OFT-DEBATED POINT

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 119, 6 February 1918, Page 6

OFT-DEBATED POINT

"HOW LONG WILL THE WAR LAST"? GENERAL GOURKO'S OPTIMISM (By Gc-neral Gourko, the Great Russian Leader in the Early Days of the War —by arrangement in the Sydney "Sun.")

Provided the Allies suffer no further untoward set-back like the Russian Revolution, I think the war will bo over in the autumn of 1918. Although I am very strongly of the opinion that Germany has lost the war in that she has failed to achieve that which she set out to accomplish, it would bo nothing short of disastrous if tho Allies slackened up under the delusion that the war was won beyond all doubt. The Russian Revolution has given tho Germans the opportunity successfully to undertake spectacular campaigns as a setoff to tho continual pressure on their linos in France and Belgium. Germany is fighting for the future. The dramatic landing in the Gulf of Riga, the combined attacks on Italy, and the succcssful invasion of Rumania last year are all part of a flamboyant project to bewilder their war-weary people with their invincibility. But all these campaigns mean nothing. I am sure in its heart of hearts the German Command know only too well it has lost the war. Nothing is simpler than to detach an overwhelming forco to ensure spectacular success. Wlien Huns Will Crack. I do not think that Germany will fight on until she is completely crushed. She will continue until such time as defeat is beyond all doubt or until tho conquered territories she is now occupying look like slipping from her grasp. Then she will notify her willingness to enter into peace negotiations, and with her occupied territories as pawns will say to the conference, "I hold these as security for favourable treatment."

The Allies are not likely to be blinded by such diplomacy. In a way tho rapid changing of German troops from one front to another is of distinct value to the Allies. It has tho effect of keeping their armies of the Central Empires ill a state of continual disorder, although, of course, tho neutral world is perhaps deeply impressed by the apparently unending supply of troops which Germany appears to possess. Nothing is more certain than that this shuffling of divisions represents a desperate attempt to convince tho world that she is still ill a position to concentrate men in any number. Recent Enemy Successes, Whether the Germans iniagino they are impressing the Allied commanders with their reccnt conquests is very doubtful. No great soldier worthy of tho name would treat tlieni of ,my military value. Bather would bo see in them a rat-like effort to escape from a trap which every day clftses around tighter. The remorseless pressure of the French and British armies on the Western front and, tho enormous preponderance in heavy artillery which the Allies possess make any attempt at an attack there improbable. So expeditions are launched on lonely parts of the Russian coast in combination with the navy. Such'tactics do not impress the peoplo who understand. The war is now entering tho most difficult phase nf all —that of absolute endurance. It is for the Allied nations to see that they do not crack. Germany believes that she can wear the Allies sufficiently to enable her to negotiate a peace (satisfactory to herself. But that will Hot do. If a lasting peace is to be maintained Germany will have to be in o position where acceptance of tho Allied terms will be ail imperative necessity. Peace oil anything like equal terms would be disastrous to us.

In twelve month's time Genna-iv will nrobahly have hud enough of fighting. Her efforts up to date liave been superhuman and worthv of a forty years' preparation. With losses proportionate to those.of the last year, the German man power will have reached a eorv low ebb. Germany wants peace badly; all the signs point to that. Put the Allies will appreciate to the full tho "imnos.-ibilitv of treating with a nation (lushed with cheap conquest.