PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 11, Issue 57, 30 November 1917, Page 4

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

A statement transmitted from New York that "Italy is safe from further invasion" is obviously one of opinion, and not of fact, but the opinion it embodies receives strong support from detail news and is endorsed by the "high military authority" who has taken rtip the duties of official commentator on tho British operations. In tho course of the comments published to-day he declares that the crisis in Italy has' now definitely passed, and that the Italians checked tho enemy by their own efforts beToro tho arrival of Allied assistance. This is a par-

ticularly satisfactory pronouncement, and its force is not weakened by the further observations that Germany went to Italy because Austria was shaky and wanted help, and not to make & great attack, and that there is no sign of great German reinforcements in Italy becaiuse Germany is clearly unab'e to send them. This emphasises the

fact that the Italian disaster was only made possible by intrigue and treachery, but it remains true that the Italian armies, after suffering a heavy initial defeat, made a splendid recovery and gallantly extricated themselves from a desperately critical situation. _ The Italians were so heasily handicapped by their initial defeat and the terrible losses it involved that a magnificent effort on their part has been needed to bring the enemy, to a halt. It holds good also that the enemy offensive is now suspended in such conditions that he will find it exceedingly difficult to retain tho advantage ho has gained.

< * * *. The high military authority prei sumably has grounds for his statement that tho Germans did not contemplate- a great attack on Italy, but it cannot be believed that the lino they now occupy is tho goal they selected when thejr opened their offensive. They have either gone too far or not far enough. They have not overwhelmed the Italian armies, though they have of late incurred very heavy losses in attempting to compass that achievement, and they would have occupied a better defensive line without leaving the Isonzo than they now hold on the Italian plain. It may not bo long before the oncroy in his turn is called upon to play a defensive role in Italy. One report to-day states that the Italians have completely reorganis-' cd their reserves and ro-enlablißhcd their numerical superiority; also that tho Italian war factories have replaced the whole number nf guns which were lost. Thin ht.nl item is perhaps open to doubt. It idriuis at best that gunH held in iviifirvit have been Kent to tho front, and wrUinly cannot be taken lo nirn.ii Unit tho

Italians are. aa well off in tho matter of artillery an when they possessed the two thousand or moro guns lost in the rotrcat, Nevertheless, in view of their lino recovery, it is not at all unlikely that they may presently find themselves in a position to take the offensive in conlitnction with their Allies. J * * * *

Not tho least serious aspect of tho unfavourable turn of events in Ilussia rests on tho fact mentioned today by M. lUncßr. Hutin, that Russia has captured some 1,700,000 Aus-tro-Gorruan prisoners, and that an exchange, of prisoners following on a separate peace between Russia and tho Central Empires would substantially reinforce tho enemy's failing man-power. Though the position is serious enough it is not as serious as the mention of 1,700,000 enemy prisoners in Russia would in itself suggest. Tii the first place, this total probably includes an appreciable proportion of maimed and disabled men, but it is much moro important

that a very large proportion of Russia's prisoners entered willingly into captivity. This does not apply in general to tho Germans, but the Gorman prisuners in Russia are a minority. Much the grealcr proportion were taken from the Austrian armies, and of these again a very largo proportion aro members of subject races in the Dual Monarchy, Bohemians, Polos, and others, who much preferred captivity to fighting for their hated oppressors. Not a few of them, indeed, sought service in the Russian ranks. An exchange of prisoners with Russia would mean at best a certain accession of strength to the enemy, but it would assuredly not add anything like 1,700,000 men to his existing armies.

At time of writing no new light is thrown nipon the Bolshevik peacemove, but some reports of fighting, on tho main front as well as in the Middle East, indicate that the extremists are very far from having attained undisputed control. The outlook is unpromising, but a formal conclusion of peace is not yet in sight.

No lato events are reported on the Cambrai front, and up to the present the costly efforts made by the Germans to retrieve their late overwhelming defeat have totally failed. The recent battle is interestingly reviewed by the "high military authority," and his comments, while they show that some of the unofficial reports of the affair were cast in an exaggerated vein, show also that the hopes with which tho attack was launched were more than realised.

