PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 90, 9 January 1918, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

According to Mn. Philip Gibus the frost is breaking on the Western front, but he considers that this month, and "with luck," February- also, may pass before big battles are again witnessed. Mk. Gibbs does not say on what grounds he bases his opinion that the Germans, if they undertake an offen- 1 sivo, are likely to delay launching it until March, and there are some obvious reasons for expecting them to move at an earlier date. They opened their Verdun offensive on February 21, and apart from other advantages attending action at the earliest possible moment they have a particular incentive to make an early beginning this year in tho f&ct that the time is drawing nearer when tho Americans will take their place on the battlcfront as an effective addition to the Allied strength. A well-informed correspondent like Mr. Gibbs would _ certainly not overlook these considerations, and there must bo some definite foundation for his belief that if the enemy attacks this year he will probably do so at a later date than he selected in 191 C. Tho explanation is perhaps to be found in a belief that an enemy offensive would necessarily take shape in Flanders, where, owing to the condition of the ground, operations on a big scale will not be possible at as early a date as on other sections of the Western front. There is a good deal to support the view that tho enemy must strike in Flanders, if anywhere. It is here that his defensive line has been most dangerously laid open by the all but complete conquest of the screening ridges upon which he was established prior to the battles of last summer. Tn 'normal course the return of good weather will give the signal for a renewal of the British offensive directly threatening the enemy's hold on the coas't of Flanders and also the vital section of his lino which covers Lille, on thu sguth. Concerlrating

for ;in offensive on any other part of the front tho enemy would invite a particularly damaging coun-ter-stroko in Flanders. It accordingly seems probable that if he adopts a policy of desperation his offensivo will he developed in the territory which in this war and in many past wars has figured as tho cockpit of Europe.

A message based upon particulars supplied by the French Ministry of' 1 Marine furnishes the latest available information relating to the progress of _ tho anti-submarine campaign. It includes tho particularly encouraging statement that the enemy's losses of submarines have steadily increased sinco September, 1916, and were nine times greater in the last quarter of 1917 than in the corresponding period of 1916. At tho beginning of November last tho-, First Lord of the Admiralty stated that as many submarines were destroyed in one quarter of 1917 as during the whole of 1916. The form of the French report does .not permit an exact comparison, hut it obviously indicates that the rate at which submarines are being destroyed is still rapidly increasing.

Much of to-day's nows omphasises the importance of Mr. Lloyd George's recent speeoh as tending to strengthen and confirm determination in Allied countries, and sonic indications aro given also of its effect upon tho enemy. As faithful mouthpieces of military bureaucracy, the German newspapers indulge in scornful criticism, but the really interesting feature of their comments is the unanimity with which they avoid touching actual issues raised. In particular not one of the newspapers quoted today even refers to the cardinal point which Mr. Lloyd George brought out so plainly, that tho Allies aim at a settlement which will be just in every detail and will restore the reign of international law, while Germany's single disclosed aim is to retain as inuch as possible of the proceeds of her crimes. Tho Vossische Zeiiwng describes the speech as the first tangible British peace offer. In point of fact Mr. Lloyd George did nob name a; single condition of peace which had not been previously proclaimed by himself or by other Allied statesmen. What he' did, in speaking of peace terms, was to give tho clearest possible prominence to the fact that while the Allied objects in the war are determined by regard not merely for national interests but for the interests of all humanity, Germany is reduced to silence becauso her attitude is on all fours with that of'a baffled and cornered criminal, still clutching his victim and in possession of stolen goods. Vaguely charging the Allies with imperialistic aims and indulging in bellicose declarations that an answer to . the statement of Allied aims will ,bo given by tho submarines and by the German troops on the West front, the enemy newspapers merely emphasise the force and truth of the British Prime Minister's indictment.

A certain amount of light is thrown upon political conditions in Germany by messages relating to a split between the Pan-German annexationists and more moderate elements over the Brest Litovsk negotiations. A Pan-German newspaper is quoted as declaring that Germans must choose between Hindenmjjig and Ludendorfk or Kuhlmann and Hurtling, and it asserts also that renunciation in the East is Kuhljiann's watchword and that renunciation; in the West will follow. It is plain,from accompanying news that renunciation iis it is understood by Kuhhiann is very far from opening the way" .to such a peace* as the Allies demand, and there is the less reason' to ■ regret that the military party seems for the time being to have gained the upper hand. It is reported to-day that "German democrats are.agitating for the removal of Hindenubko and-Ludendorff in order to end military influence over Germany's political policy." Whether this agitation is destined to gather effective head time must show, but it is moro likely to do.so with the most uncompromising militarists at the head of affairs than if power wore centred in leaders who cloak their unscrupulous aims in professions of moderation.