The Dominion. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1918. THE WAR OUTLOOK

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 122, 9 February 1918, Page 6

The Dominion. SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1918. THE WAR OUTLOOK

During the season of inactivity inthe principal war theatres, much more has. been heard about the aggressive plans Germany is said to'be maturing' than about the measures the Allies are taking to meet the demands of the war in thfe immediate future. One result has been to. somewhat disturb the sense of values which is essential to' a. correct appreciation' of the facts of the war. But although the Allies are shaping their plans in secret, there is not the slightest room for doubt that their'action and not that of' Germany will determine the course of events when active operations are resumed. The arresting feature of the military situation at the present moment is not tho possibility that Germany may undertake a for-lorn-hope offensive in the Western theatre, but the fact that the Allies are in a position to regard this prospect with equanimity.' Some reports pretending to define the scope of Germany's' intended effort have plairly been exaggerated. To say, for instance, as an American correspondent did not long ago, that she is now at the zenith of her fighting power and is straining every nerve, to strike a supreme blow before American military power can too felt, is to credit her with a far better position that she actually holds. Probably Germany has moro men mobilised to-day than at any previous stage of the war, and certainly she is' numerically stronger on the West front than ever before.' But even where mere numbers are coucerned she is not as strong relatively to tho Allies as she was in 1914, and probably until 1915 was well advanced, and it is even more important that the quality of her armies has enormously deteriorated since tho early days of the war. The flower of her manhood has_ been cut off, and she is now drawing upon her last reserves of elderly men and youths. Account must be taken also of the state of tho German civil population. Three years ago the German people were filled with tho lust of conquest, and flushed with initial success, and so wore completely amonable to the will of their war lords. To-day the nation is a prey to internal dissensions, born of war-weariness and acute economic distress, and there have been at least incipient symptoms of revolt. It remains probable that if they 'succeed in averting or postponing an internal explosion, and are able to avoid unduly embarrassing complications in Russia, the rulers of Germany may concentrate upon a last powerful effort in the Western theatre. Nevertheless, it is necessary to look elsewhere for the factors that must be expected to determine tho course of nvents this year, and as long as the war may last. In spite of the habitual reticence of the Allies, there is ample evidence in sight on which to found a conclusion. It is to be noted in the first place that the Allies enjoy an absolute and marked preponderance in numerical and material strength,, and that against Germany's criminality and iron discipline they are

able to set the sustaining conscious- j ness of a just cause. Leaving ltussia out of account, the physical and moral endurance of the Allies lias been most signally demonstrated where it has 1 been most severely tried. Belgium to-day is bravely continuing the struggle with a bigger army in tho held than when the war began, and Italy, to cite another conspicuous example, has brilliantly overcome the perils which three monthsago threatened to develop to a point of fatality. If, may be asserted with all confidence that if Germany or Austria had at this stage suffered disasters relatively as great as. those which befel Italy in October, and-November last year, they would have gone down'in hopeless defeat, Italy has instead rallied magnificently, and in the successful attacks they drove home a few days ago her troops supplied convincing proof that they are still animated by the spirit which formerly enabled them to all but conquer the mighty mountain barrier beyond' the' Isonzo. Where not so long ago.triumphant success seemed to bo within his grasp, -the. enemy- is .faced.'by: yet another, proof that the Allies ;are filled with a spirit which defies disaster and finds in detail failure and defeat an incentive to augmented effort. To turn from scare stories about Germany's aggressive plans to consideration of- the actual march of -war-events is to realise that the Allies have at every point the/ fullest grounds for confidence. Last year the German public was solemnly assured that the submarines would starve and cripple England in a few months. To-day the failure of the submarine campaign is established in a fashion which does not .admit of' doubt.' : Submarines arc being destroyed as fast as they are built, mercantile losses are steadily declining, and the attack upon an. American transport reported to : day is an exceptional event which stands out;by -reason of its, rarity. With the failure of the submarines' the enemy's last hope of preventing' the concentration of.'an, overwhelming force in the Western theatre has dispeared. At the same time, with the winter nearly over, Germany has failed utterly to retrievo the heavy and demoralising defeats'suffered by her Ottoman allies in 'Mesopotamia and.-in-Palestine, and the Allied lines in Macedonia are about to be •reinforced by the Greek Armv at full war strength, 'To the other ■■problems-'with which she is- confronted in tho main and minor theatres, Germany must add that of coping with tho vast aerial fores which the- Allies are developing apace, and which in all likelihood is destined to hasten her defeat. Of all the reports which have lately given- a glimpse of Allied.. measures and preparations, none are of better promise than those dealing with the proceedings of the Supreme War Council at' Versailles. Closing an inter-Allied conference at Paris just after the inaugural meeting of the Supreme War Council, M. ClEmenceau. observed that a guttural voice had made itself heard from the other side of the trenches mocking at the Allied deliberations. In recent days the "guttural voice" has been raised in.a, very different strain, German newspapers have ruefully admitted that "it is evident that the Allies were never so determined during the war." The perturbation thus betrayed is. no doubt warranted. We have-it from'- Mn.- Bonak Law that the functions of the Supreme War Council have* been enlarged, and the inference, is that'the Allies have developed measures of co-ordination which will enable them to make- more effective use of their aggregate force than at any previous, stage of the war. ....