not succeeded'in reaching any of their objectives. The Austrian report practically amounts to a full admission of this claim. It states, amongst other things, that owing to the flooded state of tho Piavc, "wo arc experiencing the greatest difficulties in providing the front with | necessary munitions and provisions." \ Id seems most unlikely that this freo admission would liavo been made if the effort to gain and hold ground west of tho Piave had not, for tho timo at least, been definitely abandoned. The magnitude of the Austrian defeat in any case is apparent, though it yet remains to b(r seen how far its "onscguences will extend. * i * i*i*. Very probably the explanation of wh'at is left in doubt in reports as they stand at tho moment of writing is that the Italians at this stage of tho campaign are contcut with a limited effort on the Piavc line, and have no thought meantime of undertaking an extended pursuit eastward of that rivci\ In view of the demoralised condition of the enemy armies ou the Piave, an Italian advance cast of the river is no doubt quite feasible, bub such a movement might easily result in advantages

more apparent than real, and it is obvious iilso that it would be attended by certain dangers. .Fighting the enemy on something like oven terms, the Italians have prevailed triumphantly both in the. mountain area,, where their defences, including the' sectors held by French and British divisions', are at all points intact and unimpaired, arid in the low country, where they have so heavily defeated all attempts by the Austrians to gain a secure foothold west of the Piave. But much as late events havo modified the general situation and outlook in the campaign, it still remains true that the enemy enjoys material advantages of position which the Italians cannot afford to ignore. In particular they cannot afford to in any way weaken the defence of their northern flank, covered as it is by a defensive I line established almost on the edge I of the mountain country between the I Piave and Lake Garda, in the Southjern Trentino, while the possibility remains that it may be subjected to renewed enemy attacks. Advancing east of the Piave, they would not only lengthen their front in the low country and limit correspondingly the forcc available for operations in the mountain sectors, but as they advanced would present an increasing length of exposed flank to the Alpine ranges, extending northeast from the present battle area, in which all the passes are, of course, held by the enemy. Thcro is little' enough temptation to undertake an advancc in these conditions.

A iiore immediate' reason for abstaining from an attempt to cross the Piave and press upon the retreating enemy appears in the fact that the river constitutes a serious obstacle. Even if they are incapable of maintaining their ground on the west bank, the Ausfcrians might still bo ablo to inako the passage of the river by the Italians a- very costly process. Sir Herbert Plumer, who at first commanded the British divisions in Italy, mado an interesting reference to the Piave in a dispatch covering operations from November 10, 1917, to the end of February last. "The Piave," he stated, "is a very serious obstacle, especially at this season of the year, the breadth opposite the British front (then at Montello) being considerably over 1000 yards. Every form of raft and boat has been used, but , wading has proved the most successful, though the icy cold water made the difficulties even greater." The Piave is at present in flood, and must constitute an even more serious obstacle than when Sir Herbert Pi-umer wrote.

Late messages, including an Italian official report, supply full confirmation of the earlier statement that the are retiring across the Piave in disorder, andaro being pursued, but for the reasons that have been touchcd upon it would bo unwise to base undue expectations upon this event. The enemy may bo so demoralised as to be incapablo of contesting tho passago of the river. In that case, ho will be exposed to a damaging pursuit. but an extended Italian advanco beyond the Piave is unlikely to be witnessed in the near future unless tho signal defeat inflicted upon the enemy is of far move than local effect.

The possibilities of the situation are measured rather by political than by purely military factors. Today's* news relating to internal conin AuStria-Hungary and to the development of disorders is most encouraging as it bears upon the possibility that military defeat may lead to political collapse, but the extent to which this news reflects actual conditions will only be revealed by events. The portents certainly are of good promise, and indicate thiafc Austria has almost reached the limits of endurance in her career as tho servant of Germany and the instrument of Prussian, militarism. One of tho most suggestive messages of all in this connection declares that Germany is actively bestirring hersolf to improve the Austrian food supply. In view of her own economic straits, Germany would certainly not take action on these lines, savo under pressure of dire necessity. It is hardly worth while, however, to speculate about a state of affairs which; if ij; is being at all faithfully reported, will speedily result in developments of far-reaching importance as they bear upon tho trend and fate of tho war. One fchingi stands out clearly: Italy is magnificently retrieving Tier military disasters of last year and has won a victory which very greatly brightens bor own prospects and those of the Allies in general. It sometimes happens that tho British Commander-in-Chief issues his briefest reports on the immediate eve of great events. It is by no mcams unlikely that the precedent may hold good at the present stage of the Western campaign. In a communique which appears to-day Sir Douglas Haig contents himself with the bare statement that there is nothing to report, and indications generally are that the cnomy is about to ongagd in a maximum effort to reach his goal on tho AVcst front. No doubt the effort when it takes shape will be formidable, but the introduction of repatriated prisoners from Russia and other measures of reinforcement bo is now rounding off will hardly enable tho enemy to satisfactorily reconstitute tho elaborately traiueel armies with which he opened his offensive, and which havo been weakened to an enormous extent during three montlis of battle. It is another factor in tTic situation that tho Allies aro being reinforced on the West front not only by America, but by .Italy. This last reinforcement the enemy no doubt hoped to prevent, even when his hopes based on tho submarine campaign had faded, but tho turn of events in the Austro-Italian theatre suggests that Italian aid is likely to become a very important factor in the 'main Western campaign as it develops.