PROGRESS OF THE WAR

Dominion, Volume 10, Issue 3154, 4 August 1917, Page 6

PROGRESS OF THE WAR

It is estimated that the German casualties on the first day of the third Battle of Ypres totalled twenty thousand. By this time the total must have been largely increased, for to-day's reports show that the enemy is doggedly persisting in his counter-attacks on the high positions won by the- Allies in their splendidly successful offensive stroke. The enemy is persisting in spite of continued failure. The. recapture of St. Julicn, three- miles north-east of Ypres, is his only recorded success to date. Other advanced positions on the new British line which he was reported yesterday to have entered he has since lost. Of the later fighting Sir Douglas Haig reports that in the area, north-east of Ypres strong enemy forces repeatedly attacked, undeterred by increasingly severe losses, but that in every case the advancing lines were broken up and dispersed. As a whole reports today bring out very clearly the twofold aspect of the Allied success. The enemy has been dislodged from an extensive range of important positions, with the result tffat he is dangerously exposed to further attack, and at the same time the Allies are meeting with pronounced success in the provocative tactics which from the first have had a prominent place in their offensive plan. At all times they have aimed at compelling the enemy to expend his diminishing reserves in futile coun-« ter-attacks, and it is probablo-that they havo seldom pursued these tactics more successfully than during the last day or two on the Flanclort. front. The ruling conditions by this time are familiar. JTho onemy is bringing up his reserves to the atback over an area swept by the firo of an artillery much superior to his own. He is thus developing his counter-attacks at maximum tfost, but has achieved nothing of moment. He is incurring terrible losses because he feels it necessary at all costs to restore am? strengthen his weakened line, bub thus far all his efforts to that end have failed. Vkry possibly Sin William Robertson had existing conditions in Flanders in mind when he observed, in the course of a statement appearing to-day: "Supposing it is impossible to. roll up the enemy's flanks, you can still break his heart and destroy his people's confidence." So long as the enemy is able to mass reserve divisions on his broken line | the task of rolling up his flank is one tho Allies may prefer to postpone in favour of the alternative policy which is now in visible operation. This alternative, however, holds little comfort for the enemy, and it is tho antithesis of tjT<>"?fcalemate which once upon a time- was predicted as inevitable. Any hopes the Germans may formerly Have entertained of an economical defence and an approach to stalemate wore rudely dispelled very soon after the Allies opened their offensive last year. In the development of the Western campaign to date the Allies have made the capture- of positions —even positions the possession of which, as Sir William Robertson remarks, the enemy regarded as a matter of life and death—merely a means to the- end of using up the German reserves not by a process of gradual attrition, but at a rate which sets very definite limits to tho possible duration of tho German defensive stand.

Wkitixg in Land and Water a couple of months ago, Mr. Hilaike Belloc threw interesting light upon this question of the exhaustion 'of German reserves. Just before the British offensive was launched en April 0, he stated, the Allied high command counted the number of divisions at the moment available to Germany upon every front, at 219, and communicated that figure to the- Press. "Of these,"Jic added, "a-s has been the case for a long time, a third, the worst third (tha-t is, the men drawn from tihe oldest classes in point of age, and men recruited from the worst recruiting fields in point of quality), were stretched out—74 or 75 divisions— between the Danube and the. Baltic Sea.' It was an extremely tenuous line, just barely sufficient for the task of watching an opponent whom tkoencray knew would be immobilised by winter, and who, After the winter, would remain an uncertain factor on account of the Revolution and its consequences. The remaining two-thirds, the best two-thirds, and immensely the best, part of the artillery, let alone of accumulated munitionment, lay upon the- West between the Alps and the North Sea There were ]43 or 144 division's thus stretched, across France and Belgium, of which rather more than two-thirds, or, say, 100, held the Hne, while rather more than 40 —probably 44—were held .in reserve. The attack began, bs we all

know, upon April 9. Within the first, fortnight 32 fresh divisions had been dragged into the fighting, and half that number, 16 divisions, had had 1,0 l)o withdrawn for reorganisation as the result of their losses." Since the period to which these comments relate the- German Western armies have boon subjected for three months to the most terrible pressure ever imposed in the history of warfare— a, continuous bombardment of appalling power and innumerableprovocative local attacks varied by occasional heavy attacks like the assault on Messines Ridge* and the latest offensive in Flanders. The rate at which the exhaustion of the enemy's reserves is proceeding is indicated in reports like that which came through recently in reference to tho enemy's abortive attempts to recover the dominating positions seized by the French north of the Aisno and in the Champagne. The report stated that in these unsuccessful operations the enemy employed approximately one-third of his total divisions available for service in all theatres. ■ This, of course, implies enormous losses. It is now reported that in the present Flanders offensive the bulk of thirteen divisions have already been so punished and shaken that their recovery will be slow and costly. It is a material fact that the enemy, though he is making headway against the Russians, has no immediate prospect of creating conditions in the Eastern theatre which would enable him to transfer strength from east to west. Making every allowance for tha fact that the enemy still has : some reserves to draw'upon', it is evident that, the Western Allies have good prospects of imposing a strain upon his line in France and Flanders under which it will collapse, and that Sir AViLLiAM Robertson did not use empty phrases when he said that in default of rolling up the enemy's flank you can still break his heart' and destroy his people's confidence. *n* * *

It is, of course, far from certain that the Allies have already settled down to an extended period of stationary fighting in Flanders. The policy of provocative attack, it has been said, presupposes, 'up to the breaking-point; warfare almost stationary, but the qualification is important. It is by invading and weakening the enemy's line that the Allies have provoked the counterattacks in which he is rapidly expending- his reserves, and they are certainly in a position to intensify the provocation on the Flanders front at the present stage if they so desire. The military correspondent of the London Times remarks to-day that Sin Douglas Hakj, in his latest attack, used only a fraction of the troops at his disposal, and it is not unlikely that the enemy may soon have additional reasons for feeling nervous about his hold on Lille and on the Belgian coast. In any case, so long as the enemy is under the necessity of expending his strength in heav} but abortive counter-attacks, such as he is now making in Flanders, the Allies arc actively and successfully hastening his defeat. It is strictly within the facts to say that the enemy is counter-attacking in accordance with the Allied plan. This would hold good without reservation, if the Germans attempted the counter-offensive on a big scale at which Colonel Repington bints to-day. In mentioning this possibility, however, Colonel Repington is probably expressing a desire rather than an expectation.

No improvement is disclosed in the Russian situation. It cannot be regarded as good news-that General Brusiloff has resigned the chief command. His successor, General Kojsniloff, is a commander of tried ability and high reputation, but Brusiloff's retirement is a disquieting indication that political disorders arc fatally handicapping military efficiency. A vague suggestion is now made that the late Commander-in-Chiof is not a whole-hearted supporter of the Revolution, but reports at the time indicated that his immediate, participation was a big factor in making the Revolution possible. The armies on the southern front arc still ietreating, but no pronounced change in-the military outlook is disclosed at time of writing. A'German report indicates that the Rumanians arc still attacking in South Western Moldavia, but their general position is now plainly jeopardised by developments in and beyond Galicia and in Bukowina.