PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 109, 25 January 1918, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

The latest submarine return shows losses at the same low level as those of last week. In each week six ships over 1600 tons and two of smaller tonnage were sent to tho bottom. Fluctuations must, of course, still, be oxpected, but these favourable returns promise at least tentatively a continuation of that downward curve in British shipping losses which is one of the factors pointing to the ultimate defeat of tho enemy submarine campaign. Looking at the table of British losses week by 'week which is published in our news columns, it will be found that tho average losses «ocr week in eightweekly periods, from the beginning of April—the_ month in which the enemy campaign reached its height —show upon the whole a steady decline. The averages arc set out in the table printed below.' It will be noticed that at the beginning of this year the enemy was sinking British ships at just about half the rate attained in April, 1917: Average British losses per week Ships over to: All ships. 1600 tons. Jtay 23 .',5 24 .Tilly 18 23 17 Sept. 12 20.75- 17.375 Nov. 7 18.25 12.125 Jan. 2 16.5 12.275 In the last three weeks reported upon losses of large and small British ships have averaged a fraction over twelve per week, while the average weekly loss of ships over 1600 tons has been ten. The figures of the last two, weeks show a pronounced drop from this average. Rumours are current that the Germans are recalling submarines to their bases in connection with a new spring campaign, but another and perhaps more probable explanation of the recent drop in losses is supplied in a message which states that twenty-two Gorman submarines disappeared during December. It seems, on the whole, unlikely that tho enemy has voluntarily relaxed his efforts, and, while the report regarding the destruction of 22 submarines in December is unofficial, the fact is established on the best authority that submarines are being disposed of at an increasing rate.

While tho Admiralty returns point to an improving outlook in tho contest with the submarines, ])u. Macnamaim's replies to questions in tho House of Commons show that some serious detail losses havo lately been incurred. Two ships, possibly transports, have been torpedoed in the Mediterranean, with heavy loss of life, and some other facts were, elicited which at an immediate view look damaging. The disclosures, however, are, too fragmentary to throw any veal light on the situation. Whatever may have happened in particular cases, tho general outlook is manifestly improving. * * * *

Anothkr story about an impending German offensive comes from a Paris correspondent by way of Now York. Several French writers, it is stated, are of opinion that Nancy will be one. of the enemy's principal objectives—that is to say, they expect hira to attack again the eastern frontier defences which he attacked vainly in the early days of the war. The correspondent adds that France has perfected her defences, and that the enemy attack is doomed to failure. The idea that

tho enemy will make a tremendous effort tins year to overwhelm the French armies in the main theatre lias been widely canvassed, particularly in America, and it has some surface plausibility. France lias suffered heavily—much more heavily than her principal Allies—and her ability to endure to the end is a vital condition of Entente victory. It may therefore be taken for granted that if Germany were free to concentrate against franco all her resources available for an offensive she would do so without hesitation. This, however, is precisely the stale of affairs that Germany cannot hope to command or even to remotely approach. Attempting a concentrated attack on France, her prospects would be limited, not only by the fact that the French armies arc still immensely powerful and keyed to a high pitch of resolution, but because she would at the same time confer a superlative opportunity upon the British armies in France and Flanders.

Indued, it would be diliicult to imagine a more favourable opening •of this year's campaign from the Allied point of view than that Germany should, as the message under notice suggests, concentrate her principal striking forces in Lorraine. She would undoubtedly be resisted in this area as resolutely as he was resisted at Verdun. But it is oven more important that by such a policy she would invite a smash: ing return blow froni the British armies. Any suggestion that France may bo called upon to bear tho brunt of whatever offensive tho enemy attempts this year may safely bo dismissed as absurd. The French are holding a' lino four times as I long as that of their British Allies, but the British armies took tli«l lion's share of last year's fighting, and they will undoubtedly continno to do so until Germany is beaten or until America has assembled an even more powerful army, in the Western theatre than the British Empire. In Flanders and on other sections of the front, including the Cambrai sector,- tho British armies are better placed than they haveevcr been to build upon their past achievements, and the possibilities of the situation will 'undoubtedly bo exploited to the fullest possible extent as soon'is tho weather permits. Whether she attacks in Lorraine or in Flanders, or does not attack at all, Germany has to reckon upon a full-powered effort this year by the British armies, and any suggestion that she is free to concentrate undividedly upon a selected objective is widely removed from 'the facts.

. At time of writing only early reports arc available- of tho proceedings of the British Labour Conference* at Nottingham, but while Mr. Purdy's presidential address is marked'by sanity and a competent grasp of vital war issues, it would appear that very different"views have also found expression. The remarkable statement is attributed to Mr. Arthur Henderson that all the Socialist parties in Europe now agree with the. Bolshcviki, and "so docs President Wilson's published stateIf Mr. Henderson is perfectly in accord with President Wilson in regard to crushing German militarism and forcing a\just settlomenfc of the war, witli the territorial adjustments on the basis of nationality which are essential to such a settlement, he would do something to clear the air by saying so in plain terms, but tho attempt to identify President^Wilson with the distempered fanatics who arc now doing all that can be done to ruin Russia is so extravagantly ludicrous that it is difficult to boliovc that it was made by Mr. Henderson, or anybody else. Dangerous doctrine was preached at the conference by Mb, Huysiians, who advocates an International Labour Conference such as it was proposed to hold some time ago at Stockholm. The objections to such a course aro manifest. It is the business of responsible Governments to undertake negotiations at the proper time. Approval of the proposed international conference would be hailed by the enemy as a sign of Allied weakness, and he. would find at the conference extended facilities for underground intrigues.