Some very encouraging accounts have been given lately of the progress of the anti-submarine campaign, notably a statement by Mr. Lloyd Georoe that five of the underwater craft were destroyed, on one day, but the figures of British ships sunk last week are the worst for some timo past. Fourteen ships over 1600 tons and seven of smaller tonnago were sent to the bottom. It is over a period that the results of tho anti-submarine campaign must be considered, and while the current figures manifestly imply that the submarine is still a formidable factor, it need not bo supposed that they in any way invalidate the confident belief expressed by authorities like Sib Eric Geddes and the British Prime Minister that tho submarine campaign will bo defeated. It is to bo remembered also that although last week's losses were higher than those of immediately preceding weeks, they aro very much lower than those recorded when this year's campaign was at its height.

Statistics of American shipbuilding which have- recently been made public suggest that if the Allies aro not already constructing ships faster than they are losing them, it will not be long before that position is reached. Last month there were under construction in the United States 350 wooden, 58 composite, and 225 steel vsesels for the Emergency Fleet Corporation. Bcsiues these, 403 vessels under construction have been requisitioned. This makes a total of 1039 vessels, with a. tonnage of 5,924,700. Further plans provide for the building of additional ships aggregating nearly 5,000,000 tons. At the end of September, the American Shipping Board made public figures showing that it is intended that by October 1, 1918, the United States should havo in operation 10,000,000 tons of ocean-going shipping. At present, it is stated, all merchant ships engaged in the Atlantic trade represent 25,500,000 cross tons. Of that amount lingland is operating 13,400,000 gross tons, or nearly 53 per cent., and the United States something over 2,000,000 gross tons, or about 8 per cent. If expectations are realised, America will enormously improve on this percentage within the- next twelve months.

Like the items in the same category which preceded it, the Allied secret treaty relating to _ the partial partition of Asiatic Turkey which has been published at Petrograd is unsensational in its details, and certainly contains nothing inconsistent with Loud Robert Cecil's denial that "the secret tteaties published at Petrograd revealed that the Allies were committed to vast territorial aggrandisement." Tho treaty covers an agreement by Russia, France, and Britain under which Russia was to retain, portion of tho territory in Armenia from which her armies have expelled the Turks, whilo France was to receive the seaboard of Syria, the villayet of Adana (skirting the northern coast of the Gulf of Alexandretta),-and Lesser Armenia (portion of Cilicia, extending inland from Alexandretta): and Britain LoV»cr Mesopotamia. Under tho treaty, Alexandretta was to be a free port, and Palestine- was to become a protectorate under the three contracting Powers. Tho independent Aramian State to bo constituted between the French and I British zones was evidently to consist of Northern Mesopotamia and of territory between the Euphrates and the Mediterranean seaboard. Aram is a geographical term formerly applied to Mesopotamia and the regions extending south-west from tho Euphrates to Palestine, but not including Palestine. It is clear that in this agreement the Allies proposed not so much to seizo territory as to assume responsibility for tho welfare of races now groaning under Turkish misrule. Tho creation of an independent Armenia might bo preferable to the annexation by Russia of the villaycts named, but sinco tho Turks have practically exterminated the Armenian population of these villayeta and others, the early restoration of Armenian independence can hardly bo regarded as practicable. It is undoubtedly right that the inhabitants of tho territories montioned in tho treaty should be freed from Turkish rule, and owing to the polyglot character of the population somo form of protectorate is in most cases the only possible alternative

Various reports have declared that the British authorities arc concentrating upon the construction of "tanks" and arc perfecting new types, and tho roports are no doubt well founded. The distinguished part they played in tho successful offensive in the Cambrai region is a late and convincing indication that the "tanks" have won a permanent place in the Allied military organisation. Further evidence on the poiut is afforded in the fact that tho United States Government has made provision for the construction of a strong force, or fleet, of "tanks." Congress some timo ago approved an item of over £4,350,000 for armoured can, but a military advisor informed the committee which reviewed the empowering legislation that tin money would be devoted to the construction of i

"tanks." The "tanks" to be manufactured in the United States, according to an American report, will carry a light three-inch gun of the howitzer typo, and will he designed to carry eight or ten men each. It is estimated that the appropriation made will provide for the construction of 2000 or 3000 "tanks." Since this allows only about £2000 per "tank," or considerably less than that amount if three thousand arc to be paid for out of the sum named, it is implied that the American "tanks' , will bo comparatively email and lightly armoured.