PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 130, 19 February 1918, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Tub crisis between the British Government and the General Stall is given a more serious aspect today by the statement that other Generals (notably General Plumer, the hero of Messincs) may follow Sir William Uouertson into retirement. The newspapers agree that the Litter's resignation will embarrass the Government, but will not affect tho course of the war. At this end of the world it is manifestly impossible to judge these developments in the light of evidence, but it is to be hoped that Mr. Lloyd George's promised statement in the House of Commons will relieve people in this country from any anxiety they may entertain regarding the future conduct of tho war. It is becoming more than ever necessary th'at tho Imperial units under the British flag should present a solid, united front to the enemy, but there can be no security of mind if Britannia fails to maintain her house in order. ■ * ( * *. *

With the advent of spring in Europe, the absorbing topic of interest and discussion is the expected German offensive in the West. Whatever the cnomy's plans may be,, we may rest assured that the Allied General Staff has fully appreciated the situation and provided for it. The impression created in the public mind so far is that the Germans intend to make a supreme effort to achieve a spectacular success by an overwhelming weight of men and metal, and that the metier of the Allies must inevitably be of a defensive kind. On all the other main European battlefronts the Teutonic forces have achieved, either by force of arms or by intrigue, successes which have provided a certain inspiration and stimulus to the Teutonic peoples. But the very prccariousness of these successes has brought it's own results. The morale of tho nation, merely temporarily sustained,by the apparent invincibility of the Austro-Gcrman armies, now demands something more tangible. The Teutonic peoples are not fools. _ They realise, as the lookers-on do, that if their armies cannot break the Western barrier disaster of the worst possible kind awaits them. Their Governments realise this also. Everybody expects, therefore, that the next great blow will be delivered as soon as possible. To this end the Germans havo spent a strenuous winter in attempting to dispose of Italy and Russia. Italy has been thrust back. Her territory has been invaded, positions of great strategic value have been wrested from her. Russia has been put out of action as a belligerent entity. * * # # But in spite of tho fact that tho Russian nation has been eliminated

as a military factor, it is by no means clear that Germany will be able to devote herself to a grand offensive in the.West undisturbed by side issues—far from it. The Central Empires arc believed to have concluded a peace with tho Ukraine. Having regard to the German control over the news from the Eastern theatre, no certainty can be credited to such statements. But even if such reports be truo there remains the Bolshevik factor. The peculiarity of tho Bolsheviki in the international situation' is that their aims are totally self-centred, or, rather, are subordinated to a cause which is not an essential issue of the Great War. That being so, thoy are prepared, and have so declared, their readiness to make war on all opposition to these aims, from whatever quarter. To concede anything of these aims would have been fatal to the plans of tho Imperial German Government, and the policy of the latter, since the failure of the Brest Litovsk negotiations was pre-ordained, has therefore been to make peace with that- section of Russia which is opposed to the Bolsheviki, and which, not unnaturally, was prepared to mako peace in order to render more easily possible tho ejectment of the Bolshevik rule in Northern Russia. Hence the treaty with the Ukraine—which the Bolsheviki deny—and the Germans' extreme anxiety to eliminate Rumania from the arena. If the Germans can eliminate Rumania, and leave the Ukraine to fight out to a finish the internal matter with the Bolsheviki, she will bo well rid of her embarrassments on tho Eastern front. But her security of action is purely fortuitous, and entirely dopcndeDt on tho internal course of events in Russia.

Another factor in the Eastern situation is the attitude of the Poles to the Ukraine settlement, which amounts practically to the dismemberment of Poland. The outstanding feature of Polish sentiment is its intense 'yearning for racial rights and the realisation of _ national aspirations. This attitude has constituted a constant source of embarrassment to the Austrian Government, as the governing authority over the Poles in Gahcia, and thtf Ukraine settlement has intensified it. So far, therefore, _ from evolving a peacefuL elimination of South Russia from the general war situation, the Gorman Government has created fresh complications, all of which 'aro calculated to reaet to the detriment of the German peace of mind. Germany, therefore, faces her Western task with the knowledge that she has disillusioned and estranged the Bolshcviki, angered tho Poles, and patched up a peace with the Ukraine which will be challenged by the Bolshcviki and tho Poles with equal vigour and persistence Each claims the right of self-determination as a basis of .-political future; that right is conceded by the Allies, but—as witness the Ukraine rejected by Germany. Meanwhile, _if _ to-day's dispatches are any criterion, the Ukraine settlement is more or less a figment of the German imagination. Kicff has been the scene of much sanguinary fighting between the Red and the White Guards. And in the north a resumption of hostilities with Germany is imminent.